預警: 金融世界過度膨脹的先兆

This week America’s corporate world passed a milestone. The value of deals in US-bound mergers and acquisitions aMounted to $243bn in May, according to Dealogic — a monthly record. The previous monthly peaks were in May 2007 and January 2000, when deals worth respectively $226bn and $213bn were struck.

美國企業上週跨越了一座里程碑。Dealogic的數據顯示，美國併購交易價值在今年5月達到2430億美元，創下單月最高紀錄。上兩次的單月最高紀錄分別出現在2007年5月和2000年1月，簽署的協議價值分別爲2260億美元和2130億美元。

Meanwhile, so far this year, $1.85tn deals have been done globally; if this continues 2015’s total could top the annual record of $4.6tn deals s in 2007.

與此同時，今年以來全球簽署的併購協議價值達到1.85萬億美元，如果持續這種趨勢的話，2015年全年併購交易價值將超過2007年創造的4.6萬億美元的最高年度紀錄。

What should policy makers and investors conclude? If you want to be optimistic, you might see this as a welcome return of animal spirits. In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, corporate executives were so scarred — and scared — that their priority was to cut corporate debt and costs. But now the C-suite feels more ambitious. And what is particularly striking is that the current M&A frenzy is affecting not just one industry, as during the tech boom, but a wide range, including retail, oil, pharma and tech.

政策制定者和投資者應該據此得出什麼結論？如果你想樂觀一點，你可以將此視爲動物精神值得歡迎的迴歸。2008年金融危機爆發後最初那段時間，企業高管受到了如此大創傷，也感到如此恐慌，因此他們把削減企業債務和成本放在第一位。但現在那些頭銜裏掛着“首席”兩個字的企業高管(C-suite)更樂於進取了。尤其引人矚目的是，當前的併購熱潮不是像科技熱時期那樣，僅席捲了一個行業，而是席捲了包括零售、石油、製藥和科技在內的衆多行業。

But there is a second, darker interpretation of this trend: namely that the western financial system is drowning in excess cash and credit. History suggests such a scenario rarely ends well. After all, the crucial point about the two previous M&A peaks is that they coincided with equity and credit bubbles. Shortly afterwards, those bubbles burst — with painful consequences.

但對這種趨勢的另一種較爲悲觀的解讀是：西方金融體系正淹沒在過多的現金和信貸當中。歷史經驗顯示，此類境況很少會有好的結果。畢竟，關於前兩次併購交易高潮的一個關鍵事實是，它們正好與股票和信貸出現泡沫的時間重合。在前兩次併購交易創出最高紀錄後不久，那些泡沫都破裂了，並帶來了令人痛苦的後果。

Moreover, the backdrop to the current M&A flurry is unnerving. Since the 2008 crisis American corporate profits have surged to record levels: Goldman Sachs, for example, calculates that margins for the S&P 500 (excluding financials and utilities) are about 9 per cent. In normal circumstances, that should have sparked a corporate investment boom; indeed, this is what policy makers have been desperately hoping to see.

此外，當前併購熱潮的背景令人不安。自2008年金融危機以來，美國企業利潤飆升至創紀錄的水平：例如，高盛(Goldman Sachs)估計，（不包括金融和公用事業企業在內的）標普500成分股企業的利潤率大約爲9%。在正常情況下，這理應引發企業投資熱潮，實際上，這也是政策制定者一直渴望看到的。

But that has not occurred. On the contrary, investment as a proportion of operating cash flow has actually fallen from 29 per cent to 23 per cent in the past five years, Goldman says, apparently because companies are gloomy about the growth outlook.

但投資熱潮並未出現。相反，高盛表示，投資佔營業現金流的比例在過去5年裏實際上已從29%下降至23%，這顯然是因爲企業對增長前景感到悲觀。

This means they need to find other uses for their cash. Many have poured money into share buybacks: S&P 500 companies spent a record $133bn on buybacks in April this year, BlackRock says. They are paying hefty dividends, too. Indeed, analysts project that combined outlays on dividends and buybacks will exceed $1,000bn this year in America, more than expected spending on operations and research.

這意味着他們需要爲資金找到其他用途。許多公司拿出大量資金用於股份回購：貝萊德(BlackRock)表示，今年4月，標普500成分股公司用於股份回購上的資金達到創紀錄的1330億美元。他們也派發了豐厚的股息。實際上，分析師預計，今年美國企業用於紅利派息和股份回購的資金總額將會超過1萬億美元，高於預計的營運和研發支出。

But, unsurprisingly, money is flooding into M&A deals, too, as executives seek eye-catching ways to show they are earning their salaries.

但不出所料的是，資金也在流入併購交易，因爲企業高管尋求通過引人矚目的方法來表明他們不白拿薪水。

Some bankers argue that this is not a bad tactic; or not compared to the other dismal options. “In our view, acquisitions — particularly in the form of stock deals — represent a more compelling strategic use of cash than buybacks given the current stretched valuation of US equities,” says David Kostin of Goldman Sachs in a note to clients.

一些銀行家辯稱，這種策略並不壞，至少不比其他一些糟糕選擇更壞。高盛的戴維•科斯京(David Kostin)在一份寫給客戶的報告中表示：“在我們看來，鑑於美國股市當前估值過高，把資金用於收購——尤其是以股票協議的形式收購——比用於回購更具戰略說服力。”

The problem for policy makers is that this burst of M&A enthusiasm is unlikely to deliver much of an economic boost. Nor will it offer much long-term value for shareholders, judging by what happened in 2000 and 2007. And what is doubly unnerving is that, while the M&A drive was initially funded by excess cash and stock, it now seems to be more debt-fuelled too. This week, for example, Dealogic also revealed that corporate bond issuance in 2015 has hit a record level of $543.4bn. That has pushed the investment grade debt-to-equity ratio to 85 per cent, compared with 72 per cent in 2010.

在政策制定者看來，問題在於，這股突然迸發的併購熱潮不太可能大舉推動經濟增長。從2000年和2007年的情況來看，它也不會爲股東帶來多少長遠價值。更令人不安的是，儘管併購最初是由多餘的現金和股票提供的融資，但現在它似乎更多地也是通過舉債融資。例如，上週Dealogic還披露稱，2015年企業債券發行量達到了創紀錄的5434億美元。這讓投資級企業的債務股本率達到了85%，而2010年的這一比例是72%。

The M&A bankers who are orchestrating this activity insist that 2015 will be different from 2000 or 2007. Chief executives have learnt the right lessons from history and are chasing only those acquisitions that make strategic sense — or so the argument goes. Separately, some policy observers argue that this M&A fever will naturally cool down later in the year as the prospect of a US interest rate rise draws closer. And who knows? If economic growth continues, companies may eventually start to embrace investment with the same gusto they currently embrace M&A or buybacks.

這一併購熱潮的策略者、從事併購業務的銀行業人士堅稱，2015年將不同於2000年或者2007年，因爲首席執行官們從過去發生的事情中汲取了應有的教訓，只追逐那些具有戰略價值的併購。至少，他們給出的理由是這樣的。另外，一些政策觀察人士辯稱，隨着美國加息那一天日趨臨近，這種併購熱潮將在今年晚些時候自然而然地冷卻下來。誰知道呢？如果經濟繼續增長，公司可能最終拿出他們當前用於併購或者回購的勁頭來投資。

But do not bet on that happening. The more likely outcome is that, when future historians look back to May 2015, this $243bn record will be viewed as a portent of an overinflated financial world. This is an era when quantitative easing is making the owners of assets rich — not to mention boosting the wealth of M&A advisers. But it has not convinced companies to believe in a vibrant economic outlook, or not enough to invest. And that is worrying indeed.

但是別抱指望。更可能的結果是，當未來的歷史學家回首2015年5月的時候，這個2430億美元的最高紀錄將會被視爲金融世界過度膨脹的先兆。這是一個量化寬鬆讓資產所有者變得富裕（更別說讓併購諮詢顧問發大財）的時代。但它沒有讓公司相信經濟前景欣欣向榮，也不足以說服它們投資。這確實令人擔憂。