油價只會有限反彈 A pact that cannot stop the flow of cheap oil

The conditional agreement to hold oil production steady announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia on Tuesday was a triumph of the art of diplomacy, delivering the maximum rhetorical impact for the minimum genuine commitment. Its careful construction tells you everything you need to know about today’s oil market.

週二，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯宣佈的凍結石油產量的有條件協議，是外交藝術的勝利，以最低限度的真實承諾換取了最大限度的輿論效果。該協議的精心構建，告訴了你關於當今石油市場需要了解的一切。

Co-ordinating oil producers to manipulate prices has never been easy, and has been effective only for limited periods, most spectacularly in the 1970s. Since the emergence of US shale oil in the past seven years, it has become just about impossible.

產油國之間通過協調來操縱油價從來都不容易，而且效果也只能維持有限的時間——這在1970年代表現得最爲明顯。自從美國頁岩油在過去7年裏崛起以來，這已變得根本不可能。

The semi-tough position agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia may not amount to very much. Oil prices fell sharply in the aftermath of the announcement, although they later rebounded. But in the circumstances, it was the best both countries could have done.

沙特和俄羅斯之間達成的半強硬立場，或許不會起到太大作用。消息傳出後，油價大幅下跌，不過後來有所反彈。但在當前情況下，這已是兩國所能採取的最理想措施了。

The deal will not take a single barrel of oil off the market to ease the glut that has driven crude prices down about 70 per cent since the summer of 2014. Even the agreement not to increase output depends on other leading producers signing up. On Wednesday, Iran, which plans to increase its production, did not commit to joining the freeze.

該協議將不會令市場供應減少一桶，不會緩解石油供應過剩的局面。自2014年夏季以來，供應過剩已推動原油價格下跌了約70%。即使是這份不增加產量的協議，也有賴於其他主要產油國的加入。週三，打算增加本國產量的伊朗，並未承諾加入產量凍結陣營。

Even such a weak agreement — the first between a member and a non-member of Opec for 15 years — is significant as a sign of nervousness among the world’s two largest oil producers. But the fact that Saudi Arabia is not already cutting its output, in spite of mounting signs of financial strain, shows that while its strategy might be painful, it is still rational.

即便這樣一份較弱的協議——15年來第一份歐佩克(Opec)成員國和非成員國之間的協議——也具有重大的意義，它表明全球兩大產油國心裏感到緊張。但是，儘管財政壓力加大的跡象日益明顯，沙特也尚未開始減產。這表明，沙特的戰略或許是痛苦的，但該國仍是理智的。

Crude prices at today’s levels are playing havoc with Saudi Arabia’s competitors. Very few large oil projects are expected to go ahead this year, putting a lasting dent in future supplies. The opening up of the Arctic for oil development has been put on hold indefinitely. US shale oil production has remained resilient, but it is falling now, and the industry is about to be hit by a wave of bankruptcies of over-indebted producers. If Saudi Arabia were to cut production now, it might benefit from higher prices, but would also offer relief to its rivals. It is in the kingdom’s interests to continue to stay the course.

當前的原油價格水平給沙特的競爭對手造成了巨大傷害。預計今年將啓動不了幾個大型石油項目，這將對未來的供應產生持久的影響。開放北極地區的石油開採已被無限期地擱置。美國頁岩油產量仍保持強勁，但如今開始下降，該行業即將受到負債過高企業的一波破產浪潮的衝擊。如果沙特現在減產，或許會受益於高油價，但也將爲競爭對手提供喘息之機。維持目前的產量是符合沙特利益的。

Over time, the drop-off in supply resulting from reduced investment worldwide will bring the market back into balance, so long as demand keeps growing. The price will rebound. Oil at about $30 is unsustainably low.

隨着時間的推移，只要需求保持增長，全球範圍內投資降低導致的供應減少，將讓市場回到平衡狀態。油價將發生反彈。每桶30美元左右的低油價是不可持續的。

The fundamental problem facing Saudi Arabia, however, is that the extent of the recovery is likely to be limited. Once crude rises much above $50, there will be substantial volumes of US shale production that will look commercially attractive again, bringing extra supply on to the market. Any attempt to hold prices much above that level would probably be fruitless.

然而，沙特面臨的根本問題在於，油價的反彈程度可能是有限的。一旦原油價格高出每桶50美元很多，大量的美國頁岩油將再度具備生產上的商業吸引力，爲市場帶來更多供應。任何把油價支撐在遠遠高於每桶50美元的努力，很可能都將是徒勞的。

Producers have to adjust to a world in which, barring some great political upheaval, we will not see $100 oil again for some time. Companies need to be leaner and fitter; countries need reform to cope with oil revenues that will be lower for many years to come.

產油國必須適應這個世界，除非發生嚴重政治動盪，否則我們在一段時間內將看不到油價再度回到每桶100美元。生產商需要變得更精幹、更靈活；產油國需要進行改革，以應對未來多年石油收入降低的局面。

The US shale revolution heralds a structural transformation in the productivity of the oil industry, and like any other such advance, it is a net benefit to the world economy. This is sometimes under-appreciated, because the gains are widely spread among all consumers while the pain is concentrated on a smaller number of producers. Overall, however, cheap oil is a stimulus to growth.

美國頁岩革命預示着石油行業生產率將發生結構性轉變，並且像其他任何此類進步一樣，會給世界經濟帶來淨收益。有時，這一點被低估了，因爲收益由所有消費者廣泛分享，而痛苦則集中由較少數量的生產者來承擔。然而，總體上看，低油價對經濟增長是一種刺激。

We are in a world where co-operation between Saudi Arabia and Russia elicits a yawn and not a shudder. Across most of the rest of the globe, that is surely a cause for celebration.

在我們當前所處的世界，沙特和俄羅斯之間的合作消息，讓人感到乏味而不是害怕。在全球多數其他地區，這肯定都是值得慶祝的。