石油需求下降暗示全球增長放緩

Wondering where global growth is headed this year? It might help to keep an eye on today's oil prices.

想要知道今年的全球增長情況嗎？關注一下當前的油價或許能有所幫助。

A sharp drop in global oil demand that began in May was a 'leading indicator' of slowing global growth, as the latest round of gross domestic product data from Europe and Japan have confirmed, says London consulting firm Energy Aspects.

倫敦諮詢公司Energy Aspects稱，自5月份開始全球石油需求大幅下滑是全球增長放緩的“先行指標”，而歐洲和日本公佈的最新國內生產總值(GDP)數據也證實了這一點。

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down 12% from its mid-June peak, the result of tepid demand from European and Asian refineries as well as a perception of reduced geopolitical risk. While prices trawl 14-Month lows near $101 a barrel, they are still too high to lure more demand from drivers and other consumers, Energy Aspects says.

由於歐洲和亞洲煉油廠需求疲軟，加上市場感覺地緣政治風險在下降，作爲全球油價基準的布倫特原油價格已較6月中旬高位下跌了12%。Energy Aspects表示，雖然布倫特原油價格已跌至每桶101美元左右的14個月低點，但仍不足以激發駕車者和其他消費者的更多需求。

'Overall weakness in global oil prices signal that demand has not really picked up' yet, the firm says. 'This raises the question of whether the global economy and stock markets are due for a lurch downwards' later this year.

Energy Aspects稱，全球油價的整體疲軟態勢表明需求尚未真正回升，這令人懷疑全球經濟和股市是否會在今年晚些時候突然下行。

The Brent futures market points to sluggish demand. In July, the futures market for global benchmark Brent crude flipped out of backwardation -- when the front-month contract is more expensive that contracts for delivery in later months. Brent is now in contango, meaning that the front-month October contract is cheaper than contracts for later this year and next.

布倫特原油期貨市場狀況顯示出需求低迷。7月份，作爲全球油價基準的布倫特原油期貨價格脫離了倒價結構。所謂倒價結構，是指近月合約的期貨價格高於遠月合約的價格。目前布倫特原油期貨價格處於順價結構，十月份交割的期貨價格低於今年底和明年交割的期貨價格。

Contango indicates that traders are buying near-term supplies at a discount because there are enough barrels to go around.

順價表明交易員們正在以低價買進短期合約，因爲原油供應充足。

On Monday, Oman crude oil on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange flipped to contango as well. While Brent is most reflective of the European market, the contango in Oman suggests that the Asian market is also well-supplied.

週一，迪拜商品交易所交易的阿曼原油期貨合約也出現順價。布倫特原油是歐洲原油市場走勢的風向標，而阿曼原油期貨出現順價則表明亞洲市場供應也很充足。

The link between global growth and oil prices does carry some caveats, of course. A geopolitical crisis that threatens oil production from Iraq, Russia or elsewhere could send prices soaring again. And oil demand typically falls in the late summer and early fall as refiners perform seasonal maintenance, so stronger global growth might not show up in oil prices right away.

當然，把全球經濟增長和油價聯繫在一起確實需要注意一些問題。威脅到伊拉克、俄羅斯和其他地區原油產量的地緣政治危機可能推動油價再度飆升。由於煉油廠會在夏末秋初之際進行季節性維護，在此期間石油需求一般會出現下跌，因此全球經濟增長加速的影響可能不會馬上在油價中體現出來。

Still, Energy Aspects says, demand for gasoline, diesel and other oil products could be an important indicator in the second half of the year.

但是Energy Aspects表示，對汽油、柴油和其他成品油的需求可能是顯示下半年經濟增長的重要指標。

'We are definitely not suggesting that the oil market is pointing towards a severe global recession, but [oil markets] may be telling us something about the state of the world economy which economic forecasts are currently not capturing,' the firm says.

該公司表示，雖然不能確定無疑地說油市走勢表明全球經濟出現了嚴重衰退，但也可能從中窺探出經濟預期中尚未反映出的全球經濟形勢的一些情況。