西方應該如何遏制俄羅斯
Relations between the US and Russia have reached their lowest point in 30 years.
美國與俄羅斯的關係已跌落至30年來最低點。
Not since Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev began the effort to end the cold war have relations between the two been this bad.
自從羅納德.里根(Ronald Reagan)和米哈伊爾.戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)啓動結束冷戰的努力以來，兩國關係從未像現在這麼糟糕過。
On October 7, the US intelligence chief General James Clapper announced that the Kremlin’s senior-Most officials had authorised hacks into the emails of US individuals and institutions to interfere in the election process.
10月7日，美國國家情報總監(DNI)詹姆斯.克拉珀(James Clapper)宣佈，克里姆林宮的最高級官員授權黑客入侵美國個人和機構的電郵，以干擾美國的大選進程。
This followed a decision by John Kerry, secretary of state, to end a bilateral effort to negotiate an end to the brutal fighting in Syria and his accusation that Russian military actions in Aleppo amounted to war crimes.
此前，美國國務卿約翰.克里(John Kerry)決定叫停旨在結束敘利亞血腥戰鬥的雙邊努力，並指責俄羅斯在阿勒頗的軍事行動構成戰爭犯罪。
In turn, President Vladimir Putin ended participation in an agreement with the US to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium.
對此，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)退出了與美國的武器級鈈處理協議。
And then Moscow shipped nuclear-capable missile systems to Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and the Baltic states, posing an immediate threat to America’s most exposed Nato allies.
接着，莫斯科方面將能夠搭載核彈頭的導彈系統運至夾在波蘭與波羅的海國家之間的加里寧格勒(Kaliningrad)，對處在最大風險位置的美國在北約的盟友構成直接威脅。
This shows how badly relations have deteriorated since the illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine in early 2014.
這表明，自2014年初俄羅斯非法吞併克里米亞併入侵烏克蘭以來，美俄關係已惡化到非常嚴重的程度。
So far, neither Washington nor its European allies have produced a coherent response to Russia’s increasingly dangerous behaviour.
迄今爲止，美國及其歐洲盟友都沒有對俄羅斯日益危險的行爲做出一致迴應。
Nato has taken some steps to bolster the defence of its allies in the east, and European members have begun to reverse the decade-long slide in defence spending and capabilities.
北約已採取一些措施加強對其東翼盟友的防禦，歐盟成員國已開始逆轉國防開支和軍事實力長達10年的滑坡。
The US and Canada joined the EU in imposing sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the downing of a Malaysian airliner in July 2014.
在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及馬來西亞一架民航客機在2014年7月被擊落以後，美國和加拿大加入歐盟的行列，一起對俄羅斯實施了制裁。
But none of this adds up to a coherent strategy.
但所有這些都算不上一致的戰略。
Too many, in Europe especially, believe that political and economic engagement, coupled with military forbearance, will eventually bring Moscow around to a more constructive attitude.
太多人（特別是在歐洲）認爲，政治和經濟上的接觸，加上軍事上的剋制，最終將讓俄羅斯拿出更建設性的態度。
While the attempt to integrate Russia into the western system was a worthwhile experiment, it failed.
讓俄羅斯加入西方體系的嘗試是有意義的，但失敗了。
Integration is Mr Putin’s greatest fear, because it would undermine his control of the Russian system.
融合是普京最擔心的，因爲這將削弱他對俄羅斯體制的控制。
Like his Soviet predecessors, he needs the antagonism of the west to protect his standing at home.
與他在蘇聯時代的前任一樣，他需要西方的敵對來保護自己在國內的地位。
What, then, would be an effective response to Russia’s behaviour? The answer is a strategy of containment.
那麼，什麼纔是針對俄羅斯行爲的有效迴應呢？答案是遏制戰略。
In 1946, the American diplomat George Kennan argued that containment was the necessary response to a Soviet system that was driving towards external expansion because of internal weaknesses.
1946年，美國外交家喬治.凱南(George Kennan)主張，遏制是對蘇聯體制的必要回應，當時蘇聯正因國內虛弱轉向對外擴張。
Bringing Moscow into the family of nations, as Franklin Roosevelt had attempted to do, was bound to fail.
像富蘭克林.羅斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)那樣試圖把俄羅斯納入國際大家庭的努力註定要失敗。
Outside pressure would lead to the internal change necessary to modify external Soviet behaviour, Kennan said.
凱南表示，外部壓力將促成改變蘇聯對外行爲所必需的國內改革。
During the cold war, the big question for the US and its allies was whether to oppose expansion whenever and wherever it occurred, or to isolate Moscow diplomatically and economically while bolstering the protection of American interests in Europe and Asia.
在冷戰時期，美國及其盟友面臨的一個重大問題是，應該在擴張發生的任何時間和任何地方作出反制，還是在外交和經濟上孤立俄羅斯、同時增強對美國在歐洲和亞洲利益的保護？
The debate is much the same today.
如今的辯論大致相同。
Some maintain that we need to oppose Russia everywhere it manifests its power — in Ukraine, in Syria and in cyber space.
一些人堅稱，我們需要在俄羅斯炫耀實力的所有地方（烏克蘭、敘利亞和網絡空間）跟俄羅斯作對。
Others that we need to strengthen Nato and exploit Russia’s deteriorating economy and lack of ideological appeal abroad.
還有一些人聲稱，我們需要加強北約的實力，同時利用俄羅斯的弱點，包括經濟日益惡化和在國外缺乏意識形態影響力。
Now, as then, containment must be a long-term strategy, best sustained by emphasising western strengths and Russian weaknesses.
如今，與過去一樣，遏制必須是一項長期戰略，強調西方優勢和俄羅斯劣勢將最有利於維持這一戰略。
The core of our strength is western unity.
我們的力量核心是西方陣營的團結。
That is why President Barack Obama and other Nato leaders were right to respond to the invasion of Ukraine by boosting the alliance’s defences.
正因如此，美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和其他北約領導人通過增強同盟防禦來回應俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的做法是正確的。
Russia’s greatest vulnerability is its economy, dependent as it is on resource extraction; a strong regime of sanctions will hurt Moscow.
俄羅斯的最大脆弱性在於國內經濟依賴資源開採；強大的制裁機制將觸到莫斯科方面的痛處。
We need to recognise Russia is an insecure power driven by internal weakness.
我們需要認識到，俄羅斯是一個缺乏安全感的大國，其推動力是內部虛弱。
Containment took 40 years to bring about a change in Soviet behaviour and ultimately the collapse of the USSR.
遏制戰略用了40年時間讓蘇聯的行爲發生改變，最終導致蘇聯解體。
Russia is far weaker now than the Soviet Union was then, but it will still take years to change the way it behaves.
現在的俄羅斯比當年的蘇聯虛弱得多，但仍需堅持多年才能改變其行爲方式。
Like then, containment requires patience and firmness to succeed.
與那時一樣，遏制戰略需要耐心和堅定才能成功。
