中日郵政銀行IPO的不同啓示 China and Japan postal bank IPOs tell tale of two markets

Top executives at Postal Savings bank of China have had an exhausting summer. They were already busy meeting potential investors for a capital raising, ahead of an initial public offering next year, when they had to find Rmb74bn ($11.9bn) for China Securities Finance the de facto government fund used to buy Chinese shares, in an attempt to stabilise the mainland’s plunging stock market.

中國郵政儲蓄銀行(Postal Savings Bank of China)的高管們過了一個精疲力盡的夏天。他們本來就忙着趕在明年首次公開發行(IPO)前會晤潛在的投資者以籌集資本，但還不得不爲事實上的政府基金中國證券金融公司(China Securities Finance Corporation)籌措740億元人民幣（合119億美元）用於購買國內股票，以求穩定大幅下跌的中國股市。

It is easy to be cynical about the Postal Savings Bank’s imminent listing and that of its Japanese counterpart, Japan Post Bank, later this week. Both are government creatures, and their funds are meant to support national priorities. Beijing and Tokyo might view the partial privatisations as proof of their reformist credentials, but investors would do better to see the banks as lenders of last resort for projects that the private sector would balk at underwriting.

對於中國郵儲銀行即將上市，以及日本郵政銀行(Japan Post Bank)本週晚些時候的上市，人們很容易感到狐疑。兩家銀行都是由政府發起設立，它們的資金註定要支持國家重點事項。中日兩國政府可能將這種部分私有化視爲他們銳意改革的證據，但投資者最好還是將這些銀行視爲私人部門不願背書的項目的最後貸款人。

For China Postal Savings, this idea of national service means financing anything that the government deems important, including buying the bonds of other listed and unlisted banks. For Japan Post, serving the national interest is one reason for its IPO: the proceeds will go mostly to fund reconstruction in the Tohoku area, which was devastated by the tsunami as well as the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster of 2011.

對中國郵儲銀行而言，這種爲國家服務的觀念意味着要爲政府認爲重要的所有事項提供資金，包括購買其他上市和未上市銀行的債券。對日本郵政銀行而言，服務於國家利益是其IPO的一個理由：上市所得將主要爲日本東北地區(Tohoku)的重建提供資金，該地區因2011年的海嘯和福島核電站泄漏災難而遭受重創。

However, while the banks have a similar background and rationale, their prospects as listed entities demonstrate how different their home markets are in their financial evolution.

然而，儘管這些銀行有類似的背景和理念，但它們作爲上市實體的前景表明了各自本土市場在金融發展方面是多麼的不同。

Japan Post Bank shares are being mainly sold to retail investors, who have few more attractive alternatives after the government’s policy of quantitative easing depressed interest rates. Japanese government bonds yield virtually nothing and may soon trade on negative yields. In comparison, the 3 per cent dividend yield expected on Japan Post Bank shares looks generous. With the government pricing the shares at a wide discount to the bank’s assets, they look a safe buy at least on day one. Many fund managers also expect the wider Japanese stock market the best performing in the world this year to remain strong, as the Bank of Japan considers ratcheting up its support of financial markets, possibly by purchasing equity exchange traded funds.

日本郵政銀行的股票主要面向散戶投資者發售在日本政府出臺量化寬鬆政策打壓利率之後，散戶沒什麼更吸引人的投資選擇。日本政府債券收益率幾乎爲零，而且很快會出現負收益率。相比之下，日本郵政銀行股票預計提供的3%的股息率看起來相當慷慨。由於日本政府對該行股票的定價與其資產相比有大幅折扣，購買這些股票看起來是安全的，至少在上市首日是安全的。許多基金經理也預計日本股市大盤將保持強勁日本股市是今年全球表現最好的因爲日本央行(BoJ)正考慮加大對金融市場的支持，可能會購買股票交易所交易基金(ETF)。

But that very policy means almost every financial asset is artificially priced including the yen while most of the profits of Japanese companies are simply currency translation gains.

但這種政策意味着幾乎所有金融資產（包括日元）都是人爲定價的，而日本企業的大部分利潤只是貨幣兌換收益。

If Japan Post Bank’s shares are to continue to perform well, it will need to show that it can find new homes for its money. As the largest bank in the country, with 20 per cent of all deposits, it used to put at least half of the cash into Japanese government bonds. Now that the Bank of Japan is taking up more net new issuance of these bonds, Japan Post Bank’s role has become less important.

日本郵政銀行要想讓其股票繼續表現良好，就得表明它能夠爲其資金找到新的投資去處。作爲日本最大的銀行，日本郵政銀行持有國內20%的存款，過去將其至少一半的資金投資於日本政府債券。既然現在日本央行認購更多新發行的政府債券，日本郵政銀行的角色已變得不那麼重要了。

Investors may rightly wonder whether the bank has the skillset to put money abroad, or into riskier assets at home.

投資者可能合情合理地揣測，日本郵政銀行是否有能力投資海外或者投資於國內風險更高的資產。

Low interest rates also mean the bank’s net interest margins will remain under pressure, at a time when the flow of funds into its coffers is set to slow largely as a result of poor demographics and the hollowing out of many of the villages it serves in Japan.

低利率也意味着，隨着資金流入放緩（這在很大程度上是糟糕的人口結構和該行服務的許多村莊空心化的結果），日本郵政銀行的淨息差將依然承受壓力。

At first glance, Postal Savings Bank of China faces similar demographic and management challenges. But China is at a very different stage of development: a young economy trying to become more efficient.

乍看之下，中國郵儲銀行面臨類似的人口結構和管理挑戰。但中國處於截然不同的發展階段：一個仍在努力提高效率的年輕經濟體。

Whether China Postal Savings will be similarly affected by these challenges, or rise to meet them, remains an open question. While most of China’s state owned enterprises are rarely run by managers who prioritise shareholder return, many are far less sleepy than their Japanese counterparts. In addition, Beijing is serious about instilling a sense of competition in its financial markets, which means its banks are no longer as hostile or indifferent to customers as in the past.

至於中國郵儲銀行也將受到這些挑戰的影響，還是將敏銳地應對這些挑戰，目前仍是一個沒有現成答案的問題。儘管大多數中國國有企業很少由注重股東回報的經理人運營，但許多中國企業遠沒有日本同行那麼懶散。此外，中國政府對於向國內金融市場注入競爭理念是認真的，這意味着中國的銀行不再像過去那樣對客戶敵視或者冷淡。

Innovations such as Alipay’s Yu’E Bao money market fund which offers savers a higher rate than bank deposits are already making a difference.

各種創新，如支付寶(Alipay)旗下的餘額寶貨幣市場基金（爲儲戶提供高於銀行存款利率的收益率），也已經在產生影響。