超越歐元區 中國銀行體系成爲世界最大

China’s banking system has surpassed that of the eurozone to become the world’s largest by assets, a sign both of the country’s increased influence in world finance and its reliance on debt to drive growth since the global financial crisis.

中國的銀行體系已經超越歐元區，成爲世界上按資產排列最大的銀行體系，這個跡象既表明中國對世界金融的影響力增加，也表明自全球金融危機以來中國對債務驅動增長的依賴。

While China’s gross domestic product surpassed the EU’s economic bloc in 2011 at market exchange rates, its banking system did not take over the top spot until the end of 2016, Financial Times analysis shows.

英國《金融時報》分析顯示，雖然中國的國內生產總值(GDP)在2011年按市場匯率計算已經超越了歐盟的經濟集團，但是它的銀行體系一直到2016年底才超越後者。

The lag reflects Beijing’s increased “financial deepening” — the term for the growth of a country’s financial system relative to gross domestic product. This has been fuelled by an extraordinary increase in bank lending since 2008, when the government unleashed aggressive Monetary and fiscal stimulus to buffer the impact of the global crisis.

這個滯後反映了中國的“金融深化”（描述一國金融體系相對於GDP的發展）有所推進。自2008年以來，隨着中國政府出臺積極的貨幣和財政刺激措施以緩衝全球危機的影響，銀行貸款出現不尋常的大幅增長，推動了這一進程。

“The massive size of China’s banking system is less a cause for celebration than a sign of an economy overly dependent on bank-financed investment, beset by inefficient resource allocation, and subject to enormous credit risks,” said Eswar Prasad, economist at Cornell University and former China head of the International Monetary Fund.

“中國銀行體系規模龐大與其說是一件值得歡呼的事情，不如說是一個跡象，表明經濟過度依賴銀行融資的投資，資源配置效率低下，而且面臨巨大的信用風險，”美國康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經濟學家、曾經擔任國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)中國部負責人的埃斯瓦爾?普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示。

Chinese bank assets hit $33tn at the end of 2016, versus $31tn for the eurozone, $16tn for the US and $7tn for Japan. The value of China’s banking system is more than 3.1 times the size of the country’s annual economic output, compared with 2.8 times for the eurozone and its banks.

中國銀行業的總資產在2016年底達到33萬億美元，而歐元區爲31萬億美元，美國爲16萬億美元，日本爲7萬億美元。中國銀行體系的價值是該國年經濟產出規模的3.1倍，而歐元區銀行的價值是其年度經濟產出的2.8倍。

World leaders and economists lauded China’s stimulus at the time for helping to stabilise global growth at a time when developed countries were deep in recession. Now, however, the stimulus is seen as leading to significant wasteful investment, industrial overcapacity and dangerous debt levels.

當初世界各國領導人和經濟學家讚賞中國的刺激措施，稱其在發達國家深陷衰退之時幫助穩定了全球增長。然而，現在這些刺激措施被視爲導致了顯著的浪費投資、工業產能過剩和危險的債務水平。

Analysts note that unlike in developed markets, Chinese local governments have relied heavily on bank loans to finance infrastructure. Unlisted, state-owned policy banks — notably China Development Bank, with assets of more than $2tn — play a central role, while commercial banks also participate.

分析師們指出，與發達市場不同，中國地方政府大量依賴銀行貸款爲基礎設施項目融資。非上市的國有政策銀行——特別是資產超過2萬億美元的國家開發銀行(CDB)——起着中心作用，同時商業銀行也參與其中。

“There’s a lot of hidden sovereign credit within the corporate loans on bank balance sheets, which can distort the picture when you do a cross-country comparison,” said Hou Wei, China banks analyst at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong. “In most other markets, governments just borrow directly from capital markets. In China, it’s a unique situation.”

“銀行資產負債表上的公司貸款中有大量隱藏的主權信用，這可能會扭曲你的跨國比較，”桑福德?C?伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C Bernstein)駐香港的中國銀行業分析師侯偉（音）表示。“在其他多數市場，政府只是直接從資本市場借款。中國的情況是獨特的。”

But in other respects, the headline figures understate the true scale of Chinese banks. Shadow banking has exploded since 2010. While ostensibly off-balance-sheet, most of this credit remains closely linked to commercial banks. The central bank warned last month that the distinction between on- and off-balance-sheet assets is often hazy due to the prevalence of implicit guarantees. Banks have frequently provided bailouts for off-balance-sheet products, even where no legal obligation exists.

但在其他方面，標題數字低估了中國銀行業的真實規模。自2010年以來，影子銀行業出現了爆炸性增長。儘管表面上看這些信貸是表外的，但它們中的大部分仍與商業銀行密切相關。中國央行上月警告稱，由於隱性擔保的普遍存在，表內和表外資產的區別往往是模糊的。即使不存在法律義務，銀行也經常爲表外產品提供紓困。

In recent weeks, top leaders have signalled that they intend to shift policy focus away from stimulus towards risk control. But concrete action is still lacking. The flow of broad credit hit a new record in January.

最近幾周，高層領導人已發出信號表示，他們打算將政策焦點從刺激轉向風險控制。但具體措施至今沒有出爐。1月的廣義信貸流量創下新紀錄。

In addition to controlling overall debt growth, economists say more developed capital markets can help diversify China’s financial system away from banks. The heavy reliance on banks is partly the result of tight regulation of stock and bond issuance. For the Communist party, however, a more diversified financial system reduces its ability to manage money flows.

除了控制總體債務增長外，經濟學家們表示，更發達的資本市場將有助於中國金融體系多樣化，減輕對銀行的依賴。在一定程度上，對銀行的嚴重依賴是由於股票和債券發行受到嚴格監管的結果。然而，對共產黨來說，一個更加多樣化的金融體系將削弱其管理資金流動的能力。

“The Chinese government’s ambivalent approach to financial markets — seeing them as a useful resource-allocation mechanism but unwilling to let them operate freely, with the ostensible aim of maintaining stability and control — has often added to market volatility and made them less efficient,” said Mr Prasad.

“中國政府對金融市場的矛盾態度（既把它們視爲一種有用的資源分配機制，又出於維持穩定和控制這一表面目標，不願意讓它們自由運轉），往往增加了市場的波動性，降低了市場效率，”康奈爾大學的普拉薩德表示。