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G20應協力提振全球增長 The precarious state of the global economy

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G20應協力提振全球增長 The precarious state of the global economy

In the seven years since it was elevated to the level of supposed guardian of global stability, the G20 grouping of large economies has struggled to make a noticeable impact.

自二十國集團(G20)地位被提升至人們期待的全球穩定守護者以來,已有七年。在這七年裏,由最大經濟體組成的G20卻一直未能發揮顯著影響。

In general, though they have paid lip service to global co-operation over macroeconomic policy, none of its members has been overly bothered about ignoring the views of the rest of the group. Each has generally gone its own way on fiscal, Monetary and exchange rate policies.

總體來說,儘管G20嘴上說要促成全球在宏觀政策方面的合作,但沒有哪個成員國對無視其他成員國的看法太過意不去。各成員國基本上都一直在按照自己的想法實施財政、貨幣和匯率政策。

But at Friday’s meeting of G20 finance ministers in Shanghai, the stakes for failing to co-ordinate policy across the world are higher than for some time. With recent financial market turmoil and great uncertainty about Chinese economic prospects, a sense of unease has persisted since the turn of the year.

不過,在週五於上海召開的G20財長會議上,能不能在政策上實現全球協調一致,將比一段時間以來更加事關重大。考慮到近期金融市場的動盪以及中國經濟前景面臨的巨大不確定性,一種不安全感自開年以來一直揮之不去。

Although the global economy has continued to expand, the need for a general effort to prepare monetary and fiscal stimulus has become more pressing. And while it may be too much to hope that the G20 countries will finally all move together, they should at least satisfy themselves that their policies are consistent with the greater good.

儘管全球經濟一直持續增長,共同努力籌備貨幣和財政刺激舉措的必要性卻已變得更加迫切。雖然或許不應指望G20國家終於能夠全都步調一致,但他們至少應該確保其政策能夠符合所有人更高的利益。

The International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have both warned that growth appears to have slowed late last year and early this, even before the recent turmoil in equity markets worldwide. The OECD says global growth is likely to be around the same in 2016 as in 2015, itself the weakest for five years.

早在最近的全球股市動盪之前,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和經合組織(OECD)就曾警告說,去年底和今年初,全球增長似乎已經放緩。經合組織表示,2016年全球增長可能會和2015年差不多,而2015年本身是這五年裏增長最疲軟的一年。

Moreover, with the advanced economies continuing to generate underlying fiscal surpluses and hence subtract from demand, only China of the big countries is running a public deficit.

此外,發達經濟體仍在繼續產生基本財政盈餘、從而減少需求,大國中只有中國在維持公共財政赤字。

This is not the moment to take global expansion for granted and to focus on fiscal consolidation. Monetary policymakers — with the large and regrettable exception of the US Federal Reserve — have been trying to loosen policy, with both quantitative easing and negative interest rates.

眼下不是把全球增長視爲理所當然、把重心放在財政整固上的時候。各國貨幣政策制定者一直在試圖以量化寬鬆和負利率手段放寬貨幣政策——但遺憾的是,主角美聯儲(Fed)不在其中。

Their efforts would have more impact if they were financing a fiscal expansion rather than acting alone. As many observers have pointed out, economies with anaemic private demand and low long-term interest rates are ideally placed to undertake publicly financed investment in the hope of boosting short-term growth and medium-term productivity.

如果這些貨幣政策有擴張性財政政策配合,而不是在孤身作戰,或許會起到更大作用。正如許多評論人士指出的,私人需求疲軟、長期利率低迷的經濟體,最適合用公共資金進行投資——這種做法有望在短期提振增長、在中期提高生產率。

The risk of monetary expansion without a fiscal counterpart is that it can lead to international tension, even if the motives of the central banks involved are honourable. Quantitative easing in both the eurozone and Japan was primarily aimed at loosening domestic monetary conditions but also, at least initially, pushed down their exchange rates. With the renminbi under downward pressure, another conflict could emerge over alleged competitive devaluations.

只實行貨幣擴張政策而不配合財政擴張政策,可能會導致國際上的緊張局面——即使央行是出於正當理由這樣做。歐元區和日本的量化寬鬆舉措,主要都是爲了放鬆國內的貨幣環境,然而至少在一開始,此舉也壓低了本幣匯率。在人民幣面臨下行壓力之際,可能出現又一場圍繞所謂競爭性貶值的衝突。

Such concerns are only amplified by doubt over how much control the People’s Bank of China, as opposed to other agencies and the Chinese Communist party, truly has over monetary policy.

人們對如下這個問題的疑問更加劇了上述關切:相對於其他同行和中國共產黨,中國央行對貨幣政策到底有多大控制權?

At the very least, even if they cannot all move together, policymakers need to understand each other’s intent. Looser monetary policy — and fiscal stimulus even more so — need not be a zero-sum game if it generates higher growth and more trade rather than simply taking a larger share of global demand through a weaker currency.

退一萬步說,就算各國政策制定者做不到步調一致,他們至少也需要正確理解彼此的意圖。如果更寬鬆的貨幣政策能帶來更高增長和更多貿易,而不只是通過貨幣貶值從全球需求中攫取更大份額,那麼這種政策就未必非得是零和遊戲——財政刺激更是如此。

The G20 is unlikely to emerge from this week’s meetings with a unified action plan. But its members should be aware that the moment when they are forced to move to bolster sagging growth has come noticeably closer over the past few months.

G20不太可能在本週的會議中拿出一份統一行動計劃。不過其成員國應該認識到,過去幾個月裏,它們不得不採取措施支撐疲軟增長的時刻已顯著迫近。

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