德國 未來的歐洲第一綠色大國

BERLIN — A week at the American Academy in Berlin leaves me with two contradictory feelings: one is that Germany today deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and the other is that Germany tomorrow will have to overcome its deeply ingrained post-World War II pacifism and become a more serious, activist global power. And I say both as a compliment.

柏林——在柏林美國學院(American Academy)度過的一週，給我留下兩個相互矛盾的感受：一是今天的德國理應得到一座諾貝爾和平獎，二是明天的德國必須摒棄二戰以來根深蒂固的和平主義，成爲一股更威嚴、更主動的全球力量。兩者都是一種讚譽。

On the first point, what the Germans have done in converting almost 30 percent of their electric grid to solar and wind energy from near zero in about 15 years has been a great contribution to the stability of our planet and its climate. The centerpiece of the German Energiewende, or energy transformation, was an extremely generous “feed-in tariff” that made it a no-brainer for Germans to install solar power (or wind) at home and receive a predictable high price for the energy generated off their own rooftops.

關於第一點，德國人已經把電網中將近三成的電力來源轉換成太陽能和風能，大概15年前這個比例接近零，這對我們這個星球和氣候的穩定性是有重大意義的。德國的Energiewende（能源轉型）的核心是“上網電價補貼”(feed-in tariff)，該政策給出的條件極爲優厚，讓德國人毫不猶豫地開始在家中安裝太陽能（或風能），而且自家屋頂產生的能源能夠賣出可預見的高價。

There is no denying that the early days of the feed-in tariff were expensive. The subsidies cost billions of euros, paid for through a surcharge on everyone’s electric bill. But the goal was not simply to buy more renewable energy: It was to create demand that would drive down the cost of solar and wind to make them mainstream, affordable options. And, in that, Energiewende has been an undiluted success. With price drops of more than 80 percent for solar, and 55 percent for wind, zero-carbon energy is now competitive with fossil fuels here.

不可否認的是，上網電價補貼在初期代價會非常大。數十億歐元的補貼，是通過增收所有人的電費來支付的。但這樣做的目的不只是購買更多可再生能源：它要創造需求，以壓低太陽能和風能的成本，把它們變成主流的、廉價的能源選項。在這一點上，Energiewende獲得了無可爭議的成功。太陽能電價降幅超80%，風能降幅55%，現在零排放能源跟化石燃料比是有競爭力的。

“In my view the greatest success of the German energy transition was giving a boost to the Chinese solar panel industry,” said Ralf Fücks, the president of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, the German Green Party’s political foundation. “We created the mass market, and that led to the increased productivity and dramatic decrease in cost.” And all this in a country whose northern tip is the same latitude as the southern tip of Alaska!

“在我看來，德國能源轉型的最大成功在於促進了中國太陽能產業的發展，”德國綠黨(Green Party)下屬政治基金會海因裏希·伯爾(Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung)的會長阿爾夫·富克斯(Ralf Fücks)說。“我們在這一領域創造了大衆市場，從而提高生產效率，大幅壓低成本。”這一切，都是由一個國土北端跟阿拉斯加南端在同一緯度上的國家實現的！

This is a world-saving achievement. And, happily, as the price fell, the subsidies for new installations also dropped. The Germans who installed solar ended up making money, which is why the program remains popular, except in coal-producing regions. Today, more than 1.4 million German households and cooperatives are generating their own solar/wind electricity. “There are now a thousand energy cooperatives operated by private people,” said the energy economist Claudia Kemfert.

這是一項拯救世界的成就。而且令人欣喜的是，隨着價格的下降，對新裝用戶的補貼也下降了。安裝了太陽能板的德國人最終是賺錢的，這就是爲什麼該項目始終很受歡迎，只有產煤區例外。目前德國有140多萬戶家庭和協作組織在使用自己的太陽能/風能電力。“現在有上千個私立能源協作組織在運行，”能源經濟學家克勞迪婭·肯福爾特(Claudia Kemfert)說。

Oliver Krischer, the vice chairman of the Green Party’s parliamentary group, told me: “I have a friend who comes home, and, if the sun is shining, he doesn’t even say hello to his wife. He first goes downstairs and looks at the meter to see what [electricity] he has produced himself. ... The idea now is that energy is something you can [produce] on your own. It’s a new development.” And it has created so much pushback against the country’s four major coal/nuclear utilities that one of them, , just split into two companies — one focusing on squeezing the last profits from coal, oil, gas and nuclear, while the other focuses on renewables. Germans jokingly call them “” and “.”

綠黨議會黨團副主席奧列佛·科舍爾(Oliver Krischer)告訴我：“我有個朋友，在有太陽的日子，到家都顧不上跟妻子打招呼，會徑直到樓下去查電錶，看看自己發了多少[電]。現在有了能源可以自己來[生產]的觀念。這是個進展。”該國的四大煤電/核電公司受到極大衝擊，以至於其中意昂集團()分拆成了兩個公司——一個專注於榨取煤炭、石油、天然氣和核能最後的一點利潤，另一個專注可再生能源。德國人開玩笑說它們分別叫“”和“”。

One problem: Germany still has tons of cheap, dirty lignite coal that is used as backup power for wind and solar, because cleaner natural gas is more expensive and nuclear is being phased out.

這裏有一個問題：德國仍然有大量廉價、骯髒的褐煤，用來作爲風能和太陽能的後備，因爲更清潔的天然氣要更貴，而核能正被逐步淘汰。

So if that’s the story on renewable power, how about national power? Two generations after World War II, Germany’s reticence to project any power outside its borders is deeply ingrained in the political psyche here. That is a good thing, given Germany’s past. But it is not sustainable. There is an impressive weight to Germany today — derived from the quality of its governing institution, its rule of law, and the sheer power of its economy built on midsize businesses — that is unique in Europe.

可再生電力是這樣，那麼國家勢力的情況如何呢？經過二戰後兩代人的發展，不願意將自己的力量伸展到國境之外的心態，已在德國政治中深深紮根。考慮到歷史，這是好事。但這是不可持續的。以當今德國的地位之重要，在歐洲絕無僅有——這是源於它在行政制度、法治方面的高水準，以及基於中型企業的強勢經濟。

When you talk to German officials about Greece, their main complaint is not about Greek fiscal policy, which is better lately, but about the rot and corruption in Greece’s governing institutions. The Greeks “couldn’t implement the structural reforms they needed if they wanted to,” one German financial official said to me. Athens’s institutions are a mess.

當你跟德國官員談起希臘時，他們的主要不滿不是希臘的財政政策——這方面近來已經好轉了——而是它的政府機構的腐敗。一位德國財政官員跟我說，希臘人“無法實施結構性改革，有這個意願也做不到。”希臘的政府部門一團糟。

With America less interested in Europe, Britain fading away both from the European Union and the last vestiges of it being a global military power, France and Italy economically hobbled and most NATO members shrinking their defense budgets, I don’t see how Germany avoids exercising more leadership. Its economic sanctions are already the most important counter to Russian aggression in Ukraine. And in the Mediterranean Sea, where Europe now faces a rising tide of refugees (and where Russia and China just announced that their navies will hold a joint exercise in mid-May), Germany will have to catalyze some kind of E.U. naval response.

美國對歐洲的興趣在減少，英國正淡出歐盟，而最後僅存的那點作爲全球性軍事力量的身份，也將蕩然無存，法國和意大利的經濟不振，大多數北約(NATO)國家都在縮減國防預算，德國發揮更多領導作用，在我看來是不可避免的。它對俄羅斯的經濟制裁，目前是對抗該國對烏克蘭的進犯的最重要手段。此外在地中海，歐洲要面對一股越來越洶涌的難民潮（而俄羅斯和中國剛宣佈，兩國海軍五月中旬會在那裏舉行聯合軍事演習），德國別無選擇，只能力主歐盟海上力量進行某種迴應。

The relative weight of German power vis-à-vis the rest of Europe just keeps growing, but don’t say that out loud here. A German foreign policy official put their dilemma this way: “We have to get used to assuming more leadership and be aware of how reluctant others are to have Germany lead — so we have to do it through the E.U.”

德國跟其他歐洲國家在影響力上的差距還會進一步拉大，但話不能說太直白。一位德國外交政策官員表達了他們的兩難境地：“我們要做好擔負更多領導角色的準備，並且要清楚，其他國家有多不情願讓德國來帶頭——所以我們必須通過歐盟行事。”

Here’s my prediction: Germany will be Europe’s first green, solar-powered superpower. Can those attributes coexist in one country, you ask? They’re going to have to.

我的預測：德國會是歐洲第一個綠色的、由太陽能驅動的超級大國。你也許會問，一個國家能同時具備這幾個屬性嗎？他們別無選擇。