中國電動汽車發展趨於成熟

Buoyed by generous subsidies and meteoric sales, more than 200 companies have announced their intention to make and sell new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China.

受益於慷慨補貼和銷售火爆，逾200家公司宣佈計劃在中國生產並銷售新能源汽車。

The Chinese government is pushing NEVs, cars that are either partially or fully electric, as part of a new industrial policy known as Made in China 2025, by which time it wants to have created national champions in 10 high-tech industries. China is already the world’s biggest car market and has set the ambitious goal of reaching 7m annual NEV sales by 2025. Last year, it sold 507,000.

中國政府正把新能源汽車作爲一項新的工業政策“中國製造2025”的一部分，到那時，中國希望在10個高科技行業締造國家冠軍企業。新能源汽車要麼是部分電動汽車，要麼是純電動汽車。中國目前已是全球最大汽車市場，並已制定了一個雄心勃勃的目標：到2025年，新能源汽車年度銷量將達到700萬輛。去年中國的新能源汽車銷量爲50.7萬輛。

But this gold rush may be over before its starts for some. China is weeding out smaller NEV companies, some of which have sucked up government subsidies without producing commercially viable vehicles. The government hopes this will leave a handful of leaders that could one day compete with the likes of Tesla, the US company which in April surpassed Ford in stock market capitalisation.

但對於一些企業而言，這股淘金潮尚未開始就可能結束了。中國正在淘汰規模較小的新能源汽車公司，其中一些消耗了政府補貼，卻沒有生產可投入商用的汽車。政府希望此舉將讓少數領軍企業有朝一日能夠與特斯拉(Tesla)之流競爭，後者是一家美國公司，今年4月其股市市值超過了福特(Ford)。

China slashed subsidies on car sales by 20 per cent in January and will phase them out completely by 2020. In April, finance minister Xiao Jie signalled his irritation with NEV subsidy cheaters, companies that took subsidies but did not make cars. He said the government would claw back about Rmb2.3bn ($337m) in such concessions.

今年1月，中國將新能源汽車銷售補貼下調20%，到2020年將徹底取消這項補貼。今年4月，中國財政部部長肖捷表達了他對騙取新能源補貼的公司（領取補貼但沒有生產汽車的公司）的憤怒。他表示，政府已追回騙補資金和罰款約23億元人民幣（合3.37億美元）。

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry is launching a lengthy certification process which requires that NEV production facilities have “mastered” the technology they are manufacturing. Dominik Declercq, head representative of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association in Beijing, says a probable aim of the measure “is to weed out some of the approximately 200 NEV makers who have benefited from state subsidies without, in some cases, having any real R&D capability”.

與此同時，工信部正啓動漫長的認證程序，規定新能源汽車生產企業必須具備製造新能源汽車的技術。歐洲汽車工業協會(European Automobile Manufacturers Association)駐中國首席代表多米尼克?德克萊爾(Dominik Declercq)表示，此舉很可能帶有這樣一個目的，即“淘汰近200家新能源汽車生產商中的一些企業，這些企業受益於政府補貼，但其中一些不具備真正的研發能力”。

Another government body, the National Development and Reform Commission, has issued 15 NEV manufacturing permits, and reports suggest authorities will not continue to issue them.

另一個政府機構國家發改委(NDRC)發佈了15個新能源汽車製造許可，有報道稱，當局不會繼續發放這類許可。

The NDRC declined to comment.

發改委拒絕置評。

“The market will always lead to survival of the fittest, and only well-performing companies will survive, generally with some consolidations — not with a market of hundreds of companies making identical, low-end vehicles,” says Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

中國汽車工業協會(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)祕書長助理徐海東表示：“市場將永遠是適者生存，只有業績優秀的公司纔會生存，一般是經過一些整合，而不是數百家公司生產相同的低端汽車。”

Many small companies, such as NIO and LeSee, have aspired to emulate the success of Tesla. But Chinese authorities have traditionally been attracted to a model of innovation that focused on national champions — the behemoths of the car industry such as electric battery maker BYD, as well as carmakers GAC, Geely and Changan.

蔚來(NIO)和LeSee等很多小公司一直希望仿效特斯拉的成功。但中國政府傳統上感興趣的是注重國家冠軍企業的創新模式，這些企業是汽車行業的巨擘，例如電動汽車電池製造商比亞迪(BYD)和汽車製造商廣汽(GAC)、吉利(Geely)和長安(Changan)。

At the same time, it is creating obstacles for smaller companies. China is all but forcing large local and foreign automakers to begin producing NEVs. New rules will require 8 per cent of car sales in China to be electric as early as next year and 12 per cent by 2020 — targets automakers have deemed overly ambitious. Automakers that miss their quotas will have to purchase credits from NEV makers — one industry insider who asked not to be named said this was simply a way for the government to spend less on subsidising NEVs by forcing the auto industry to do so.

與此同時，這正給規模較小的企業製造障礙。中國幾乎是在迫使大型國內外汽車製造商開始生產新能源汽車。根據新的規則，明年電動汽車就必須佔到各企業在華汽車銷量的8%，到2020年將達到12%，汽車製造商認爲，這些目標過於雄心勃勃。未能達到這一比例的汽車製造商必須從新能源汽車製造商那裏購買積分；一位要求匿名的業內人士表示，政府迫使汽車行業這麼做，只是爲了減少自己對新能源汽車的補貼支出。

Incentives to produce NEVs include generous subsidies that once amounted to nearly 60 per cent of an electric vehicle’s price. Sales quadrupled in 2015 as a result. The craze over electric vehicles has even sparked heavy trading in China in commodities such as lithium and cobalt, which are key battery components.

生產新能源汽車的激勵措施包括慷慨的補貼，這類補貼曾經佔一輛電動汽車價格的近60%，其結果是2015年電動汽車銷量增加3倍。圍繞電動汽車的瘋狂熱潮甚至在中國引發了鋰和鈷（它們是重要的電池原料）等大宗商品的活躍交易。

But for many smaller players, NEVs have proven to be a siren song, their allure masking their risks.

但是對許多較小企業來說，新能源車被證明是“海妖之歌”，它們的誘惑掩蓋了風險。

Embattled tech conglomerate LeEco may be the most striking warning of a company partly led astray by NEVs. Jia Yueting, the company’s founder and chief executive, wrote a public letter last November admitting that rapid expansion, including into NEVs, was burning cash. LeEco has since struggled and construction on a plant run with Faraday Future, a US partner, has halted.

如果說有哪家公司在一定程度上被新能源車引入歧途，那最引人注目的例子可能是如今陷入困境的科技巨頭樂視(LeEco)。該公司創始人和首席執行官賈躍亭在去年發表的一封公開信中承認，快速擴張（包括進軍新能源車）的努力正在“燒錢”。樂視自那以來陷入困境，擱置了在美國建廠、並由其美國合作伙伴法拉第未來(Faraday Future)運營的項目。

Weeding out the smaller players would push the survivors towards partnering with larger companies — exactly what Beijing wants.

淘汰較小規模的企業將推動倖存者與較大公司合作，這正是北京方面希望的。

Flashy electric vehicle start-up NIO told the Financial Times that, although it has not obtained a government permit to build NEVs, it does not need one because of its partnership with JAC, a local automaker that does.

高調的電動車初創企業蔚來汽車向英國《金融時報》表示，儘管還沒有獲得製造新能源車的政府許可，但因爲與國內已獲許可的汽車製造商江淮汽車(JAC)合作，它並不需要這種許可。

“A lot of companies, big existing ones with their own production permits, would easily open up their shop floors to manufacturing for other brands as a contract manufacturer,” says Thomas Glendinning, a senior analyst at BMI Research.

BMI研究(BMI Research)高級分析師托馬斯?格倫迪寧(Thomas Glendinning)表示：“現在擁有生產許可的許多大公司，將可輕易開放車間，作爲代工製造商爲其他品牌製造汽車。”

Additional reporting by Sherry Fei Ju

俱菲(Sherry Fei Ju)補充報道

The downside of sharing — a car chairman’s view

一位汽車企業董事長的觀點：共享的缺點

China’s car industry is casting a wary eye on the rise of the sharing economy, taking a gloomy view of its impact on car sales.

中國汽車業警惕地注視着共享經濟的興起，它們對共享經濟對汽車銷售的影響持悲觀態度。

Feng Xingya, chairman of GAC Motor Group, one of China’s largest domestic carmakers, has laid out a pessimistic vision. “Current predictions are one-in-five in car sharing for shared vehicles — that means in the future if there are 5m shared cars, they will replace 25m private cars,” he said at an automotive conference earlier this month in Chongqing.

中國最大汽車製造商之一廣汽集團(GAC Motor Group)的總經理馮興亞作出了悲觀的預測。他在本月早些時候在重慶召開的一個汽車行業會議上表示：“當前的預測是，每輛共享汽車有5個駕車者共享，這意味着未來如果有500萬輛共享汽車，那它們將取代2500萬輛私家車。”

Mr Feng added that, assuming no shared cars in market, China’s car sales should hit 40m in five years but if 25m were replaced by shared cars — most of which will be electric — “China car sales would be immediately reduced to 15m”.

馮興亞補充稱，假設市場上沒有共享汽車，中國的汽車銷量將在5年後達到4000萬輛，但如果2500萬輛汽車被共享汽車取代——大部分將是電動汽車——“中國汽車銷量將立即下降至1500萬輛”。

GAC declined to clarify the time period to which Mr Feng was referring and said he was speaking hypothetically.

廣汽拒絕澄清馮興亞提及的時間範圍，並表示他這麼說只是假設。

Most analysts consider those numbers exaggerated, but note they highlight the apocalyptic mindset in the car industry, which faces disruption by a number of new technologies such as autonomous driving and electrification, as well as car sharing.

大多數分析師認爲這些數據有所誇大，但是他們指出，這突顯出汽車行業的末日心態，除了汽車共享以外，該行業面臨着衆多新技術的顛覆，如自動駕駛和電氣化。

Major cities are encouraging car sharing to mitigate pollution and traffic jams. Beijing and Shanghai have rolled out measures to encourage the industry — including subsidising shared rentals, building charging stations for shared new energy vehicles and encouraging government use of shared new energy cars.

各大城市鼓勵汽車共享以緩解污染和交通擁堵問題。北京和上海出臺舉措鼓勵共享行業，包括爲共享租賃提供補貼，爲共享新能源汽車建設充電站，以及鼓勵政府部門使用共享新能源汽車。

China has shown itself uniquely attracted to the car sharing economy. In five years since it was launched, Didi Chuxing, China’s answer to Uber, has surpassed its US rival in most metrics and boasts 17.5m drivers across China.

中國已經表明其對汽車共享經濟有獨特的吸引力。在推出5年後，滴滴出行(Didi Chuxing)在多數衡量標準上超過其美國競爭對手優步(Uber)，號稱在中國有1750萬名司機。

But the market is still tiny. According to China's Ministry of Transportation, there are just 40,000 shared rental cars nationwide and 95 per cent are new energy vehicles.

但是這一市場仍然非常小。中國交通部的數據顯示，全國只有4萬輛共享租賃汽車，其中95%是新能源汽車。

Other predictions for the growth of car sharing are more conservative than Mr Feng’s. A study by consultancy Roland Berger into the temporary car rental market in China estimated that given 45 per cent growth, the number of shared rentals would reach 600,000 by 2025. It did not estimate how many private cars this would replace.

與馮興亞相比，其他人對共享汽車增長的預測更加保守。諮詢公司羅蘭貝格(Roland Berger)對中國臨時汽車租賃市場進行了調查，結果顯示，按45%的增長估計，到2025年共享租賃汽車數量將達到60萬輛。它沒有估計這將會取代多少私家車。

Shu Chang, a Shanghai-based consultant at Roland Berger, sees car sharing as a longer-term threat to car sales. In 20-30 years, “with the maturity of autonomous driving, people’s need for car ownership will be much smaller and cars will become part of daily infrastructure just like elevators”, he says. “This is when the auto sales market will be significantly harmed.”

羅蘭貝格駐上海諮詢顧問舒暢認爲，從更長期來說，共享汽車會威脅到汽車的銷售。他說，20至30年後，“隨着自動駕駛技術的成熟，人們擁有汽車的必要性將會大幅下降，汽車將成爲日常基礎設施的一部分，就像電梯一樣，屆時汽車銷售將會遭受顯著衝擊。”

Sherry Fei Ju and Charles Clover in Chongqing

俱菲和爾斯?克洛弗(Charles Clover)重慶報道