中國尋求主宰電動車電池市場

The headquarters of CATL, China’s fastest growing battery maker, lie on the edge of the city of Ningde, a stone’s throw from ponds where farmers raise carp and a street of cheap noodle restaurants and vehicle repair shops frequented by migrant workers. Inside the vast factory, battery parts move silently on automated conveyor belts. Signs on the walls encourage workers not to waste materials or time, or indulge in “unnecessary bending” for their own safety.

中國增長速度最快的電池製造商——寧德時代新能源科技股份有限公司(CATL)的總部坐落於寧德市的邊緣，距這裏不遠處便是魚塘和一條街道，街上遍佈農民工經常光顧的廉價麪館和修車鋪。在這座龐大工廠內部，電池部件在自動傳送帶上默默地移動。牆上的標語鼓勵工人不要浪費材料和時間，爲了他們的安全起見，也不要沉迷於“不必要的彎曲”。

The plant looks like lots of others dotted across the country. But with a valuation of $11.5bn, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, to give it its full name, is anything but mundane. It is set to become China’s Panasonic — a national champion — and a key part of Beijing’s ambitious plan to remake the global battery market and exploit rising demand for electric cars.

這座工廠看上去與遍佈中國各地的衆多工廠沒什麼不同。但估值115億美元的該公司絕非等閒之輩。它將成爲一家國家冠軍企業，相當於中國的松下(Panasonic)；成爲北京方面雄心勃勃計劃的一個關鍵部分，目的是改寫全球電池市場版圖，利用來自電動車的日益增長的需求。

“We want to become a leading enterprise, like the front carriage of a train, driving an entire supply chain,” says Neill Yang, CATL’s marketing director. His office overlooks cranes and cement mixers, which are building a dormitory and offices to house 20,000 workers.

CATL市場營銷總監楊琦(Neill Yang)說：“我們希望成爲一家龍頭企業，就像帶動整個供應鏈的火車頭。”他的辦公室俯瞰着不少起重機和混凝土攪拌車，它們正在建造可容納2萬名員工的宿舍樓和辦公樓。

CATL, which had capacity to produce 7.6 gigawatts of batteries last year according to Goldman Sachs, says that by 2020 it plans to produce more than the gigafactory, the Tesla Motors and Panasonic joint venture that opened in Nevada in January and is expected to be the largest producer in the US. That would potentially make it the biggest battery factory in the world.

根據高盛(Goldman Sachs)的數據，CATL去年的電池產能爲7.6吉瓦時(GWh)。該公司表示，計劃到2020年將產能提升至超過“超級工廠”(gigafactory)——特斯拉汽車(Tesla Motors)與松下的合資公司，今年1月在內華達州投產，預計將成爲美國最大電池生產商。那將使CATL有可能成爲全球最大的電池企業。

Backed by aggressive government policies — ranging from subsidies for electric vehicles to restrictions on foreign rivals — China’s battery companies are beginning to dominate an industry which has been led for three decades by South Korean and Japanese manufacturers such as Panasonic, which makes the battery cells for Tesla cars.

在激進的政府政策——從爲電動車提供補貼到限制外國競爭對手——的支持下，中國電池企業正開始主導行業，而該行業過去30年一直由韓國和日本電池製造商（如爲特斯拉汽車製造電源電芯的松下）引領。

Beijing last week called for companies to double electric vehicle battery capacity by 2020 and encouraged them to invest in factories overseas. As carmakers invest more heavily in electric vehicles the lithium-ion battery will be a key technology for at least the next decade, creating a market Goldman Sachs estimates will be worth $40bn by 2025 and dominated by China.

不久前，中國政府呼籲國內電池企業到2020年將電動車電池產能提升一倍，鼓勵它們到海外投資建廠。隨着汽車製造商加大對電動車的投入，鋰離子電池至少在未來10年將是一項關鍵技術，從而創建一個巨大市場。據高盛估計，到2025年這個市場將價值400億美元，並由中國主導。

“It will not be easy to surpass Japanese and South Korean companies,” says Mr Yang. “But we think over the next 10 years, there may only be 10 lithium battery producers left, with the top three taking 60 per cent of the market.”

“超越日韓企業並非易事，”楊琦說，“但我們認爲，未來10年期間，最終可能只會剩下10家鋰電池生產商，實力最強的3家將佔有60%的市場。”

Since 2012 China has spent billions of renminbi subsiding its electric carmakers, turning Shenzhen-based BYD, which is 25 per cent owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, into the world’s largest electric car and bus maker with a market capitalisation of $18.7bn. As well as boosting supply China is also creating demand: by 2020 it predicts 5m electric vehicles will be on its roads, from 1m today.

自2012年以來，中國支出了數十億元人民幣補貼國內電動車製造商，將總部位於深圳的比亞迪(BYD)打造成了全球最大的電動汽車和客車製造商，市值達187億美元。沃倫?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)擁有比亞迪大約10%股份。在提振供應的同時，中國也在創造需求：到2020年，預計電動車保有量將從現在的100萬輛增長至500萬輛。

China’s approach has echoes of the one it took on solar power a decade ago. It dominated the industry by lowering costs and driving prices down by 70 per cent and could do the same for batteries, says Gordon Orr, former Asia chairman of McKinsey. That would make electric cars more competitive — batteries account for up to half the total vehicle cost — but it could also mean a drastic loss of market share for manufacturers in the rest of Asia, the US and Europe.

中國發展電池產業的戰略讓人聯想起10年前中國發展太陽能發電行業走過的道路。麥肯錫(McKinsey)前亞洲區董事長歐高敦(Gordon Orr)稱，中國通過降低成本和使價格下降70%，主導了太陽能發電行業，如今在電池領域也可能取得這樣的成就。這將使電動車更有競爭力（電池佔電動車總成本多達一半），但這也可能意味着亞洲其他地區、美國和歐洲的電池製造商將失去大量市場份額。

“We know how [solar] panned out. China got the net result it wanted but in the process [there was] billions of dollars of value destruction,” Mr Orr says. “I do see the characteristics of heading down that same path, and whether it’s CATL or others who win at the end is impossible to predict.”

“我們知道（太陽能行業）的結局。中國得到了它想要的最終結果，但這一過程伴隨着鉅額的價值摧毀，”歐高敦說，“我的確看到了電池行業正在走上同一條路徑的特徵，但無法預測是CATL還是其他企業能笑到最後。”

In every device

用於每個電子設備

Lithium-ion batteries revolutionised the consumer electronics market after Sony commercialised them in 1981. From the Walkman to the iPhone they form a central part of the gadgets in everyday life. Now they are set to play an equally big role in transportation, helping to reduce the dependence on oil.

自1981年索尼(Sony)實現鋰離子電池商業化後，這種電池徹底改變了消費電子市場。從隨身聽(Walkman)到iPhone，它們成了日常生活中所有電子設備的中心部件。如今，它們勢必將在交通領域扮演同樣重要的角色，幫助人類減輕對石油的依賴。

Since the 1980s battery production for the electronics industry has been dominated by companies in South Korea and Japan. But China has caught up. In 2013 it outpaced Korea as the world’s largest supplier of lithium batteries for all electronic devices, according to Goldman. A year later that lead increased as China’s electric vehicle market took off. In 2016 507,000 battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold in China, an increase of 50 per cent over the previous 12 months.

自上世紀80年代以來，電子工業的電池生產一直由韓國和日本企業主導，但中國已經趕上來。高盛的數據顯示，2013年，中國超越韓國，成爲全球最大電子設備鋰電池供應國。一年後，隨着中國電動車市場開始起飛，這種領先優勢進一步擴大。2016年，中國售出了50.7萬輛純電動和插電式混合動力車，比上一年增長50%。

While Panasonic is the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries globally, China’s BYD and CATL were just behind, according to figures collated by Bernstein, the research group.

研究機構伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)整理的數據顯示，雖然松下仍是全球最大的電動車電池供應商，但中國的比亞迪和CATL緊隨其後。

“The Japanese invent it, the Koreans look to expand and build it out and the Chinese end up dominating it as that’s where the market ultimately is,” says Duncan Goodwin, head of global resources equities for fund manager Barings. “We are going to see a significant step up in manufacturing capacity driven by China and Chinese demand.”

“日本人發明了它，韓國人尋求擴大生產規模，而中國人最終佔據了主導地位，因爲市場最終是在中國，”基金管理公司霸菱(Barings)環球資源板塊股票主管鄧肯?古德溫(Duncan Goodwin)表示，“我們將看到由中國和中國的需求推動的製造能力顯著提升。”

If Chinese battery companies deliver on their targets they will have capacity to produce 121 GWh of batteries by 2020, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. That compares with a target of 35 GWh for Tesla’s gigafactory when it reaches full capacity next year. A single GWh would power 40,000 electric cars to each travel 100km.

根據彭博新能源財經(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)的數據，如果中國電池企業實現各自的目標，到2020年它們將擁有生產121吉瓦時電池的產能。相比之下，特斯拉的超級工廠明年達到滿負荷生產能力時的目標產能爲35吉瓦時。1吉瓦時可以驅動4萬輛電動車行駛100公里。

“The Chinese are massively building up their capacity to get a stranglehold on this market,” says Simon Moores, head of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in London.

倫敦Benchmark Mineral Intelligence負責人西蒙? 穆爾斯(Simon Moores)表示：“中國企業正在大規模提升它們的產能，以便主宰這一市場。”

Foreign companies at bay

走投無路的外國公司

In 2015 in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing, South Korea’s LG Chem opened a battery factory. The same year Samsung SDI followed suit, opening a plant in Xian in central China and declaring that it would “forge its foothold in the world’s biggest new energy vehicle market”. A year later Beijing released a list of companies allowed to supply batteries in the country. Not a single foreign company was included.

2015年，在華東的南京市，韓國LG化學(LG Chem)開設了一家電池廠。同年，三星SDI(Samsung SDI)也跟着在華中的西安建起一家電池廠，並宣佈該公司將“在世界最大新能源汽車市場打下立足之地”。一年後，中國政府公佈了一份允許在中國供應電池的企業名單。沒有一家外國公司包括在內。

Separately Beijing released draft guidelines at the end of last year that said car battery manufacturers would need to have at least 8 GWh of production capacity in China to qualify for subsidies — a target that only BYD and CATL can meet.

此外，中國政府去年底發佈的行業指引草案稱，電動車電池製造商必須在中國至少擁有8吉瓦時的產能，纔有資格獲得補貼——只有比亞迪和CATL滿足這一標準。

“China seeks to acquire world-class foreign battery technology while keeping overall Chinese ownership and control,” says Michael Dunne, head of Dunne Automotive in Hong Kong. “It has been very careful to cultivate local battery champions while using licensing procedures to hold foreign companies at bay.”

“中國一邊設法獲取世界級外國電池技術，一邊保持總體的所有權和控制權，”位於香港的鄧恩汽車(Dunne Automotive)的邁克?鄧恩(Michael Dunne)說，“中國一直在精心栽培本國的電池冠軍企業，同時利用審批程序擋住外國公司。”

BYD has particularly benefited from government support. Beijing has provided subsidies for electric buses using lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a type used by BYD but not by many foreign manufacturers due to its lower power capacity. As a result BYD sold 11,000 of its e-buses last year, up from virtually zero in 2013, according to Macquarie. “The [Chinese] tailor-made the subsidy programme to make sure neither Samsung or LG Chem would get any part of it,” says one international commodity trader.

比亞迪尤其受益於政府支持。中國曾爲使用鋰-鐵磷酸鹽(LFP)電池的電動客車提供補貼，而只有比亞迪使用這種類型的電池，由於其容量太低，許多外國製造商都不採用。其結果是，根據麥格理(Macquarie)的數據，比亞迪去年銷售了1.1萬輛電動客車，而其2013年的電動客車銷量幾近於零。一位國際大宗商品交易員表示：“（中國）量身定做的補貼計劃就是爲了確保三星或LG化學得不到任何補貼。”

To allow electric cars to go farther on a single charge, a critical factor for batteries is their energy density. For now China lags behind Korean makers in terms of the technology to provide greater energy density, according to Bernstein analysts. The frontrunners in the market are LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation and Panasonic “with Chinese suppliers playing catch-up,” it says.

要讓電動車充一次電行駛更遠，對電池而言，關鍵是能量密度。伯恩斯坦的分析師們表示，就目前而言，在掌握提供更大能量密度的技術方面，中國落後於韓國電池製造商。伯恩斯坦稱，電池市場的領跑者包括LG化學、三星SDI、SK Innovation及松下，“中國供應商在追趕”。

“Because the Chinese have artificial government protection they are able to grow scale that’s bigger than the Koreans,” says Mark Newman, an analyst at Bernstein. “They are still a couple of years behind but they’re narrowing the gap due to their scale.”

“因爲中國企業有人爲的政府保護，它們能夠在規模上超過韓國企業，”伯恩斯坦分析師馬克?紐曼(Mark Newman)說，“它們在技術上仍落後幾年，但它們的規模正讓它們縮小這種差距。”

Increasing the amount of power the battery can store on one charge will be crucial. But that will require continued innovation, says Varun Sivaram, a specialist in energy security at the Council on Foreign Relations.

增加電池一次充電可以存儲的電量將是至關重要的。但美國外交關係協會(Council on Foreign Relations)能源安全專家Varun Sivaram表示，這需要不斷創新。

“In electric vehicles if you keep decreasing the cost but don’t increase the performance you reach a limit — the car’s too expensive because the energy density is not high enough,” Mr Sivaram says. “My belief is that the [Chinese companies] will not ultimately win out. You will need higher energy density batteries and manufacturers who have the next generation technology will win.”

“在電動車這一行，如果不斷降低成本，但不提升性能，就會觸及一個極限——這種車太貴，因爲能量密度不夠高，”Varun Sivaram說，“我認爲，（中國企業）將不會笑到最後。未來需要更高能量密度的電池，擁有下一代技術的製造商纔會勝出。”

Access to raw materials

獲取原料

Even more than the subsidies or barriers to foreign operators, the greatest advantage for Chinese battery manufacturers over rivals such as Tesla is access to raw materials. Chinese companies have been making inroads over the past year into the lithium-ion supply chain, buying up mining assets from cobalt to lithium to help cut costs.

對外國電池製造商而言，比得不到補貼或遭遇種種障礙更令它們擔憂的，是中國電池製造商相比特斯拉等競爭對手的最大優勢：獲取原料。過去一年，中國企業對鋰離子供應鏈連連出手，買下鈷、鋰等礦業資產以降低成本。

This year Ganfeng Lithium, one of the country’s largest producers of the battery chemical, bought a 19.9 per cent stake in an Argentine lithium project. The deal followed on the heels of a purchase last year of a 2.1 per cent stake in Chile’s SQM, the world’s largest lithium producer, by Tianqi Lithium.

今年，中國最大鋰生產商之一——贛鋒鋰業收購了阿根廷一個鋰項目19.9%的股份。去年，天齊鋰業(Tianqi Lithium)收購了智利SQM公司2.1%的股份，後者是全球最大的鋰生產商。

Similarly in cobalt, China Molybdenum, a mining company partially owned by a Chinese local government, paid $2.65bn last year for the Tenke mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The mine contains one of the world’s largest concentrations of cobalt and offers “security of supply of a critical battery material for decades to come,” according to Investec. Cobalt traders say most of Tenke’s supply is likely to go back to China, where prices have doubled since October.

在鈷方面也一樣，去年，中國地方政府參股的洛陽鉬業(China Molybdenum)斥資26.5億美元收購了剛果民主共和國的Tenke銅鈷礦。根據Investec的數據，該礦是世界鈷儲量最大的礦之一，可以保證這種關鍵電池材料未來幾十年的供應安全。鈷交易員稱，Tenke的大部分鈷供應可能被運回中國，中國的鈷價自去年10月以來翻了一倍。

Chinese companies are also likely to disrupt the battery material supply chain and drive down prices, according to analysts at HSBC. “China’s aggressive push to promote the domestic electric vehicle market will accelerate an expansion in the local ecosystem,” they said.

匯豐(HSBC)的分析師們表示，中國企業還可能擾亂電池材料供應鏈，導致價格下跌。“中國促進國內電動車市場發展的積極努力，將加速地方產業生態系統的擴張，”他們說。

In Ningde CATL says it has a staff of 1,000 people working in its research and development department. The company has more than 2,000 battery-related patents and analysts at Goldman Sachs said in January they expect it to “catch up with global peers in product quality”.

在寧德，CATL稱公司研發部門擁有1000名員工。該公司擁有2000餘項電池相關專利，而高盛的分析師們1月表示，預計該公司將“在產品質量上趕上全球同行”。

National Electric Vehicle Sweden, which bought the bankrupt Saab carmaker in 2012, signed a battery supply agreement with CATL earlier this year.

今年早些時候，瑞典國家電動車公司(NEVS)與CATL簽署了一項電池供應協議，前者於2012年收購了破產的汽車製造商薩博(Saab)。

“The Chinese government has a list of approved battery makers and if you don’t choose one of those you will not be allowed to apply for subsidies on the Chinese market,” Anders Bjornberg, director of R&D at NEVS, says. “CATL are also competitive with the Japanese and Koreans, it’s not that we have taken the second-best choice. It’s the best choice in China.”

“中國政府有一份獲批的電池製造商名單，如果不選擇其中某家，就不會被允許在中國市場申請補貼，”NEVS的研發總監安德斯?比約恩貝里(Anders Bjornberg)表示，“CATL同樣能夠與日韓企業競爭，這並不意味着我們接受了次優選擇。這是在中國的最佳選擇。”

Mr Yang says the company’s first aim is to serve domestic Chinese customers rather than export to the global market.

楊琦表示，CATL的首要目標是服務國內客戶，而非出口全球市場。

Yet CATL cannot hide its global ambitions. Mr Yang concedes the company hopes to work with Tesla, has been in contact with General Motors and its current clients include Volkswagen and BMW. In January it bought a 22 per cent stake in Finnish auto supplier Valmet Automotive. It also has an eye on building a factory in Europe. That’s “not a distant prospect,” Mr Yang says.

但CATL掩飾不了其全球雄心。楊琦承認，該公司希望與特斯拉合作，也一直在與通用汽車(General Motors)接洽，而現有客戶包括大衆(Volkswagen)和寶馬(BMW)。今年1月，CATL收購了芬蘭汽車供應商瓦爾麥特汽車(Valmet Automotive) 22%的股份。CATL還打算在歐洲建一家工廠。這“不是一個遙遠的前景，”楊琦說。

The rivals: Japan prepares for a fight it cannot afford to lose

競爭對手：日本準備爲一場輸不起的競爭而戰

When Japan looks at the global battery market in 2017 — the shifting technologies, the emerging players and the intensifying competition — it recalls the past two decades of industrial history and winces.

舉目2017年的全球電池市場——技術變化、新對手崛起以及日趨激烈的競爭——會讓日本回憶起過去20年的工業史和各種尷尬瞬間。

It has watched as its dominant position in semiconductors, TVs, white goods, mobile phones and even high speed rail has been first dented then battered by competition from South Korea, China and elsewhere. But batteries, runs the mantra from everyone in the supply chain, is a battle Japan has told itself it “cannot lose”.

日本眼睜睜地看着本國在半導體、電視機、白色家電、手機甚至高鐵領域的主導地位被韓國、中國及其他地區的競爭對手先是一點點蠶食，然後是重創。但是供應鏈上每個人的箴言是，電池是日本告訴自己“輸不起”的一場角力。

As well as Beijing’s high-profile backing of its domestic battery industry, much of Japan’s urgency, say lithium experts, is driven by the assumption that the fundamental dynamics of the lithium market are poised to change: batteries are about to overtake all other industrial users of the metal as the prime source of demand. At the corporate level, say lawyers involved in recent battery supply chain deals, Japan’s determination has prompted an acceleration of asset sales, purchases and joint-venture formations.

除了北京方面高調支持國內電池行業外，鋰專家們表示，日本的緊迫感有很大一部分源於假設鋰市場的格局即將發生根本變化：電池就要超過這種金屬的其他所有工業用途，成爲主要需求來源。在企業層面，參與近期電池供應鏈交易的律師們表示，日本的決心加速了資產出售、併購以及合資公司的成立。

High-performance materials companies like Ube Industries, Sumitomo and Central Glass are investing heavily in new battery production capacity around Asia. Others like Murata Manufacturing are pushing ahead with acquisitions. In July, the company is expected to complete the purchase of Sony’s battery business, before working on a supply deal with Samsung Electronics.

宇部興產(Ube Industries)、住友(Sumitomo)及Central Glass等高性能材料企業，正在亞洲各地大舉投資於新的電池生產能力。其他企業，如村田製作所(Murata Manufacturing)，正在推進併購。今年7月，村田製作所預計將完成對索尼電池業務的收購，然後將致力於與三星電子(Samsung Electronics)達成一項供應協議。

Japan’s sense of panic has been intensified by the Trump administration’s scuppering of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. That pact, say producers, was to have been beneficial to Japan’s battery industry, which had already begun to invest in capacity in Vietnam on the assumption it could then export to the US and Canada.

特朗普政府撕毀《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)之舉加劇了日本的恐慌感覺。生產商稱，該協議本來有望令日本電池工業受益，日本原本已經開始在越南投資於電池產能，以爲可以讓產品行銷美國和加拿大。