關注社會:亞洲能從歐洲危機中學到什麼

A Chinese proverb tells us that it is wise to learn from your own mistakes but wiser to learn from the mistakes of others. Asian leaders should take this advice to heart as they juggle between policies for social welfare and economic dynamism. By keeping a keen eye on Europe's fiscal crises, they can avoid the worst of the Continent's productivity-reducing excess.

中國有個成語叫“借鏡觀形”，是指聰明人應善於從別人的錯誤中吸取教訓，引以爲戒。如今正在爲平衡社會福利與經濟活力兩者關係而大費心思的亞洲領導人們應該把這句話牢記心間。密切關注歐洲財政危機可以幫助亞洲領導人避免重蹈歐洲大陸的覆轍，躲開那些會降低生產力的過頭做法。

At the same time, it would be a mistake for Asia to look to Europe solely for lessons on which policies to avoid. Europe could not have attained the highest quality of life in human history without doing some things right namely, trade and openness.

然而與此同時，在借歐洲之鏡來照亞洲之形的時候，若只是着眼那些失誤的政策，將歐洲作爲反面教材，恐怕也不妥當。歐洲若是一無是處，也不可能實現人類歷史上最高質量的生活水準──這裏所說的“是處”即指貿易與開放。

In the decades since World War II, Europe has become the world's center of trade. In 2008, half of the world's trade in goods and services involved the Continent. Two-thirds of this trade was within Europe, helping small developing countries access big markets.

二戰以降數十年間，歐洲已成爲世界的貿易中心。2008年，全球的商品與服務貿易中，有半數涉及歐洲大陸。其中有三分之二發生在歐洲大陸之內，這幫助那些發展中的小國家得以接觸到大市場。

People in Asia worry about a 'middle-income trap.' Countries seem to easily grow to levels of per-capita income of more than $1, 000, but find it difficult to reach and stay above high-income levels of more than $10, 000. In Europe, powered by vibrant trade and open financial flows, a dozen emerging economies have attained high incomes since 1985, such as Portugal in the 1990s and Poland in the 2000s.

亞洲人擔心自己的國家會陷入“中等收入陷阱”。這些國家似乎輕而易舉就能達到1,000美元以上的人均收入水平，但同時他們發現，若要達到或保持在一萬美元以上的高收入水平線上則很難。在歐洲，活躍的貿易以及開放的金融環境使得大量新興經濟體在1985年後實現了高收入，比如說上世紀90年代的葡萄牙和本世紀最初十年的波蘭。

European enterprise is also a success story. Between 1995 and 2009, Western Europe's entrepreneurs created jobs faster than the U.S. did, and European economies exported more than the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Eastern Europe's productivity increased more rapidly than East Asia's.

歐洲企業的發展經驗也很成功。在1995年到2009年間，西歐的企業家們創造就業機會的速度要快於美國，而歐洲各經濟體所出口的商品金額要超過“金磚四國”(BRIC，巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國)。東歐生產率的增長速度要快於東亞。

The main reason for this success is a freer business climate. European nations figure at the top of most rankings of entrepreneurial freedom and competitiveness. This is the result of reforms such as those in Sweden in the 1990s and Germany a decade later that modernized labor markets and welfare systems, and made it easier to start and shut down companies. (Greece and Italy show what happens when structural reforms are postponed).

如此成功的主要原因在於更爲自由的商業環境。歐洲國家的企業自由度和市場競爭程度在全球排在前列。這要得益於一系列改革措施，比如上世紀90年代在瑞典、以及十年後在德國的改革，這些改革措施使得勞動力市場和社會福利制度得以現代化，並讓創建以及關閉企業的過程更爲便捷。（結構性改革一旦被延遲結果將會如何，希臘和意大利便是現成的例子。）

Asia can learn much from Europe. Trade could be made easier in Asia, and the conditions for doing business could be improved by reducing red tape. In this regard, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea have done better than the best in Europe. Now China, India and Indonesia stand to gain from doing the same.

亞洲從歐洲那裏可學到的東西很多。亞洲的貿易可以更便捷一些，商業環境可以通過減少繁文縟節而有所改善。就這點而言，香港、新加坡和韓國的實踐已經勝過歐洲在這方面做得最好的國家。而中國、印度和印尼則正在努力趕上。

The prosperity created by Europe's economic freedoms has allowed its citizens to lead longer, healthier lives. But the way Europeans have responded to growing wealth and longevity should serve as a cautionary tale for Asia.

歐洲經濟自由所帶來的繁榮，已經幫助歐洲人過上了更長壽、更健康的生活。不過，對於更富足、更長壽的生活，歐洲人所做出的反應則值得亞洲引以爲戒。

Over time, Europeans have come to rely on governments to protect them from the rougher facets of private enterprise and to look after them in old age. According to the World Bank's Golden Growth report on the European economic model, Europe today spends more on social protection than the rest of the world combined amounting to 60% of global public outlays on welfare.

長久以來，歐洲人一直依靠政府來保護他們免受私營企業更嚴酷一面的打擊，年邁之後憑靠政府來照顧他們。根據世界銀行(World Bank)一份名爲《黃金增長》(Golden Growth)、討論歐洲經濟增長模式的報告，歐洲如今在社會保障方面所投入的金額超過世界其他國家的總和──總計佔到全球社會福利公共支出的60%。

The result has been a precipitous decline in work. In the 1950s, Western Europeans worked one month a year more than Americans. Now the situation is reversed: Today Americans work one month a year more than the French and Swedes, and noticeably more than the Greeks and Spaniards. Men in France now retire nine years earlier than in 1965 and live six years longer meaning that the average Frenchmen can expect to draw pensions for 15 more years than they did almost five decades ago.

其結果是工作時長的陡然減少。在上世紀50年代，西歐人每年的工作時間比美國人多一個月。如今情形正好相反：如今美國人每年的工作時間比法國和瑞典人多一個月，也明顯多於希臘人和西班牙人。法國男性目前的退休年齡比1965年時提前九年，而壽命則長出了六年──這意味着，與近50年前相比，法國男性平均可以多拿15年的養老金。

The costs of such largesse are obvious. Both payroll taxes and fiscal deficits have increased. Europe could lose about 50 million workers over the next five decades if it fails to loosen labor laws and reform welfare programs.

政府如此慷慨，其代價也很明顯。工資稅和財政赤字已雙雙增加。歐洲如果不放鬆勞動法規並改革社會福利制度，那麼在未來50年裏，可能會失去大約5,000萬就業人口。

As dynamic as Asia is today, it is not immune to these same predicaments. The most aged country in the world right now is Japan, and China and South Korea are the quickest-aging nations. In 2010, the average South Korean was 37 years old. By 2050, the median age there will be 57.

儘管亞洲經濟如今活力十足，但也無法徹底避免同樣的窘境。目前全球人口老齡化最爲嚴重的國家是日本，而中國和韓國則是人口向老齡化趨勢發展最爲迅速的國家。2010年，韓國人口的平均年齡爲37歲。到2050年，韓國人口的中位數年齡將達到57歲。

While prosperity and longevity arrive together, they cannot be treated the same. With greater wealth, people in Asia may not have to work as many hours as they do now. But living longer means they will have to work more years, not fewer. Just as Northern European countries such as Iceland and Norway have raised the age of retirement, so must every prospering economy. To do otherwise would unjustly burden future generations.

雖然富庶與長壽同時降臨，但這兩者卻不能被等同對待。隨着財富的增加，亞洲人或許不必像今天這樣每天工作這麼多小時。不過，壽命延長卻意味着，他們需要工作的年數將不得不增加，而非減少。冰島和挪威這樣的北歐國家已經提高了退休年齡，每一個經濟富庶的國家早晚都得如此。否則將會讓未來數代的勞動人口不公平地背上沉重的負擔。

Europe's economic malaise grew out of numerous mistakes. Some, to be sure, are tied to the peculiarities of the Continent's currency union. But Europe holds plenty of wider lessons for Asian states. They should see how nations that sacrifice too much economic freedom for social security end up with neither, impairing both private enterprise and public finance.

歐洲的經濟困境是因一連串的錯誤所致。其中一些，不可否認，是與歐洲大陸統一的貨幣制度所帶來的獨特問題有關。不過歐洲也犯下了許多更具普遍意義的錯誤，值得亞洲國家借鑑。人們應該看到，那些過多犧牲經濟自由以換取社會保障的國家最終是如何雞飛蛋打一無所獲的，這樣的做法只會讓私營企業和公共財政雙雙受損。

(Ms. Sri Mulyani is managing director at the World Bank. She was Indonesia's minister of finance from 2005-10.)

（本文作者英卓華(Sri Mulyani Indrawati)是世界銀行常務副行長。2005年到2010年期間她曾擔任印尼財政部長。