中國高鐵項目 泰國軍政府深化泰中關係意願

A contentious Chinese high speed rail project in Thailand has emerged as an important test of both Beijing’s regional ambitions and the appetite of the ruling generals in Bangkok for deeper ties with their giant neighbour.

泰國一個有爭議的中國高鐵項目將是對北京方面的地區雄心、以及泰國軍政府深化泰中關係意願的重大考驗。

Questions swirl around the scope, cost and viability of a plan that critics have branded the Train to Nowhere after the two countries said they wanted to push ahead with a $5.2bn first phase but pointed to initial construction of only 3.5km of track.

圍繞中泰高鐵計劃的規模、成本和可行性，人們提出了種種質疑。在兩國聲稱希望推進造價52億美元的第一期工程、但又表明最初僅建造3.5公里軌道之後，批評者將之戲稱爲哪兒也去不了的列車。

The project is part of a wider pivot by China to Southeast Asia as it seeks to build trade routes, exploit tensions with Washington, and quell opposition to its sea territory claims.

該項目是中國轉向東南亞地區的更廣泛戰略的一部分，這一戰略的目的是打通貿易線路、利用有些國家與美國之間的緊張關係以及消除各方對自身領海主張的反對。

But the Mekong rail initiative has also been plagued by delays and disagreements that highlight wider regional obstacles to Chinese dominance and its One Belt, One Road trade route strategy of investing in infrastructure in neighbouring countries — as well as those farther away.

但湄公河區域鐵路計劃也受到拖延和分歧等問題的困擾，突顯出中國的主導地位及其在鄰國及更遠地區投資建設基礎設施的一帶一路貿易線路戰略在地區遭遇更爲廣泛的障礙。

Aksornsri Phanishsarn, an economics professor and China specialist at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, said more than a dozen bilateral meetings on the proposed 873km Sino-Thai railway co-operation had still failed to resolve some big disagreements.

泰國國立法政大學(Thammasat University)經濟學教授及中國事務專家胡慧文(Aksornsri Phanishsarn)表示，中泰雙方就擬議的873公里鐵路合作計劃舉行了十多輪雙邊會談，但仍未解決一些重大分歧。

These included how the project would be funded and what the conditions of any loans from China would be.

這些分歧包括項目融資方式以及中國提供貸款的條件。

I do hope that these problems can be overcome if the two countries seriously work together with sincerity and concrete commitments to their mutual benefit, she said.

她表示：我衷心希望，如果雙方真誠合作，做出互惠互利的具體承諾，這些問題能夠得到解決。

The Mekong rail project has long been billed as a crucial plank in efforts to build a transport and trade bridge between China and a Southeast Asian region of more than 600m people.

湄公河區域鐵路項目一直被宣傳爲打造連接中國和有6億多人口的東南亞地區的交通和貿易橋樑的關鍵一環。

The first train route would run from the southern Chinese city of Kunming via Vientiane, the capital of Laos, then on to Bangkok and a port and petrochemical complex in the coastal Thai province of Rayong.

首條鐵路線將從中國南方城市昆明出發，經由老撾首都萬象，然後抵達曼谷和泰國沿海省份羅勇府的一個港口和石化工廠。

China and Thailand have provisionally agreed to a 179bn baht ($5.2bn) deal for the first 250km phase of the project within Thailand, which would run north from Bangkok to central Thailand, the country’s transport minister said last week.

泰國交通部長上週表示，中國和泰國暫時達成了1790億泰銖（合52億美元）的協議，將建設位於泰國境內的250公里的第一期工程——從曼谷以北延伸至泰國中部。

A building contract is scheduled to be tendered and awarded for an initial 3.5km section by November, with work to start before the end of the year.

按照計劃，最初3.5公里的建造合同將在今年11月前招標確定，並在年底前動工。

The announcement of such a short first segment has been mocked by some commentators but Narongsak Sanguansin, a Thai transport ministry official, said it would serve as a model and would allow any initial technical problems to be identified and resolved.

泰國宣佈如此短的首段工程，受到了一些評論人士的嘲笑。但是泰國交通部官員那龍薩•沙願辛(Narongsak Sanguansin)稱，這一路段將作爲樣板，以便發現和解決所有最初的技術問題。

This is the first time Thailand has had this kind of high-speed train construction, so there may be many things that need to be adjusted, he said.

這是泰國首次上馬這類高速鐵路建設，因此可能會有很多方面需要調整，他稱。

But the exact status of the project still remains unclear.

但是，該項目的確切狀況仍然不清楚。

A Chinese source with knowledge of investment in Thailand suggested the deal with Bangkok was not yet sealed.

一位瞭解中方對泰國投資情況的中國消息人士表示，與曼谷方面的協議尚未敲定。

They keep announcing it prematurely, he said.

他們不斷貿然宣佈相關消息，他稱。

The hiatus in reaching an agreement echoes delays in the $7bn China-Laos rail project, which was launched with much fanfare with a groundbreaking in December but has moved little since.

中泰項目的拖拉與中國-老撾鐵路項目如出一轍。這個價值70億美元的項目於去年12月大張旗鼓地舉行了動工儀式，但是從那之後幾乎沒有進展。

Vientiane said in July that work was on hold pending completion of reports on social and economic impact demanded by the Chinese banks backing the venture.

7月，老撾曾表示，工程暫停，等待提供融資的中方銀行所要求的社會和經濟影響報告完成。

Thailand’s generals have pushed for closer relations with China since their May 2014 coup.

自從2014年5月軍事政變後，泰國軍政府一直力推與中國建立更緊密的關係。

They want to kick-start their country’s sluggish economy, while relations with the US have cooled because of Washington’s criticism of the military putsch.

他們希望重振蕭條的國內經濟，同時由於華盛頓方面指責那次軍事政變，泰國與美國的關係逐漸冷卻。

For Beijing, the Thai project offers a gateway into a Southeast Asian regional hub and a chance to deepen relations with a military that has no territorial quarrels with China and is likely to remain highly influential in Bangkok even after elections provisionally scheduled for next year.

對於北京方面來說，泰國鐵路項目提供了進入東南亞地區中心的通道，並可以藉此機會深化與泰國軍方（和中國不存在領土爭端）的關係。即使在暫定於明年舉行的泰國大選後，泰國軍方也很可能保留在曼谷的重要影響力。

But some analysts say the Thai rail project makes little commercial or strategic sense.

但一些分析人士表示，泰國鐵路項目幾乎不具備商業和戰略價值。

Zhao Jian, economics professor at Beijing Jiaotong University and a trenchant critic of high-speed rail both within and outside China, said the Sino-Thai rail link was a loss-loss proposition and China will be the biggest loser.

北京交通大學(Beijing Jiaotong University)的經濟學教授趙堅對中國境內外的高鐵項目都持批評意見，他稱中泰鐵路線是個雙輸的提議，中國會成爲最大的輸家。

Even normal rail would probably be lossmaking in that region because there is no significant traffic there, Mr Zhao said. These countries don’t have any money.

即使是在該地區建設普通鐵路也可能虧損，因爲那裏沒有巨大的交通流量，趙堅稱，這些國家沒有錢。

They aren’t providing a guarantee, so the losses are China’s.

他們不會提供擔保，因此虧損將由中國承擔。

Other observers have suggested that big rail projects are useful to China because they mop up spare supply chain capacity that lacks enough orders domestically.

其他觀察人士表示，建設大型鐵路項目對中國有益，因爲這些項目可以吸納中國國內多餘的供應鏈產能。

Beijing argues demand for rail capacity will flourish as neighbouring countries become richer, as has happened in China itself.

北京方面認爲，隨着鄰國日益富有，它們對鐵路運力的需求將隨之高漲，正如中國的情況一樣。

Thailand has an extreme concentration of population and financial resources [in Bangkok], said Mei Xinyu, a Beijing-based economic strategist. If you built infrastructure elsewhere, the resources would follow and the under-developed areas would become more developed.

泰國的人口和財力高度集中（在曼谷），北京的經濟分析師梅新育稱，如果在其他地方建設基礎設施，資源就會流動起來，欠發達地區會變得發達一些。