世界盃是否搶走了澳門賭場生意

The FIFA World Cup has been blamed for a multitude of sins, but banks say draining Macau's casino takings is not one of them.

世界盃被指有無數宗罪，但銀行從業人士表示，搶走澳門賭場的收入並不在其列。

Prior to the start of the tournament last Month, analysts at investment banks -- perhaps with their minds turning towards the subject of football instead of their spreadsheets -- had speculated that the World Cup would sap numbers of gamblers in Macau.

上個月世界盃開賽之前，投行分析師曾猜測世界盃會造成澳門賭客人數減少。當時分析師們可能滿腦子想的都是足球這個話題，而不是財務表格。

Sure enough, gross gaming revenues fell for the first time in five years during June. Takings declined 3.7% to 27.2bn Macau patacas compared with a year earlier, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau released on Monday.

確實，6月份博彩總收入出現五年來的首次下滑。據澳門博彩監察協調局(Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau)週一發佈的數據顯示，收入下滑至272億澳元，較上年同期下降3.7%。

Does the dip in gambling revenues during the month of the tournament prove that football is the determining factor? Far from it, says Barclays. Instead, it's the fall in numbers of high-rollers -- a trend which preceded the start of the World Cup - that's really to blame.

世界盃當月博彩收入下滑，這是否證明足球是其中的決定性因素？據巴克萊(Barclays)稱，遠非如此。真正的原因是豪賭客人數減少，這一趨勢在世界盃開賽之前就已經出現。

The high-spending VIP segment is tightly fought over by Macau's casinos, which have tie-ups with junket-operators to entice greater numbers of wealthy gamblers and may even offer lines of credit.

澳門的賭場激烈爭奪一擲千金的VIP業務。澳門的賭場與中介人合作，吸引更多的有錢賭客，甚至可能向其提供信貸額度。

The bank believes the main factor driving the revenue slump comes from the VIP segment, which it estimates has seen 'double-digit percentage declines' as part of a trend that has been 'visible since April'.

巴克萊認爲，造成澳門博彩收入下滑的主要原因在於VIP業務。巴克萊估計VIP業務收入的百分比降幅爲兩位數，這是4月份以來呈現出來的趨勢的一部分。

'Mass revenues might have seen a marginal slowdown due to the impact from the World Cup, but we expect little impact and the impact to only be transient,' Barclays says.

巴克萊表示，大衆業務收入可能因世界盃的影響而出現微幅下滑，但預計幾乎不會帶來什麼衝擊，即便有衝擊，也是暫時的。

Standard Chartered agrees, arguing that the number of gamblers filling Macau casino floors -- and the amount they are prepared to gamble -- are more closely linked to the ebbs and flows of credit availability in the wider economy.

渣打(Standard Chartered)同意這一看法，認爲澳門賭場的賭客數量（以及他們願意投入的賭資）與整體經濟中的信貸投放漲落密切相關。

Faster loan growth tends to filter through to stronger casino revenues with a six-month time lag, the bank says. That may reflect gamblers feeling more content to fritter away their earnings at the baccarat tables as the economy improves.

渣打稱，更快的信貸增長往往會滯後六個月才能滲透轉化爲賭場的更強勁收入。這可能反映出，在經濟改善的時候，賭客們更願意在賭檯上揮霍自己賺的錢。

'Our call at the beginning of the year [was that] consensus estimates on gross gaming revenues were way too high and that credit tightening in China was going to feed through -- and it has,' said Erwin Sanft, Standard Chartered's head of Hong Kong and China research.

渣打負責香港和中國內地研究的桑夫特(Erwin Sanft)說，我們今年年初的看法是，有關整體博彩收入的一致估計過高，且中國內地信貸收緊將會產生影響，事實也的確如此。

The bank thinks casino stocks -- which have fallen around 14% year-to-date compared with a largely flat Hang Seng Index - now look attractive, as China's incremental efforts to ease companies' access to credit add up to a big effect on the broader economy.

渣打認爲，博彩類股現在頗具吸引力，因中國內地放寬企業信貸渠道的漸進舉措累加起來對整體經濟產生了很大的影響。博彩類股今年迄今下跌了14%左右，而恆生指數大致持平。

'Gross gaming revenues will remain weak in the next couple of months, and certainly going into the fourth quarter we'd expected things to start to improve again,' Mr Sanft added.

桑夫特補充說，未來幾個月整體博彩收入仍將保持疲弱，而進入第四季度後我們無疑將期待形勢開始再次改善。

Casino share prices have surged in trading today, after the People's Bank of China moved to ease loan-to-deposit limits for Chinese banks on Monday. Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd () gains 2.8% to HK$63.75 and Sands China Ltd () is up 1.8% to HK$59.60 at midday.

博彩類股週三飆升，之前中國央行週一出臺政策放寬中資銀行的存貸比限制。週三午盤，銀河娛樂集團有限公司(Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.)漲2.8%，至63.75港元，金沙中國有限公司(Sands China Ltd.)漲1.8%至59.60港元。