世行研究表明 埃博拉將重創西非經濟

Concerns grew over the potential economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa after the World Bank warned that the region faced a $32.6bn economic hit if the disease were not contained.

世界銀行(World Bank)警告，如果埃博拉疫情得不到遏制，爆發疫情的西非地區將面臨326億美元的經濟代價衝擊，這加劇了人們對疫情潛在經濟影響的關注。

This was the grimmest estimate yet of the economic cost of an outbreak that has left 3,400 people dead in west Africa and this week saw a nurse in Madrid catch the virus, the first case to originate outside Africa.

對於埃博拉帶來的經濟代價，這是迄今最嚴峻的估測。這場疫情已造成西非地區3400人死亡，本週馬德里的一名護士感染了埃博拉病毒，成爲首個在非洲以外感染的病例。

The warning came as doctors in Texas said a 42-year-old man who contracted Ebola in Liberia last month died at a Dallas hospital. In Spain, Mariano Rajoy, prime minister, appealed for calm after another nurse who was in contact with Ebola patients at a hospital in Madrid became the sixth person to be held under close medical surveillance there.

世行發出警告的同時，德克薩斯州的醫生宣佈一名上月在利比里亞感染了埃博拉病毒的42歲男子在達拉斯的醫院死亡。在西班牙，另一名曾在馬德里的醫院接觸過埃博拉病患的護士成爲第6名接受嚴密醫學監控的人，西班牙首相馬里亞諾•拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)呼籲人們保持冷靜。

US officials plan to increase health screenings of passengers from west Africa and investors are concerned at the potential for a broader travel impact as people choose to stay at home rather than expose themselves to the risk of infection.

美國官員計劃加強對來自西非的旅客的健康篩查。投資者擔心，隨着人們選擇待在家裏，而不是將自己暴露於受感染的風險，可能給旅遊業帶來整體衝擊。

According to the World Bank’s estimates in a “Low Ebola” scenario, which would see the outbreak contained to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone by the end of this year, the impact on gross domestic product would amount to $3.8bn by the end of 2015.

根據世行的預估，在“低危埃博拉”情景下，埃博拉疫情將在今年底被控制在幾內亞、利比里亞和塞拉利昂以內，到2015年底，疫情對國內生產總值(GDP)的影響將達到38億美元。

Under a “High Ebola” scenario, in which the outbreak spreads to neighbouring countries, the region’s economy would lose $7.4bn this year and a further $25.2bn in 2015, or the equivalent of 3.3 per cent of regional gross domestic product. Despite the dire forecasts, the IMF still believes Sierra Leone will this year and next be one of the world’s top-10 fastest growing economies.

而在“高危埃博拉”的情景下，疫情將擴散到鄰近國家，該地區的經濟將在今年內損失74億美元，並在2015年再損失252億美元，相當於該地區GDP的3.3%。儘管世行作出可怕的前景預測，但國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)仍認爲，塞拉利昂在今年和明年都將是世界上增長最快的10個經濟體之一。