中國開放銀行間債市的意義

China has reminded investors that there’s more to the country than worrisome economic indicators by announcing a significant step in the opening up of its domestic interbank bond market. The move has positive implications for capital flows and the strength of the currency.

中國在開放國內銀行間債市方面推出了一個重大舉措，提醒投資者這個國家並不是只有令人擔憂的經濟指標。此舉將對資本流動和人民幣走勢產生積極影響。

One of the challenges in forming a clear understanding of China’s economy from the perspective of investment risk and reward is the complex interplay taking place between cyclical trends and structural reform.

要從投資風險和回報的角度對中國經濟形成一個清晰的認識，一個難點是週期性趨勢和結構性改革之間錯綜複雜的相互作用。

Slowing GDP growth, capital outflows, unsustainable credit growth, currency devaluations and volatile financial markets add up to an intimidating short-to-medium-term outlook.

國內生產總值(GDP)增長放緩、資本外流、不可持續的信貸增長、人民幣貶值和金融市場波動，這些因素共同組成了中國令人生畏的中短期前景。

Longer term, however, the prospects are brighter: the government’s commitment to reform – including the internationalisation of the renminbi, liberalisation of capital markets and encouragement of private capital (foreign and domestic) into currently state-owned enterprises – bodes well for sustainable future growth.

然而，長期來看中國的前景要光明得多：政府承諾開展多方面改革，包括人民幣國際化、資本市場自由化以及鼓勵（國內外）私人資本進入國有企業，這些對中國經濟未來實現可持續增長是好事。

The coincidence of adverse economic conditions and the need to pursue reforms creates complications for China’s policymakers in pursuing their objectives, and in communicating them effectively to sceptical and skittish markets.

當前不利的經濟形勢加上改革的必要性，使中國政策制定者在推進其目標並向多疑敏感的市場有效傳達這些目標方面遇到困難。

Depending on which way the news pendulum swings, there’s a tendency to blow hot and cold on China’s prospects when what’s needed is a more balanced perspective. With the latest announcement by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the pendulum for the moment has definitely swung back to “hot.”

外界對中國前景是好是壞的看法隨着消息面的風向而搖擺不定，而現在我們需要的是一種更平衡的觀點。中國央行(PBoC)的最新公告讓鐘擺暫時確定無疑地擺向了“看好”。

Come One, Come All

放開限制

The PBoC has expanded the pool of eligible foreign investors in the interbank market. They now include almost all foreign commercial banks, insurance companies, securities firms, asset management companies and long-term investors such as pension funds, charity funds and endowment funds.

中國央行擴大了有資格投資國內銀行間債市的境外投資者範圍，涵蓋了幾乎所有外國商業銀行、保險公司、證券公司、資產管理公司，以及養老基金、慈善基金、捐贈基金等長期機構投資者。

Previously, access was limited to banks that provided RMB clearing and/or settlement, and only a few insurance companies gained entry, subject to eligibility criteria that were never clearly explained.

此前只有提供人民幣清算、結算業務的銀行才能進入中國銀行間債市；獲得准入的保險公司更是隻有寥寥幾家，至於它們依據的資格標準，中方從未對外清楚解釋過。

Securities firms and asset managers were limited to those participating in the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) programmes.

有資格的證券公司和資產管理公司則僅限於參加合格境外機構投資者(QFII)和人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)項目的機構。

In other changes, the quota limit for long-term investors has been removed and the eligibility criteria for individual participants make no stipulation with regard to assets under management or years in operation.

其他變化包括取消長期機構投資者的額度限制，對個人投資者提出的資格標準未對其名下資產規模或者從事證券投資年數作出規定。

The only criteria that institutions now have to satisfy are that they have been established in accordance with relevant local laws; they have sound management structures, internal control systems and standard business practices; their funds are legally sourced; and they are able to identify, understand, manage and bear the risk of owning bonds.

現在機構投資者只需滿足以下標準即可：它們是依照所在國家或地區相關法律成立的；具有健全的治理結構和完善的內控制度，經營行爲規範；資金來源合法合規；具備相應的風險識別和承擔能力，知悉並自行承擔債券投資風險。

One of the reasons behind the timing of the move is likely to have been the domestic bond market’s strong growth – 35 per cent in 2015, with net issuance rising to Rmb12.5tn ($1.9tn). We expect growth to continue this year across the central and local government bond sectors, in negotiable certificates of deposit issued by banks and in corporate debt.

中國央行選擇在此時推出此舉，背後的原因之一可能是國內債券市場的強勁增長——在2015年增長率達到了35%，淨髮行額升至12.5萬億元人民幣(合1.9萬億美元)。我們預計今年各類債券發行將繼續全線增長，包括中央和地方政府債券、銀行的可轉讓存款證和企業債。

Apply a Balanced Perspective

全面權衡

The PBoC’s initiative is a major development, in our view. It moves China’s bond market several steps closer to being included in global market indices – an event that will have a significant impact on investors in benchmarked fixed-income strategies, as they will have to restructure their portfolios to reflect the indices’ realignment. We’ve estimated that this portfolio readjustment could result in inflows of $2.5tn to China.

在我們看來，中國央行的最新舉措是一個重大發展，使中國債市朝着被納入全球債券市場指數的方向邁出了幾步——如果中國債市真的被納入全球指數，將對參考基準指數的固定收益投資者產生重大影響，因爲他們將不得不調整資產組合，以反映指數的重新調整。我們估計這一資產組合調整可能導致2.5萬億美元資金流入中國。

This offers an exciting prospect with huge implications for China’s economy, capital markets and currency; again, however, we need to take a balanced approach to assessing the risks and benefits.

這是一個令人興奮的前景，對中國經濟、資本市場和人民幣將有重大影響；不過，一如以往，我們需要全面公允地評估其中的風險和收益。

While our conviction in China’s positive long-term prospects has gained further strength from the PBC’s move, the short-term outlook for China necessarily remains focused on the interplay between the government’s reform agenda, economic reality and market sentiment.

我們相信中國長期前景正面，中國央行最新舉措進一步支持了我們的觀點。但是中國的短期前景不可避免地仍然囿於政府改革議程、經濟現實和市場情緒的相互作用。

For example, a key policy consideration for the PBoC at the moment is the injection of liquidity into the financial system to offset capital outflows and downward pressure on the currency triggered by investor anxiety. To what extent, if at all, will such action weigh on global bond index providers as they consider China’s inclusion in their benchmarks?

比如，中國央行目前的一個關鍵政策考量是向金融體系注入流動性，以抵消投資者焦慮情緒引發的資本外流和匯率下行壓力。在全球債券指數提供商考慮是否把中國市場納入它們的基準指數之時，中國央行此類舉措會不會影響指數提供商的評估，如果會的話，影響有多大？

Such short-term questions persist; China, however, continues to make progress with its long-term policy objectives. Investors, in our view, need to consider both these points in forming a balanced view on China.

這樣的短期問題依然存在；然而，中國在其長期政策目標方面繼續取得進展。在我們看來，投資者對這兩方面都要考慮到，以得出一個全面公允的觀點。