負利率無助於緩解歐洲經濟現在的困境

It’s an economic-policy nerd’s dream: a major economy like the Eurozone is experimenting with negative interest rates.

讓歐元區這樣的大經濟體進行負利率實驗，這是經濟政策書呆子的夢想。

While it might be fun for some of us to watch policy experiments like this one unfold, the sad truth is that this move, which is aimed at encouraging banks to lend more by raising the costs of keeping money idle, doesn’t at all address the European economy’s underlying problems.

雖然對於我們中的一些人，觀察這個政策實驗逐漸展開很有意思，但令人沮喪的現實是，通過增加資金閒置成本以鼓勵銀行發放更多貸款的做法絲毫沒有解決歐洲經濟體的根本問題。

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, put it bluntly in a note to clients this morning, writing, “We do not believe the interest rate cuts will make a difference to the economy. Credit is not contracting because loan demand is insufficient and needs to be boosted by lowered borrowing costs. Rather, banks have not been lending because they are worried about capital adequacy.”

高頻經濟學（High Frequency Economics）首席經濟學家卡爾o溫伯格在給客戶的報告中犀利地指出：“我們不認爲，降息會讓經濟有所不同。目前不存在信貸緊縮，因爲貸款需求不足，需要通過降低借貸成本刺激貸款需求。而且，銀行由於擔憂資本充足率，也不願意放貸。”

In other words, the large European banks that anchor the EU economy are still hurting from the financial crisis and simply aren’t healthy enough to lend more, no matter where interest rates are. Furthermore, the economies of some countries in the union are in such poor shape that there isn’t demand for loans, and even if there were, there aren’t enough creditworthy borrowers for banks to lend to.

換句話說，那些支撐歐盟經濟的歐洲大銀行仍然承受着金融危機的傷痛，而且無論利率多少，它們的狀況還沒有好到可以擴大借貸規模。而且，歐元區中一些國家的經濟狀況如此糟糕，以至於根本沒有貸款需求。而且，就算有，也沒有信譽度足夠好的借款人能讓銀行發放貸款。

To give an example, Spain’s unemployment is above 25%, while the Spanish economy only returned to very feeble growth late in 2013 after more that two years of contraction. There’s little chance that a small reduction in interest rates will spur lending in an economy that is this deeply depressed. Meanwhile, the Greek economy, which triggered the European debt crisis, remains a prime example of how slow economic and population growth are trapping many European economies in an as-yet-unsolved debt trap. There’s already talk of a third bailout for Greece, which proves that, regardless of the positive spin European officials put on the problem, that economy isn’t growing fast enough to reduce its debt burden. The Greek government budget cuts aimed at reducing the debt burden only makes the growth picture worse.

舉例來說，西班牙失業率超過25%，而西班牙經濟經歷兩年收縮後，2013年底才恢復到非常虛弱的增長。希望小幅降息能刺激一個深度蕭條的經濟體進行放貸，這樣的概率很低。與此同時，引發歐債危機的希臘經濟依然最具代表性：經濟和人口增長緩慢正令很多歐洲經濟體深陷尚未解決的債務陷阱。對希臘進行第三輪救助已在討論中。這表明，無論歐洲政界如何粉飾這個問題，希臘經濟的增長速度仍然不足以降低它的債務負擔。希臘政府旨在降低債務負擔的削減預算只會讓增長前景進一步惡化。

As one former Treasury economist and hedge fund manager put it recently, “With the demographic profile of Europe, its leverage and forces of globalization … there’s no way for [European economies] to grow at the rate necessary for them to get out from under the debt burden they’ve built up.”

正如一位前財政部經濟學家和對衝基金經理最近所講的一樣，“鑑於歐洲的人口結構、槓桿和全球化力量...（歐洲經濟體）無法獲得必要的增長率來擺脫累積的債務負擔。”

So what would actually help turn things around?

那麼，到底什麼才真正有助於扭轉局勢？

Weinberg, for one, believes a QE-type program, in which a central bank purchases assets from banks and other financial institutions, wouldn’t hurt. “The difference between QE implemented by buying assets and these repo-based measures is that the take-up of reserves is optional for banks under ECB programs … asset purchases inject reserves into banks whether they want them or not.”

首先，溫伯格認爲，央行從銀行和其他金融機構購買資產這樣的量化寬鬆政策不會產生傷害。“購買資產這樣的量化寬鬆與那些基於回購的政策區別在於，根據歐洲央行的計劃，（回購政策）增加儲備是可選項……而收購資產無論銀行是否願意都可以向其注入儲備。”

There’s a chance that ECB President Mario Draghi will announce a QE-like program. As we know from the experience in the U.S., they’re not a silver bullet. QE might be effective at lowering interest rates, but it can’t force banks to lend when there aren’t profitable opportunities to do so.

歐洲央行行長馬里奧o德拉吉有可能會宣佈量化寬鬆式的政策。正如我們從美國的經驗可以得知，這並不是什麼高招。量化寬鬆可能對於降低利率很有效，但它不能迫使銀行在沒有盈利機會時進行放貸。

If, however, such a program is used to relieve pressure from government budgets, paving the way for more government spending, that could at least help prop up demand for loans and get credit flowing again. But German officials in particular loathe to finance government spending with central bank purchases, so the likelihood of this happening is still remote.

但如果這樣的政策用於緩解政府預算壓力，爲更多政府支出掃清障礙，它至少可以提升貸款需求，同時讓信貸再次流通。但德國官員特別厭惡藉助通過央行購買來爲政府支出提供融資，因此，這個政策實施的可能性依然很渺茫。

For the time being, the EU economy will continue to spin its wheels.

從當前來看，歐盟經濟仍然將繼續搖擺不定。