7月份中國企業和消費者信心雙雙下降

Chinese business sentiment fell sharply in July, suggesting that recent dramatic falls in company share prices had severely dented optimism.

7月份，中國企業信心顯著降低，說明近期公司股價大幅下跌嚴重削弱了企業的樂觀情緒。

The MNI China Business Indicator fell 8.8 per cent to 48.8 in July, below the 50 score which marks optimism. The reading matches the April level, which was the lowest since January 2009. In June the index had jumped 7.6 per cent in June to 53.5.

MNI中國企業信心指數(MNI China Business Indicator)在7月下降了8.8，降至48.8，低於50這一分水嶺。50以上代表企業對前景持樂觀態度。7月份的數字跟4月份相仿，4月份的數字爲2009年1月以來的最低值。6月份，該指數曾上升7.6，至53.3。

MNI, a part of Deutsche B爀猀攀 Group, surveys 200 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. It said the overall fall in sentiment outstripped actual recorded declines in production and new orders, suggesting that other factors were at play. The likeliest is the the steep decline in Chinese stock markets, which wipe some $3tn off the market cap of the two exchanges. The weakening also comes in spite of the recent stimulus measures implemented by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, amid deflationary pressures and rising labour and regulation costs.

MNI是德意志交易所集團(Deutsche B爀猀攀 Group)的分支機構，該機構調查了在滬市和深市上市的200家企業。MNI表示，總體信心的下降幅度高於產量和新訂單實際錄得的降幅，表明還有其他因素在發揮作用。最有可能的因素是中國股市的暴跌，它導致滬深兩市總市值蒸發了約3萬億美元。儘管面對通縮壓力以及勞動力和監管成本的上升，中國央行近期推出了一些刺激措施，但中國企業信心還是在變弱。

It's not only Chinese businesses feeling pessimistic after the recent market turmoil. A survey of consumer confidence for July just hit a record low.

近期股市動盪之後，感到悲觀的不僅僅是中國企業。調查顯示，7月份中國消費者信心創下新低。

The ANZ-Roy Morgan China consumer confidence index fell 2.5 per cent this month to 141, the lowest score since the index was created in January 2014.

7月份，澳新銀行-羅伊槧根中國消費者信心指數(ANZ-Roy Morgan China consumer confidence index)下降2.5，至141，爲2014年1月該指數創建以來的最低水平。

While many economists have said the stock market is divorced from the real economy, which should limit the effect of sharp declines on the real economy, the survey would suggest consumers were spooked.

儘管許多經濟學家表示中國股市與實體經濟關係不大——這應該會限制股市大跌對實體經濟的衝擊——但調查表明，消費者受到了驚嚇。

Respondents who said it is a 'good time' to buy major items declined to 37.0 per cent, down 4.7 points from June. Those who said it was a 'bad time' to buy edged up to 8 per cent.

表示目前購買大件商品“正逢其時”的受訪者比例降低至37%，較6月低了4.7個百分點。表示目前“不適合”購買大件商品的受訪者比例升高到了8%。

This could make sense. For even though the percentage of household wealth in the China equity market is low — about 15 per cent of household financial assets are in equities, per HSBC — the full-throttle response to the falling stock market was perceived by many to be panicky. The number of people who lost wealth in the 30 per cent sell-off might be small, in other words, but the damage to Beijing's credibility could have far-reaching effects.

這可能是合乎情理的。原因是，儘管中國家庭只將一小部分財富投入到股市中——匯豐(HSBC)數據顯示，股票佔中國家庭金融資產的比例約爲15%——但許多人認爲，政府全力應對股市下跌表明政府對形勢感到恐慌。換言之，在股市大跌30%中損失財富的人數或許不多，但中國政府聲譽受到的傷害可能有着深遠影響。

ANZ's Li-Gang Liu was optimistic that confidence would pick back up, however, as stocks stabilise and the authorities ease further in the months ahead.

然而，澳新銀行的劉利剛樂觀地認爲，隨着股市企穩、以及當局在未來幾個月裏推出更多寬鬆措施，消費者信心會回升。

"The market correction in the past few weeks should be viewed as a timely warning, allowing share prices to return to a level reflecting their underlying values," he said. "In addition, it offered market participants and regulators an invaluable lesson on risk and rational investing. We believe that the stock market rout has yet to become a systemic risk."

“過去幾周的市場回調應被看成一次及時的警告，可使股價回到反映其內在價值的水平。”他說，“另外，它也爲市場參與者和監管者上了關於風險和理性投資的寶貴一課。我們認爲，此次股市動盪尚未演化爲系統性風險。”