股市難賺錢 投資有風險 Black Monday highlights Beijing's hard choices

It is a sign of the severity of China’s stock market correction that the authorities in Beijing no longer seek either to thwart or deny the carnage. There is simply too much red on stock brokers’ screens for them to wish away.

中國當局不再試圖阻止或者否認此次股災，這表明了此輪迴調的嚴重性。券商屏幕上顯示下跌的股票太多了，祈禱它們消失是不可能的。

The latest slide — an 8.5 per cent drop officially dubbed “Black Monday” — takes to almost a fifth the decline in shares since the renminbi devaluation on August 11. Worryingly for a country that has been encouraging the public to buy stocks that were until recently rising rapidly, the market now stands below its level on January 1.

中國股市週一暴跌8.5%，被官方媒體稱爲“黑色星期一”。這次的暴跌使得中國股市自人民幣8月11日貶值以來下跌近20%。中國一直在鼓勵公衆買股票，而直至不久前中國股市還在快速上漲，因此，股市當前點位低於今年1月1日的水平讓人擔憂。

Gone too are the days when the developed world could look on with unconcern at turmoil on China’s exchanges. Their fall is ricocheting around the globe, hitting shares and already-peppered commodity prices. London’s FTSE 100 index shed 4.4 per cent of its value, and many European bourses fell similar amounts. The Dow Jones index slid sharply at the opening, before rallying later.

發達世界對中國股市動盪漠然置之的日子也一去不復返了。中國股市本輪下跌影響到了全球，對股市和已經深跌的大宗商品價格造成衝擊。倫敦富時100 (FTSE 100)指數下跌4.4%，許多歐洲股指也下跌了類似的幅度。道瓊斯指數(Dow Jones)開盤大跌，不過後來有所反彈。

China’s initial reaction to the turmoil was less than impressive. Beijing sought to turn back the markets, pumping $200bn into a support operation, restricting selling and instructing pension funds to wade in and snap up unwanted shares. Having abandoned its attempt to treat the symptom, it must address with a surer hand the underlying malaise.

中國對本輪股市下跌的最初反應並不引人矚目。中國政府之前曾尋求扭轉市場趨勢，投入2000億美元用於救市，限制賣股，並要求養老基金入市接手沒人要的股票。現在中國政府不再尋求治標，它必須用更可靠的方式治本。

China’s economic challenges are immense. The country faces a sharp investment slowdown at a time when it is only part of the way into a long-term plan to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption. Reversing track might be tempting were it possible. Unfortunately for the Chinese leadership, it is not.

中國經濟面臨嚴峻挑戰。中國經濟再平衡、向依賴國內消費轉型的長期計劃只進行到中途，而在此之際投資急劇放緩。如果有可能走回頭路的話，那可能極具誘惑力。但對中國領導人來說，遺憾的是現在不可能回頭。

Exports can no longer be the country’s saviour. Representing some 15 per cent of the global economy, China is too large to trade its way to glory. Nor would it be wise to revert to the investment-led model that has powered the economy since the financial crisis. Such high levels of capital investment are both an inefficient model of development and one inevitably prone to sudden stops.

出口不再是中國的救星。中國大約佔到全球經濟的15%，規模太大而無法通過貿易實現輝煌。中國回到投資驅動的模式也將是不明智的——這種模式自金融危機以來一直爲經濟提供動力。如此高的資本投資水平既是無效的發展模式，也不可避免地容易突然停滯。

Beijing does have space to respond. China is not a debtor on its uppers. It is more in the position of a liquidating creditor. Nonetheless, investors will watch closely for signs that its market distress signifies a wider slump in demand.

中國政府還有應對的空間。中國並非是走投無路的債務人。它更大程度上是一個變現資產的債權人。儘管如此，投資者將密切關注，看是否有跡象表明中國股市下跌意味着更爲廣泛的需求下降。

While Beijing should not panic, the government needs to think hard about how it might boost consumption were that to prove necessary. It should be public about its conclusions, however much this may go against the grain. Markets and the wider world need confidence in the existence of a plan, given the absence of the monetary and fiscal tools common to market economies.

儘管中國政府不應該恐慌，但它需要認真思考如何才能促進消費——如果事實證明這麼做是有必要的話。它應該公開其結論，無論這多麼不合其一貫作風。鑑於中國缺乏市場經濟常見的貨幣和財政工具，股市和更廣泛的世界需要相信存在某個計劃。

China is not alone in facing hard choices. The same can be said for the US Federal Reserve. The market slide comes as the central bank prepares to decide whether to raise interest rates, a move that many had predicted might happen next month. Although the Fed should never target asset prices, the volatility strengthens the hands of those arguing for delay.

並非只有中國面臨艱難選擇。可以說美聯儲(Fed)同樣如此。股市下跌之際，美聯儲正準備決定是否加息——許多人預計美聯儲可能在下月加息。儘管美聯儲絕不應以資產價格爲目標，但市場波動讓一些人更有理由主張美聯儲推遲加息。

Rebalancing China and weaning the world off rock bottom interest rates were always going to be delicate undertakings, and so they are proving. Such a sweeping correction is unnerving, but so long as it does not infect the real economy, there are some benefits in more market volatility.

讓中國經濟實現再平衡以及讓全世界擺脫極低水平的利率，始終是非常棘手的任務，而且事實也證明它們的確如此。像這樣席捲全球的回調令人不安，但只要它沒有影響到實體經濟，更多的市場波動是有一些益處的。

It is a reminder that there are risks in investments and it is not the job of central bankers to protect the value of people’s assets. As the Chinese public is learning, and the developed world may have forgotten in recent years, this is part of normality too.

它提醒我們，投資有風險，央行的職責不是保護人們的資產價值。這也是常態的一部分，中國公衆正在明白這一點，但發達世界最近幾年可能已經忘記了。