中國從重工業向服務業和消費轉型
Does China need Alibaba as much as Alibaba needs China? From an economic perspective, the answer might be “yes”. The company is the largest player in China’s online retail sales sector, reaching even reMote rural consumers. It is an essential facilitator in the country’s attempt to shift from heavy industry towards services and consumption.
中國對阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的需要，是不是與阿里巴巴對中國的需要一樣多？從經濟角度來說，答案也許是“是的”。該公司是中國網絡銷售行業的最大商家，其影響甚至可以抵達偏遠的農村消費者。在中國從重工業向服務業和消費轉型的努力中，阿里巴巴是十分必要的一大助力。
That does not mean that Alibaba is immune to political risk. Hence its $266m purchase of the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s most-read English language newspaper. On Wednesday, to broaden the reach of the paper, the SCMP dropped its subscriber paywall. Alibaba hopes to reach more global subscribers, help them to understand China better — and thus, presumably, boost its own appeal.
不過這並不意味着阿里巴巴不會面臨政治風險。出於這個原因，該公司斥資2.66億美元收購了香港閱讀量最大的英文報紙《南華早報》(South China Morning Post)。週三，爲擴大該報影響力，《南華早報》取消了付費訂閱牆。阿里巴巴希望將影響力延及該報全球更多讀者，幫助他們更好地理解中國——從而或許也能提升該集團自身吸引力。
That may be only part of the story. In promoting a “balanced and fair” perspective on China, it may hope to score points with Beijing. Even for the private sector, such favour has suddenly become more critical. In December, Guo Guangchang, the entrepreneur and chairman of Chinese insurer Fosun, disappeared for a few days to assist authorities with unspecified investigations. Fosun’s shares dropped a tenth as investors realised that private sector scions are not beyond the reach of Party politics.
這也許只是故事的一部分。通過宣揚“平衡而公正”的對華視角，該集團也許希望能借此在中國政府處獲得加分。即使在民營部門，這樣的好感也突然變得更加重要。去年12月，中國企業家、復星國際(Fosun)董事長郭廣昌曾失聯數天，協助當局開展多項未公開的調查。復星的股價因此下跌了十分之一，原因是投資者認識到，即使是民營部門人士也無法超脫於黨派政治之外。
Alibaba trades at 19 times forecast earnings for 2017, a very reasonable price given expected growth of 26 per cent. Political risk may be priced in (US tech leader Google trades on an 18 times multiple for slower growth). Given Alibaba’s cash pile of over $8bn, a quarter of a billion is affordable if it helps cut into the political discount, or keep it from widening.
阿里巴巴股票相對2017年預期盈利的市盈率爲19倍。考慮到預計26%的增長率，這一價位非常合理。這其中也許已經把政治風險包括在內（美國高科技領袖谷歌(Google)增長率更低，市盈率卻爲18倍）。考慮到阿里巴巴逾80億美元的現金量，如果有助於降低政治因素導致的估值減少，或者能阻止這類折扣因素繼續擴大，2.66億美元還是負擔得起的。
If the SCMP becomes a full-time China-booster it will not win over global readers. There are plenty of state mouthpieces already. Alibaba may not care, whatever it says. Its priority is to participate, and help investors participate, in the growth of China’s new economy. It can only do this if it stays on the right side of politics.
一旦《南華早報》變成一家全天候爲中國打氣的報紙，全球讀者是不會買賬的。如今，政府的喉舌已經夠多了。阿里巴巴也許並不關心該報說什麼。該集團的首要目標是參與及幫助投資者參與中國新經濟的增長。而要做到這一點，它不能在政治上站錯隊。
