郵儲銀行IPO是市場信心試金石

Back when China formed Postal Savings bank in 2007, its already-listed banking beheMoths garnered valuations of at least twice their book value and enthusiasm for the country knew no bounds. Now PSBC is its fifth-largest bank by assets and is about to brave the Hong Kong market — even though its fellows have not traded near book value in more than a year.

在2007年中國郵政儲蓄銀行(PSBC)成立的時候，中國那些業已上市的大銀行的估值至少是它們賬面價值的兩倍，而且投資者對中國市場趨之若鶩。如今，按資產計算是中國第五大銀行的中國郵政儲蓄銀行即將勇敢赴香港上市——即便中資銀行在逾一年時間裏的股價大大低於每股賬面價值。

That joins a list of other challenges facing the world’s biggest public offering since Alibaba blasted past fevered expectations and raised a record $25bn in New York two years ago. Looking for between $8bn and $10bn, PSBC is altogether more modest. It will, however, be a far greater litmus test of investor sentiment towards China.

此外，將成爲自阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市以來全球最大IPO的中國郵政儲蓄銀行上市還面臨其他一系列挑戰。兩年前，阿里巴巴打破狂熱預期，在紐約上市籌得創紀錄的250億美元資金。中國郵政儲蓄銀行預計募集金額爲80億至100億美元之間，總體來說低調得多。然而，它將成爲測試投資者對中國市場的情緒的一塊重要得多的試金石。

Depending on your view, PSBC is either an unwieldy, undercapitalised, cost-inefficient bricks-and-mortar bank stuck in a bygone era, or a vast, under-exploited savings pool with unique knowledge of under-leveraged rural China, where it lends. The truth is that it is all of those things. The question is, will the glass half-full thinkers be prepared to back it when it launches its offering next month?

中國郵政儲蓄銀行是一家臃腫、資本不足、成本效益低、而且囿於過去時代的實體銀行，還是一家對中國槓桿不足的農村地區（其主要貸款對象）有着獨特瞭解、尚未得到充分開發的大型儲蓄池？這取決於你怎麼看。真實情況是，這兩種描述都對。問題在於，當中國郵政儲蓄銀行下月IPO的時候，那些樂觀的思想家準備好支持它了嗎？

Those who have already placed bets include JPMorgan, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Singapore’s Temasek as well as DBS, the city-state’s biggest bank. Ant Financial, Alibaba’s payments arm, and its rival Tencent were also part of the same $7bn pre-IPO investment round last December. This blue-chip group valued PSBC at $41bn — far above the $30bn suggested by bankers earlier in 2015. Mark Machin, now head of CPPIB, described his fund’s $500m investment as a bet on the bank, not the financial sector, because it fits his broader aim to focus on rural China as well as on consumers.

已經下注的機構包括摩根大通(JPMorgan)、加拿大養老金計劃投資委員會(CPPIB)、新加坡的淡馬錫(Temasek)以及該國最大銀行星展銀行(DBS)。阿里巴巴旗下支付公司螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)及其對手騰訊(Tencent)也在去年12月參與了中國郵政儲蓄銀行IPO前的同一輪70億美元融資。這組優質投資者當時將中國郵政儲蓄銀行估值爲410億美元，遠高於2015年初銀行家們給出的300億美元估值。CPPIB現任主管馬克•梅欽(Mark Machin)將其基金的5億美元投資描述爲對中國郵政儲蓄銀行的押注，而非對金融業的押注，因爲該行符合他服務於中國農村地區以及消費者的更宏大目標。

The uniqueness of PSBC lies in its 400m retail customers and 40,000-odd branches, which give it an on-the-ground network at least double the size of its better-known peers. The bank is also 90 per cent funded by deposits — well above the average. Compounding that is the fact that these are almost all retail savings and considered much stickier than corporate cash. The cash is also underused: PSBC has a loan to deposit ratio of 39 per cent versus more than 70 per cent at peers.

中國郵政儲蓄銀行的獨特性在於其4億零售客戶和4萬多家分支機構——這讓該行擁有規模至少兩倍於更知名銀行的實體網絡。並且，該行90%的資金來源於存款，遠高於平均水平。更重要的是，這些存款幾乎全都是散戶儲蓄，而散戶儲蓄的粘性被認爲比企業存款大得多。這些資金也沒有得到充分利用：中國郵政儲蓄銀行的貸存比是39%，而其他銀行的這一比例一般超過70%。

Against that, investors must weigh up the fact that the bank’s profitability has been deteriorating at a faster pace than its rivals’. Last year, it produced a return on equity of 15 per cent. That might sound fabulous to western bank investors but it was down 13 percentage points from its 2012 level, according to Bernstein. It also lagged behind its peers by more than one percentage point. PSBC’s commercial relationship with its 83 per cent owner and parent, China Post Group, from whom it was split in 2007, is complicated too.

在這種背景下，投資者必須斟酌中國郵政儲蓄銀行盈利能力降速超過其競爭對手的事實。去年，該行的股本回報率是15%。對西方的銀行投資者來說，這可能聽起來很高，但伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein)的數據顯示，它比2012年下降了13個百分點，也比其他銀行落後了逾1個百分點。中國郵政儲蓄銀行與持有其83%股份的母公司中國郵政集團(China Post Group)的商業關係也很複雜。2007年，中國郵政儲蓄銀行從中國郵政集團分離出來。

The biggest problem, meanwhile, for those selling the shares is valuation. Chinese state-owned financials cannot sell shares at below book value, and PSBC’s four big state-owned rivals are all trading at between 0.7 and 0.8 times book value. They last traded at par, and then only barely, in June 2015 during the mainland market boom that collapsed a year ago.

與此同時，發行股票最大的問題是估值。中國國有金融機構不能以低於賬面價值的價格發行股票，但中國郵政儲蓄銀行的4大國有競爭對手目前的股價全都在賬面價值的0.7倍至0.8倍之間。這些銀行上次股價勉強等於賬面價值是在2015年6月內地股市大幅上漲期間——內地股市隨後出現暴跌。

Bankers involved say that PSBC’s low loan-to-deposit ratio means it is not dragged down by the bad loan fears that give its peers such a discount. “This is a once-in-a-decade deal,” said one banker involved in the process. “Do you want to miss that for paying up maybe 10 to 15 per cent?”

相關銀行家表示，中國郵政儲蓄銀行較低的貸存比意味着，它不會受到讓其他銀行估值出現如此大折扣的壞賬擔憂的拖累。一位參與中國郵政儲蓄銀行IPO的銀行家表示：“這是十年一遇的IPO。你想錯過這次機遇，然後多花可能10%或15%的錢嗎？”

Hong Kong listings cannot adjust price ranges like New York deals can, so any failure to fill the book means pulling the deal. That is extremely unlikely since Chinese deals tend to come well-stocked with cornerstone investors, who accept a six-month lock-up in return for sizeable allocations. State-backed Chinese deals in particular are known for rounding up so-called friends and family to cut the risk of a deal failing. More than 40 per cent of all equity sold in Hong Kong this year has gone to cornerstones. State-backed CDB Leasing needed a record 85 per cent in June to get its $800m deal across the line.

在香港上市不能像在紐約上市那樣調整價格區間，因此認購不足就意味着上市失敗。但這種情況極不可能發生，因爲中國的上市交易往往有許多基石投資者，這些投資者接受6個月的鎖定期以換取高額配售。衆所周知，政府支持的中國上市交易尤其擅長拉攏所謂的親朋好友來降低上市失敗的風險。今年所有在香港發行的股票中，逾40%出售給了基石投資者。今年6月，政府支持的國銀租賃(CDB Leasing)需要將85%的上市股票配置給基石投資者才能完成籌資8億美元的IPO交易，創下了歷史最高紀錄。

Bankers claim that top-name investors are queueing up to discuss PSBC, although in an initial public offering-starved environment this is hardly surprising. Usually the success of deals rests on their pricing and their early performance, as Alibaba’s did in New York. In Hong Kong, meanwhile, the success of PSBC’s float should be judged on the quality it attracts.

銀行家宣稱，頂級投資者正在熱議中國郵政儲蓄銀行，儘管在一個渴求IPO交易的環境中，這並不令人意外。通常而言，上市交易的成功取決於它們的定價和早期表現，就像阿里巴巴在紐約上市的情形。與此同時，在香港，中國郵政儲蓄銀行上市成功與否應該由其吸引的資金質量判斷。