宣佈油價跌勢終結爲時尚早 Too soon to declare the end of the oil downturn

The prospect of a partial freeze on oil production at current levels. Some upbeat numbers from China. A couple of days of rising prices on the market.

石油產量有望部分凍結在當前水平；中國出現一些積極數據；國際市場油價連續幾天上漲。

These signals are enough, it seems, to make some traders excited and to produce headlines announcing the end of the downturn and a turning point in the global comModities cycle. The reality, however, is more complicated.

這些信號似乎足以讓一些交易員興奮，並催生新聞頭條——宣佈此輪跌勢結束，全球大宗商品週期迎來拐點。然而，現實情況更加複雜。

Let’s focus on the oil market.

我們專注看一看石油市場。

The most important point is that things have stopped getting worse. Daft predictions that oil prices would fall to $20 or less have been proved wrong. The Saudis have finally accepted that their strategy of trying to force US tight oil producers and others out of the market has failed; the production freeze signifies a reluctant acceptance in Riyadh that to persist would do more harm to the kingdom and its allies than to anyone else.

最重要的一點是，情勢已經停止惡化。油價將跌至每桶20美元或更低的可笑預測已經被證明是錯誤的。沙特最終承認，他們試圖將美國緻密油生產商及其他生產商擠出油市的策略已經失敗；凍結產量意味着利雅得不得不接受這樣的現實，即一意孤行對沙特及其盟友造成的損失比對任何其他國家造成的損失都大。

A freeze is better than nothing — but it is not sufficient to push prices up, and that is where the traders could be caught out. There are three reasons for taking this view.

凍結產量比什麼都不做要好，但並不足以推動油價上漲，這正是會難住交易員們的地方。有三個原因支持這種觀點。

In the past year there has seen a build-up of oil stocks across the world. Those stocks need to be run down before the market can rebalance. The process depends on the pace of demand growth. In the US, Europe and Japan, it is flat to negative. The International Monetary Fund has just adjusted downward most of its economic forecasts for both the OECD and the developing world for 2016. Chinese demand is certainly high; imports of 8m barrels a day were recorded in February but it is not clear how much of that represented buyers taking advantage of low prices to build reserves. Until there is a sustained surge in demand, the level of stocks will overhang the market. Everything else being equal, it could take two years or more to reach a new balance at recent growth rates.

過去一年，世界各地的石油庫存都在不斷增加。只有當這些庫存被消化掉，市場供需才能重獲平衡。這一進程取決於需求增長的速度。在美國、歐洲以及日本，需求並未增長、甚至出現負增長。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)剛剛下調了對大多數經合組織(OECD)國家及發展中國家2016年的經濟增長預測。中國的石油需求無疑仍處於高位；2月每天進口量爲800萬桶，但並不清楚其中多少屬於買家在利用低油價建立儲備。在需求出現持續激增前，庫存問題將一直對市場形成壓力。其他條件不變的情況下，按照當前的需求增速，可能需要兩年或更長時間才能達到新平衡。

But oil markets are dynamic, and highly sensitive to changing circumstances.

但石油市場是動態的，而且對局勢變化高度敏感。

A slightly higher price as a result of the freeze — say $45 or even $50 a barrel — will bring on more production; not least in the US, where 500,000 barrels a day has been shut in over the last year. The owners of that output, and the people who have lent them money, will be keen to see some revenue flowing.

作爲凍結產量的結果，略微上漲的油價（比如每桶45美元、甚至50美元）將帶來更多產量，尤其是在去年一年減產50萬桶/天的美國。這部分產量的生產商以及他們的債權人將急於看到收入進賬。

On top of that several other countries are itching to produce more — starting with Iran, which even without full removal of sanctions should be able to add 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day to its exports this year. Numerous other countries, from Brazil and Venezuela to Iraq, would like to increase output in order to support their national economies. Don’t forget that a price of $45 a barrel is still 60 per cent below the level of two years ago. Many countries are finding it very hard to make the adjustment in their budgets to accommodate that fall. The odds on the freeze holding are very slim.

除此之外，其他幾個國家（以伊朗爲首）正渴望加大產量——即使制裁措施並未完全取消，伊朗今年的石油出口也應該能增加35萬至40萬桶/天。許多國家——從巴西、委內瑞拉到伊拉克——都希望提高產量，以支持本國經濟。別忘了，每桶45美元的油價仍比兩年前的水平低60%。許多國家都發現，很難對預算做出調整以適應此輪大跌。產量凍結能維持下去的可能性很渺茫。

The production freeze will tell us where the ceiling on oil prices lies. The cost savings achieved around the world have lowered the ceiling. Tight oil producers in the US were expected (not least by the Saudis) to go out of business when the prices fell below $80. Some now say they can break even at $50 and are hopeful of getting that threshold of profitability even lower. This sets a new cost base for the future. So do the savings achieved in mature areas such as the North Sea. The reality is that the potential for supply growth, even at prices of $45 or $50, is still higher than the likely growth in demand.

凍結產量將告訴我們油價的上限在哪裏。世界各地實現的成本節約降低了這一天花板。有人（尤其是沙特）曾預計，當油價跌破80美元時，美國緻密油生產商將會破產。如今，又有人稱，他們能在油價50美元時保本，並有望將這個盈虧平衡點降得更低。這爲未來設立了新的成本基準。北海(North Sea)等成熟油田區域實現的成本節約也起到了這一作用。現實情況是，供給增長的潛力——即便在45或50美元的價位——仍高於需求可能出現的增長。

There is only one conclusion to be drawn from all this.

所有這些只能得出一個結論。

If the oil producers want a substantially higher price — meaning $70 or $80 a barrel — they will have to cut production. The cut will have to be sharp and to last for quite a long time. When the Saudis accept this it will be safe to say that the downturn in the oil market is coming to an end. We are not there yet.

如果石油生產商希望油價出現大幅回升——達到每桶70或80美元——他們將不得不減產。減產幅度必須很大，且持續相當長一段時間。只有當沙特接受這一點時，我們才能斷言，石油市場的跌勢正在接近尾聲。但現在仍不是時候。