印度央行的數據顯示已經回收了15萬億的廢鈔
Latest figures suggest that only Rs 54,000 crore of the notes banned on November 8 last year failed to make it back.
最新數據顯示，在去年11月8日宣佈的廢鈔裏，只有5400億盧比沒有回收NEW DELHI: Despite the Reserve Bank of India dismissing reports that suggested 97 per cent of the demonetised currency had returned to the bank's coffers by December 30, its own weekly figures on "currency in circulation" indicate that this number is correct.
新德里報道：儘管印度央行12月30日對關於97%的廢鈔已經被回收進入了央行金庫的報告表示了不屑一顧，但是它自己每週提供的“流通貨幣”數據顯示這個數字是正確的。These figures, in fact, suggest that only Rs 54,000 crore of the notes banned on November 8 last year failed to make it back.
這些數字實際上表明，去年11月8日宣佈的廢鈔裏，只有5400億盧比沒有回收。
More worryingly, this figure has been arrived at on the assumption that no new notes were issued after December 19 -- a near impossibility. This could well open up the intriguing possibility that more banned notes may have returned than were said to be in circulation.
更加令人擔心的是，這個數字建立在假設12月19日之後沒有發行新鈔的基礎上——這基本上是不可能的。這也揭示一個有意思的可能性，也就是廢鈔實際上被回收的數量更多，而不是其所聲稱的正在流通中。December 19 was the last time the RBI gave any information on how much of the demonetised currency was back. Even the tally on new notes circulated are not available.
12月19日是印度央行最後一次發佈廢鈔回收數量信息的日子。已經投入流通的新鈔到底有多少還是未能提供。On Friday (January 13), in its weekly statistical supplement, the RBI said that the currency in circulation till January 6 was Rs 8.98 lakh crore.
在星期五（1月13日），在印度央行的每週統計附錄裏，記錄了截至1月6日，正在流通中的貨幣爲8.98萬億盧比。This comprises new high-denomination currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 2000, smaller new and old currency notes of Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10, plus the banned currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 which have not been returned.
此次發行的大額新鈔包括500盧比和2000盧比，小額的新鈔和舊鈔包括100盧比，50盧比，20盧比和10盧比，已經被廢棄的500盧比和1000盧比不再發行。On January 5, the RBI had sought to question figures of 97 per cent return of banned currency put out by news agency Bloomberg. In a statement RBI said "figures would need to be reconciled with the physical cash balances to eliminate accounting errors/possible double counts etc," and till then "any estimate may not indicate the actual numbers."
印度央行於1月5日對由彭博資訊發佈的97%廢鈔已被回收的數字表示了質疑。印度央行在一份聲明中表示“數字需要和現金餘額相吻合，以消除會計差錯/可能的重複計算等等”，到那時，“任何估算都不會影響真實數字”。Let us now calculate from RBI's figures how much of the banned notes are back.
現在讓我們算一下根據印度央行的數據，到底多少廢鈔被回收了。On November 8, according to reply given in Rajya Sabha on December 2 by the Minister of State for Finance, Arjun Ram Meghwal, there were 17,165 million pieces of Rs 500 notes and 6,858 million pieces of Rs 1,000 notes in circulation. That amounts to a total of Rs 15.44 lakh crore in value.
根據12月2日初級財政部部長Arjun Ram Meghwal向印度議會上院聯邦院呈交的回覆，在11月8日，有171.65億張500盧比舊鈔以及68.58億張1000盧比舊鈔正在流通中。這兩個數字加起來的面值是15.44萬億盧比。Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, had said that in value terms this was 86 per cent of the total currencies in circulation, which would amount to Rs 17.95 lakh crore (Rs 17.97 lakh crore on November 4, according to RBI).
財政部部長Arun Jaitley說過，全部貨幣的86%正在流通中，也就是17.95萬億盧比（11月4日印度央行的數字是17.97萬億盧比）。From November 10 onwards, banned currency notes were deposited in the banks till December 30 and new currency notes started gradually being issued by the RBI in denomination ranging from Rs 10 upwards, including the new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 notes.
自從11月10日以來，直到12月30日，廢鈔都被存入銀行，由印度央行簽署的各種面值新鈔開始發行，面額在10盧比以上，包括新的500盧比和2000盧比。On November 18, according to RBI's statement on reserve money, there were 14.27 lakh crore in circulation, including Rs 2.51 lakh crore (14 per cent) of smaller denomination notes which had not been banned, new currency notes and banned currency notes. We do not know the exact break-up, as RBI or the government did not give it.
在11月18日，根據印度央行關於儲備貨幣的聲明，有14.27萬億盧比處於流通狀態，包括2.51萬億盧比（14%）的沒有被廢除的小額鈔票、新鈔和廢鈔。由於印度央行和政府都沒有提供數據，我們不知道各部分實際上有多少。The first time the RBI spoke of a break-up of new notes was on December 7 during the monetary policy press conference. Deputy Governor R. Gandhi said that a total of Rs 4 lakh crore in new notes had been circulated till December 6, out of which 19.1 billion notes (which amounts to Rs 1.06 lakh crore) were in small denominations of up to Rs 100 and the rest (Rs 2.94 lakh crore) were in high denominations of Rs 500 and Rs 2,000.
印度央行關於新鈔的第一次情況發聲是在12月7日的貨幣政策記者招待會上。副行長hi表示，截至12月6日，總額爲4萬億盧比的新鈔處於流通中，這些總數達191億張的鈔票中，總面值1.06萬億盧比的是100盧比及以下面額的小額鈔票，其餘2.94萬億盧比的是大額鈔票，即500盧比和2000盧比。The December 9 figures (the first after the RBI press conference figures) given in reserve money statement showed that Rs 9.81 lakh crore in value terms were in circulation. This includes Rs 2.51 lakh crore of small denominations already in circulation on November 8, Rs 1.06 lakh crore of new small denomination currencies and Rs 2.94 lakh crore in high denomination notes (Rs 500 and Rs 2,000) -- a total of Rs 6.51 crore.
儲備貨幣報告中提到的12月9日的數據（是印度央行在記者招待會後的第一次數據）顯示，9.81萬億面值的盧比處於流通之中。這包括了2.51萬億在11月8日已經處於流通中的小額鈔票、1.06萬億的新小額鈔票以及2.94萬億的大額鈔票（500盧比和2000盧比）——總數就是6.51萬億。That means that, on December 9, only Rs 3.29 lakh crore (Rs 9.61 minus Rs 6.51 crore) of the banned high denomination notes remained to be returned.
這意味着，在12月9日，只剩3.29萬億（9.61萬億減去6.51萬億）的大額廢鈔還沒有被回收了。In other words, a total of Rs 12.14 lakh crore of old notes out of Rs 15.44 lakh crore had been returned. This is similar to the figure for December 10 -- Rs 12.44 lakh crore -- given by the RBI's Gandhi to the media on December 13.
換句話說，在15.44萬億的廢鈔中，已經有12.14萬億被回收了。這和12月10日的數字——12.44萬億很接近，這個數字是印度央行的Gandhi在12月13日對媒體宣佈的。On December 19, the RBI again gave a figure of new notes circulated. It said 20.4 billion small denominations (up to Rs 100) and 2.2 billion of high denominations (Rs 500 and Rs 2,000) had been circulated. This is equivalent to a total of Rs 5.93 lakh crore.
在12月19日，印度央行又提供了流通中的新貨幣的數據。它說有204億張小額鈔票（100盧比及以下）以及22億張大額鈔票（500盧比和2000盧比）處於流通中。這倆的總數爲5.93萬億盧比。Now let's see how this measures up with the January 6 figures of currency in circulation of Rs 8.98 lakh crore.
現在讓我們看看這是怎麼達到1月6日的8.98萬億的數字的。
Even if we assume that no new notes were circulated after December 19 -- not really a possibility -- the new small and high denominations notes added to the existing small denomination notes (Rs 2.51 lakh crore + Rs 5.93 lakh crore) makes this amount go up to Rs 8.44 lakh crore.
即使我們假設在12月19日以後再也沒有新鈔進入流通——這基本不可能——小額和大額的鈔票總數再加上已經存在的小額鈔票（2.51萬億加上5.93萬億），這個數字就變成了8.44萬億。In other words, only Rs 54,000 crore of banned notes remained to be returned (Rs 8.98 lakh crore minus Rs 8.44 lakh crore). Hence, according to RBI's figures, Rs 14.90 lakh crore or 96.5 per cent of the original amount is back.
換句話說，只有5400億盧比的廢鈔還沒有回收（8.98萬億減去8.44萬億）。那麼，根據印度央行的數據，有14.9萬億，也就是96.5%的廢鈔已經被回收了。But the figures may go haywire if substantial new currency has been added since December 19 -- a distinct possibility.
但是如果12月19日以來，有大量的新鈔被投入流通，那麼這個數據就要出問題了（譯者注：這樣有可能導致實際回收的貨幣要比之前宣佈的廢鈔總量還要多-_-|||）。——但是這是非常有可能的。Is that the reason why RBI is still not announcing the final count?
這是不是印度央行遲遲不公佈最終數據的原因呢？
