五張圖看懂中國銀行間債券市場

The Shanghai-Hong Kong bond connect programme, launched on Monday, offers a streamlined channel for international investors to access mainland China’s Rmb69tn ($10tn) interbank bond market, the world’s third-largest behind the US and Japan.

中國內地與香港的“債券通”今日啓動，爲國際投資者提供了一個參與中國內地69萬億元人民幣（合10萬億美元）銀行間債券市場的簡便渠道。中國銀行間債券市場規模僅次於美國和日本，位列世界第三。

Here is a brief overview of the Chinese bond market in charts.

以下是中國債券市場概覽。

Borrowers

發行者

Government-linked entities dominate bond issuance. In addition to central government bonds, investors also treat policy bank bonds the same as sovereign bonds in terms of credit risk. China also launched a municipal bond market in 2014.

政府關聯實體是發行債券的主力。除了國債之外，投資者認爲政策性銀行發行的債券在信用風險方面與主權債券相同。中國還在2014年允許地方政府舉債。

Policy banks — the largest is China Development Bank — are non-commercial, 100 per cent state-owned banks that lend in support of government priorities.

政策性銀行——其中最大的是中國國家開發銀行(CDB)——是百分之百國有的非商業性銀行，爲政府的優先項目提供貸款支持。

The corporate bond market includes debt from commercially oriented state-owned enterprises as well as local-government financing vehicles, which are special-purpose vehicles that provinces and cities use to finance infrastructure.

公司、企業債券市場包括商業化國有企業和地方政府融資平臺的債務，後者是省市地方政府爲給基礎設施籌集資金而成立的特殊目的實體。

Ownership

持有者

The term “interbank market” is a misnomer because the market includes a wide range of financial institutions. Still, commercial banks dominate the market in terms of ownership.

“銀行間市場”這個叫法其實並不恰當，因爲這個市場包括一系列範圍廣泛的金融機構。不過，在債券持有方面，商業銀行占主導地位。

In addition to their on-balance-sheet holdings, they control even more bonds through the off-balance-sheet wealth management products that they sell to customers as a higher-yielding alternative to traditional savings deposits.

除了在表內持有債券外，商業銀行還通過表外理財產品控制了更多的債券。商業銀行將理財產品作爲一種回報高於傳統儲蓄的替代性產品銷售給客戶。

Liquidity

流動性

Overall liquidity in China’s government and corporate bond market is comparable to that of other debt markets in developing Asia. But within these broad categories, ease of buying and selling varies heavily by bond type. Many bonds barely change hands, with banks and other investors holding them to maturity.

中國的國債市場和公司、企業債券市場的整體流動性與亞洲其他發展中國家的債券市場相當。但在這些籠統的類別中，買賣的便利性會隨債券類型不同而大相徑庭。許多債券幾乎從不換手，銀行和其他投資者會一直持有至到期。

Among sovereign bonds, policy bank bonds are often more liquid than treasuries. Among corporate bonds, medium-term notes approved by the People’s Bank of China are more liquid than so-called enterprise bonds overseen by the National Development and Reform Commission, the state planning agency.

在主權債券中，政策性銀行發行的債券通常比國債流動性更強。在公司、企業債券中，由中國央行批准發行的中期票據，比由主管規劃的國家發改委監管的所謂企業債流動性更強。

Maturity

債券期限

The market is tilted towards short maturities, with a quarter currently due to mature in less than one year and 70 per cent in under five years.

市場偏向短期債券，當前市場四分之一的債券將在一年內到期，70%在五年內到期。

Bond market turmoil this year has exacerbated this trend. New issuance has fallen sharply as the central bank has squeezed liquidity and the banking regulator has issued new regulations to discourage leveraged investment in the bond market.

今年債券市場的動盪擴大了這種趨勢。隨着中國央行收緊流動性以及銀行業監管機構發佈新規打擊債券市場的槓桿化投資，債券發行數量急劇下降。

Yield curve and credit spreads

收益率曲線和信貸息差

Even in normal times, China’s yield curve is often flatter than that of other markets. Market turmoil in 2017 has amplified this tendency.

即便在正常時期，中國的收益率曲線也往往比其他市場要平。2017年的市場動盪放大了這種趨勢。

The yield curve is currently inverted as tight liquidity has hit demand for medium tenors of around five years. The short supply of longer tenors, by contrast, means that demand has remained strong.

目前收益率曲線逆轉，因爲流動性緊張影響了五年左右中期債券的需求。相比之下，更長期債券的供應匱乏意味着，需求依然強勁。

China’s market is notorious for failing to price risk effectively. Many investors assume the government will bail out borrowers in danger of default, leading to moral hazard. But defaults have risen in recent years, weakening the assumption of an implicit government guarantee for all debt.

中國市場是出了名的無法有效爲風險定價。許多投資者假設，中國政府會在出現債券違約風險時出手紓困借款人，從而引發道德風險。但最近幾年債券違約事件日益增多，削弱了政府爲所有債務提供隱性擔保的假設。

Foreign investors regard local credit-rating agencies with suspicion because they virtually never give ratings below AA minus. The agencies reply that riskier companies know they cannot access the market and therefore don’t seek ratings at all.

外國投資者對中國國內信用評級機構抱有疑慮，因爲它們給出的評級幾乎從未低於AA-。這些評級機構迴應稱，風險較高的公司知道它們無法進入市場，因此根本不尋求評級。