爲什麼巨型集裝箱運輸突然統治了海運業

On Monday, December 8, the newly-christened CSCL Globe left port in Shanghai en route to Europe on its maiden voyage. Capable of carrying 19,100 twenty-foot shipping containers—19,100 TEU, as they say in the industry—the Globe, constructed by Hyundai Heavy Industries and owned by the state-run China Shipping Company, is now the world’s largest container ship by volume. It is also among the largest ships in operation by raw size, at 400 meters long and 59 meters wide. If you cut the antenna tower off the Empire State Building, it would be 20 meters shorter than the Globe is long.

12月8日週一，這艘全新的中海集運“環球號”離開上海港駛往歐洲，開始了它的首航。“環球號”可裝載1.91萬個20英尺標準集裝箱（或業內所稱的1.91萬TEU），由韓國現代重工集團建造，隸屬於中國海運集團總公司，是目前全球容量最大的集裝箱船隻，長400米，寬59米，單是其尺寸就已躋身目前世界最大的運營船舶之列。如果不計算紐約帝國大廈樓頂的天線塔，那麼該船的長度比帝國大廈的高度還要多出20米。

But the CSCL Globe is more than just a really, really big ship. Its massive size reflects equally massive changes that have reshaped the ocean shipping industry over the past decade as carriers build ever-bigger ships to capture economies of scale in fuel and crew costs. The capital-intensive strategy is squeezing out smaller players and triggering consolidation across an industry that has long resisted it, while putting new demands on global shipping infrastructure.

但中海集運“環球號”絕不僅僅是一艘巨輪而已。其巨大的尺寸同樣反映出過去十年間航運界發生的巨大變化。爲了實現燃油和人工方面的規模效益，航運公司建造的船隻越來越大，而這一變化重塑了整個行業。這種資本密集型戰略正在把小競爭者擠出市場，也在促使此前長期牴觸整合的航運界開始了全行業的整合，同時也對全球海運基礎設施提出了新的要求。

So-called megaships have come to dominate container shipping with astonishing rapidity over the past decade. The industry was bowled over in 2003 by the arrival of the then-massive OOCL Shenzhen—but its 8,063 TEU capacity is unremarkable by today’s standards.

過去十年間，巨型船舶以令人驚歎的發展速度開始引領集裝箱船運市場。2003年，深圳東方海外的巨型集裝箱船曾經征服了當時的市場，但以今天的標準來看，其8063標箱的容量已不足爲奇。

The shift to larger ships was pushed along by the global financial crisis and rising fuel costs. After rates for container shipping hit record highs in the 1990s and early 2000s, prices collapsed along with global trade in 2008 and 2009. Orders to shipbuilders around the world were cancelled in droves.

全球金融危機和不斷攀升的燃油價格也是船隻尺寸變大的推手。集裝箱船的運價在90年代至21世紀早期達到歷史高點後，於2008至2009年間隨着全球貿易的萎縮出現暴跌，各地造船廠的訂單都被陸續取消。

When orders picked up again, they were almost all for megaships. Hyundai Heavy Industries, for instance, reports that since 2010 it has built 82 ships of more than 10,000 TEU but has received orders for only five ships in the 5,000 TEU range.

隨後，雖然訂單量再次回升，但幾乎所有的訂單都是巨型船舶。比如，韓國現代重工的報告表示，自2010年起它們已建造了82艘容量超過1萬標箱的船隻，但只有5筆容量爲5000標箱的訂單。

These capital-intensive larger ships have, predictably, concentrated in the hands of the largest carriers. “To play with the big boys now, you have to be putting a huge amount of money out,” says Sam Chambers, editorial director of the trade journal SinoShip. According to a Drewry Maritime Research report from July 2014, MSC operates 696 ships above 10,000 TEU, Maersk operates 433, and CMA CGM Group has 363.

可以預想，這些資本密集型的大船已經集中在規模最大的海運公司手中。行業刊物《中國船運》編輯主任薩姆o錢伯斯說：“要和大佬們玩，你就得花大價錢” 。德魯裏海事研究公司2014年7月的報告顯示，地中海航運運營的船隻當中容量超1萬標箱的有696艘，馬士基有433艘，達飛有363艘。

The efficiencies of the larger ships are a boon for individual shippers, and for the global environment. They consume as little as 50% of the fuel per container moved as older ships, while also more than halving insurance and staffing costs. A megaship requires the same 20-odd crew as a smaller ship but can carry three times the cargo.

大船效率的提高對於個體承運人和全球大環境來說都有益處。其單個集裝箱運輸所耗燃油僅爲老船隻的50%，保險和人工成本也降低了一半多。和較小的船隻相比，一艘巨型船舶同樣需要20多個船員，但運力卻是小船的三倍。

The effect on the industry as a whole is less sanguine. “In terms of supply and demand, the industry is blighted by what we describe as structural overcapacity,” says Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of supply chain research. Large carriers have mitigated that oversupply to a degree through a practice known as “slow-steaming”—intentionally operating ships at as little as half their normal speed, which both reins in capacity and offers further fuel savings.

巨型船舶對整個行業的影響則沒有那麼樂觀。德魯裏供應鏈研究高級經理賽門o希尼說：“供求方面，行業遭遇了我們所說的結構性產能過剩的衝擊”。大的運輸公司通過“減速航行”的方式來削弱過度供給造成的影響，即刻意地讓船以正常航速的一半來航行，既控制運力，也進一步節省了燃油。

With less access to efficiencies of scale or speed, smaller carriers are losing ground fast. Carriers outside of the global top 10 operate only dozens or, in some cases, zero megaships. Some have been forced into mergers, such as the acquisition of CSAV by Hapag-Lloyd in April. Further consolidation has taken the form of cargo-sharing agreements. By early 2015, the Asia-Europe container trade will be entirely controlled by just four major alliances.

由於難以獲得規模效益或在速度上做文章，小型運輸公司的處境迅速惡化。全球排名前十之外的運輸公司僅運營着幾十艘巨型船，有些甚至連一艘都沒有。其中的一些公司被迫投入他人的懷抱，比如4月份赫伯羅特就併購了南美輪船。此外，貨運共享協議也是行業整合的另一種形式。到2015年初，僅四大海運聯盟就可以完全控制亞歐集裝箱業務。

Infrastructure limitations have kept the largest of the megaships confined to those Asia-Europe routes. Ships the size of the CSCL Globe are too large to fit through the Panama Canal, and neither East nor West Coast U.S. ports are equipped to handle them anyway. The expansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate megaships is underway, and the Hong Kong-based investment group HKND is currently exploring the construction of a large canal across Nicaragua. But the megaships are having ripple effects around the world by pushing older, smaller ships out of service on Asia-Europe routes, inflating capacity and pushing down prices everywhere.

由於基礎設施的限制，巨型船舶中尺寸最大的都只能在亞歐航線上運營。像中海集運“環球號”這樣尺寸的船已經無法通過巴拿馬運河，而以目前的設施水平，美國東海岸和西海岸的港口也都無力接納這樣的船隻。巴拿馬運河擴容工程目前正在進行，投資集團香港尼加拉瓜運河開發投資有限公司也準備在尼加拉瓜開發建造一條運河。巨型船舶所產生的漣漪效應已波及世界各地，因爲它迫使老船和小船退出亞歐航線的運營，並造成了運力的膨脹和運價的普降。

Industry watchers say the CSCL Globe is unlikely to retain its world’s-biggest title for long. Sam Chambers of SinoShip expects to see a 20,000 TEU ship ordered by early 2015, and ships of up to 24,000 TEU would be viable with current Asia-Europe infrastructure. That would mean continued chronic overcapacity, and even more pressure on smaller shippers worldwide.

行業觀察者說，中海集運“環球號”世界第一的稱號可能不會長久。《中國海運》雜誌的薩姆o錢伯斯預計，2015年初可能會出現2萬標箱的船隻訂單，以目前亞歐航線基礎設施情況來看，未來製造2.4萬標箱的船隻也是可行的。而這意味着，產能過剩的局面將會長時間持續，同時也會爲全球的小型運輸公司帶來更大的壓力。（財富中文網）