中國"防空識別區"給航空公司添煩惱

A week and a half after China suddenly asserted authority over a busy patch of airspace in the East China Sea, concerns are rising that Asia's territorial disputes could end up weighing on commercial air travel.

在中國突然就東中國海(East China Sea, 中國稱東海)一塊繁忙的空域宣示權力一週半之後，圍繞亞洲領土爭端可能影響民航業務的擔憂不斷加劇。

More than 1,000 flights a day, some 6% of air traffic in east Asia, likely pass through the area, according to data from OAG, a U.K.-based flight-information provider. On Nov. 23, China declared the area to be an air-defense identification zone, or ADIZ-an extra buffer beyond a country's official air space, in which foreign planes may be asked to identify themselves and their flight plans.

根據英國航班信息提供商OAG的數據，每天有逾1,000架次航班（約爲東亞航空班次的6%），可能通過這一區域。11月23日中國宣佈這塊空域爲中國的防空識別區，即正式領空之外的額外緩衝區，在這個區域內，外國飛機可能被要求通報身份以及飛行計劃。

China's declaration has already caused a split among the world's carriers over how to respond, since the new ADIZ-which was created over a set of disputed islands-overlaps ADIZ that already exist from Japan and Taiwan, which also claim the territory, as well as South Korea.

由於這一新的防空識別區（設在一系列爭議島嶼上空）與日本、臺灣及韓國現有的防空識別區有重疊，中國此舉已然令全球航空公司就如何應對產生了分歧。日本和臺灣也對這些島嶼宣告主權。

Chinese officials say that 55 airLines including those from the U.S. are obeying the new zone rules, which among other things require airlines passing through to file flight plans with China-and face possible military action if they're recalcitrant. But Japanese and South Korean airlines, which operate a major portion of the traffic through the zone-around 500 flights a day-are ignoring the rules.

中國官員稱，包括美國公司在內的55家航空公司都遵守了新的防空識別區規定，根據規定，通過這一區域的飛機需要向中國提交飛行計劃而且未遵守規定者可能面臨軍事行動。但是日本和韓國航空公司未予理會。經過這一區域的航班大多來自日本和韓國的航空公司――每天約500架次。

'Politics is politics. But safety should be placed at the forefront,' said Yi Shin-Juang, deputy director of air-traffic services at Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration, explaining its decision to have its airlines obey China's newly imposed rules even as the Taiwanese government raises concerns over the ADIZ.

儘管臺灣對中國防空識別區心存擔憂，但是臺灣民用航空局仍決定讓其航空公司遵守中國新規定；該機構航管組副組長易心莊解釋道，政治是政治，但是安全還是應該放在首位的。

Adding to the uncertainties, South Korea is considering responding to China's move by extending its own ADIZ to cover a submerged rock both countries claim. Some analysts are asking whether China might extend its ADIZ next into the South China Sea, where it is trying to assert sovereignty over islands that are also claimed by other nations like the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

令不確定性加劇的是，韓國正在考慮擴大防空識別區、覆蓋兩國均宣告主權的暗礁，以此迴應中國的舉動。一些分析人士現在猜測，中國下一步是否會將防空識別區拓展至南中國海上空；目前中國與菲律賓、越南和馬來西亞對南中國海的一些島嶼存在主權爭議。

'If China opts to repeat the (air-defense zone) fiasco in the South China Sea, this will risk destabilizing the region further,' said Daniel Tsang, founder and chief analyst at Aspire Aviation, a Hong Kong-based consultancy. 'The last thing airlines want to see at this stage, with the weak and anemic global economic recovery, would be a fray in bilateral ties that would harm business travel and leisure traffic,' he added.

香港諮詢公司Aspire Aviation創始人兼首席分析師Daniel Tsang稱，如果中國選擇在南中國海重演防空識別區鬧劇，那麼將有可能給該地區的穩定帶來進一步威脅；在全球經濟復甦疲軟乏力之際，航空公司目前階段最不願意看到的是雙邊關係緊張，衝擊全球商務和休閒旅行。

Measuring the potential impact is tough. Air travel demand between China and Japan has fallen significantly during the past year and a half, amid territorial friction between the two nations, hurting profits of their key airlines. Japan's big airlines say they haven't yet seen a significant impact from their decision to defy China's new zone rules, although privately, an official from one carrier said the airline is concerned customers may become worried about safety.

估算潛在影響是很困難的。過去一年半，受領土爭端影響，中日之間的航空旅行需求已經大大下降，對雙方主要航空公司的利潤都有衝擊。日本一些大型航空公司稱，尚未發現反抗中國新防空識別區規定的決定產生了顯著影響，不過某航空公司的一位管理人士私下表示，該公司擔心客戶可能擔憂安全問題。

The region's airlines have had awkward run-ins with defense zones before. When Taiwan's airlines began flying regularly into mainland China four years ago, routes to the northeastern cities of Qingdao and Dalian took jetliners briefly over Japan's ADIZ, and more than a dozen of those initial flights received emergency radio commands by Japanese authorities to divert, or face the threat of military interception, according to the Taiwan Civil Aeronautics Administration.

事實上，該地區的航空公司以前就曾在防空識別區有過尷尬遭遇。臺灣民用航空局表示，四年前臺灣航班開始定期飛往中國大陸時，飛往青島和大連的航線需要短暫飛越日本的防空識別區，而最初的航班中有十多架飛機都收到了日本監管部門要求飛機改道的緊急無線電指令，如不聽從則會面臨日本軍事攔截的威脅。

Taiwan's aviation regulator said the problem was that its airlines hadn't filed flight plans with Japan, since the routes passed only through Japan's defense zone and not official airspace. Japan asked Taiwan to file the plans, and it has complied ever since-similar to what's happening now with China's ADIZ-the regulator said.

臺灣航空監管部門稱，問題是臺灣的航空公司當時都未向日本提交飛行計劃，因爲這些航線只是穿越日本的防空識別區而不是領空；日本要求臺灣方面提交飛行計劃，臺灣此後也遵守了這一規定。這與目前中國防空識別區所發生的情況頗爲相似。

Japan's defense ministry said its air force had scrambled jets eight times during that period to respond to Taiwanese planes, but declined to elaborate. Japan's foreign ministry said the country doesn't scramble for planes that aren't approaching Japan's territorial airspace, and doesn't ask for flight plans when the planes are only flying over Japan's ADIZ, but declined to comment further.

日本防衛省(Ministry of Defense)表示，在那段時期，日本航空自衛隊曾八次出動飛機來應對臺灣飛機。但防衛省沒有透露詳情。日本外務省(Ministry Of Foreign Affairs)表示，對於沒有逼近日本領空的飛機，日本不會採取行動；如果飛機只是飛越日本防空識別區，日本也不會要求其提交飛行計劃。但外務省拒絕發表更多評論。

Airlines and analysts say that despite the proliferation of defense zones there is little risk to safety of commercial craft because jetliners are clearly identified and their flight paths easily accessed. The International Air Transport Association, which represents the bulk of the world's carriers, said flight operations have been unaffected, and it hasn't received any reports of problems from member airlines.

航空公司和分析人士稱，防空識別區的範圍正在擴大，但並沒有給商用飛機的安全帶來太多風險，因爲噴氣式客機能夠被清楚地識別，而且它們的飛行路線也很容易追蹤。代表全球大部分航空公司的組織國際航空運輸協會(International Air Transport Association)表示，航班運營並未受到影響，尚未收到任何來自航空公司會員的問題報告。

Still, some industry watchers warned that tensions could rise, especially if Japan and China drastically increase military activity over the zone. Old-timers point to the 1983 downing of Korean Air 0.00% Flight 007, which drifted off course into Soviet airspace at the height of the Cold War, and was shot down by a Soviet jet fighter that mistook it for a hostile military craft, killing all 269 people aboard.

不過，一些行業觀察人士警告說，該地區的緊張局勢可能升級，特別是如果日本和中國在該區域的軍事活動顯著增加。熟悉歷史的人會想到1983年大韓航空公司(Korean Air Lines Co.) 007號航班被擊落一事。當時正值冷戰(Cold War)高潮，這架迷航的飛機誤入蘇聯領空，被蘇聯戰機當作敵方軍機擊落，導致機上269人全部遇難。

Experts say such mistakes are unlikely, given advances in technology, but can't be ruled out.

專家們稱，由於科技的發展，現在已不太可能出現這種失誤，但也不能排除這種可能性。

'It's hard to predict the outcome if confrontations of military jets from both sides take place,' said Humphrey Sun, a commercial pilot for China Eastern Airlines Corp. -2.28% who regularly flies between mainland China and Taiwan. He added that he believes the governments would make flight safety a top priority.

中國東方航空股份有限公司(China Eastern Airlines Co. 簡稱：東方航空)在中國大陸與臺灣之間往來飛行的商用飛機飛行員孫慧(Humphrey Sun)表示，若中日雙方軍機對峙，則很難估計後果。他還表示，相信雙方政府都會將飛行安全放在首位。

Japan last week raised concerns about ADIZ to the United Nation's International Civil Aviation Organization, saying that if countries unilaterally imposed rules on commercial planes flying through such zones, that could cause confusion and extra paperwork--not to mention worries over possible military enforcement. Japan called for more discussion on ADIZ at the organization's next meetings starting late February.

日本上週向聯合國(United Nation)的國際民用航空組織(International Civil Aviation Organization)表達了對防空識別區的擔憂。日本稱，如果有國家單方面對飛越防空識別區的商用飛機制定規則，則可能引發混亂和額外的規則制定工作，更不要說對可能出現的軍事幹預的擔憂。日本呼籲國際民用航空組織在明年2月末召開的下一次會議上就防空識別區展開更多討論。