澳門賭場旺不旺看中國

Gamblers have no way of telling the end of a winning streak from a random loss. Investors in casino stocks face the same problem. Gaming revenues in Macau grew during December, but not as much as expected. Sharp-eyed shareholders in these casinos should focus on liquidity conditions in China rather than revenues in the former Portuguese colony.

偶然輸一次，賭徒們沒法判斷他們的好手氣是否要結束了。博彩股的投資者也有類似的問題。12月，澳門的博彩業收入有所增長，但並未達到預期。各家賭場有眼光的股東們應該關注的是中國的流動性狀況，而不是這塊葡萄牙前殖民地的收入。

Shares prices of Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment roughly doubled last year and near their 2013 peaks. Competitor Sands China, which attracts fewer high-rollers, gained a mere quarter. Investors expect More of the same in 2018. New infrastructure in Macau, such as the Zhuhai bridge, should deliver more mainlanders to the tables more quickly. Casinos have already added rooms to accommodate them, so capital spending should slow down in coming years.

永利澳門(Wynn Macau)與銀河娛樂集團(Galaxy Entertainment)的股價去年差不多翻了一番，目前接近2013年的峯值。金沙中國(Sands China)吸引的豪賭客要少一些，股價漲幅僅爲四分之一。投資者們預計2018年的情況也會差不多。澳門新建的基礎設施，如港珠澳大橋，應該能以更快的速度將更多的內地人送到賭桌上。各家賭場已爲此增設了客房，因此未來幾年的資本支出應當會放緩。

Revenues have grown because the middle classes as well as the super-rich are flocking to gambling tables. Morgan Stanley analysts expect this trend to continue as consumers become wealthier. Diversifying the customer base should support earnings growth. Wynn Macau looks particularly well placed, given that competitor facilities remain under construction while its own are complete. That should help it take market share.

博彩收入增長，是因爲中產階級和超級富豪蜂擁坐到賭桌前。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師們預測，隨着消費者愈加富有，這種趨勢將繼續下去。客戶羣多樣化應該能夠爲盈利增長提供支撐。考慮到競爭對手還在興建設施，而自己的設施完善，永利澳門似乎處於有利地位。這應該有助於永利澳門搶佔市場份額。

Provided, of course, that Chinese keep spending — and are permitted to do so. China’s regulators have limited citizens’ ability to withdraw cash; annual foreign cash withdrawal limits were tightened to Rmb100,000 per person last weekend. Though similar measures have had little effect on spending in the past, monetary tightening by China probably would. Last month its central bank raised interest rates, the first time since March.

當然，前提是中國人會繼續消費---並且政府允許他們這樣做。中國的監管機構早對公民提取現金的能力加以限制；上週末，每人每年境外提現金額被收緊至10萬元人民幣。雖然以往類似舉措對支出的影響並不大，但中國收緊貨幣政策大概會起到作用。上個月，中國央行提高了市場利率，這是自3月以來的首個加息動作。

Casino stocks in Hong Kong recovered on Wednesday, after selling off following the disappointing industry data. Investors are right to ignore one month’s revenue underperformance and focus on broader trends — where they will also find risks to the bullish thesis.

香港博彩類股票因行業數據令人失望而下跌後，週三展開反彈。投資者對單月收入欠佳不以爲意而着眼於大勢是正確之舉——他們也會從整體樂觀的趨勢中發現風險。