俄羅斯和西方此消彼長 世事難料
Twenty-five years ago this week I went to Moscow for Christmas.
25年前的這一週，我到莫斯科過聖誕節。
What was intended as a short visit to my family, who were living there at the time, ended up as a memorable trip in which I flew into the Soviet Union and a few days later flew out of the Russian Federation.
這原本是一次探望家人的短期旅程（他們當時住在莫斯科），結果卻成了一次難忘之旅，我來到蘇聯，而在我幾天後離開時，這個國家已變成了俄羅斯聯邦。
In the intervening time an empire — the first avowedly communist state on earth, a superpower in a bipolar world of cold war antagonism — had expired.
其間，一個帝國（世界上第一個誓言實現共產主義的國家，冷戰時期兩極世界中的一個超級大國）滅亡。
That the empire was decaying had been plain to see for years, even to those who were in charge and had tried in vain to reform the system.
此前多年裏，這個帝國明顯變得越來越腐朽，甚至對那些掌權並試圖改革體制（但未能奏效）的人而言也是如此。
Its final years were marked by increasing turmoil: the loss of territories, bungled coup attempts, growing economic hardship.
這個帝國的最後幾年以動盪加劇爲特點：領土淪喪、失敗的政變企圖、日益嚴重的經濟困境。
Yet the end itself seemed almost bathetic.
然而，其結局本身近乎平淡無奇。
On Christmas Day — by the western, not Orthodox, calendar — Mikhail Gorbachev, the eighth and final leader of the Soviet Union, resigned, declaring his office extinct.
聖誕節那天（根據西方日曆，而非東正教日曆），蘇聯的第八位也是最後一位領導人米哈伊爾.戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)辭職，宣告他的職位不再存在。
State television later showed pictures of the Kremlin as the Soviet red flag with its hammer and sickle was lowered to be replaced by the red, white and blue banner of Russia.
官方電視臺後來播放了克林姆林宮的照片，錘子和鐮刀圖案的蘇聯紅旗降下，取而代之的是俄羅斯的紅白藍三色國旗。
Diplomats gave dramatic accounts of hasty farewell visits to the Kremlin, where officials were busy clearing desks and consigning the old regime to the archives or the shredders.
外交官們對匆忙前往克林姆林宮道別的經歷作了戲劇性的描述，在克林姆林宮，官員們忙着清理辦公桌，將舊政權的文件歸檔或送入碎紙機。
But for the most part one sensed people were not fully aware of the drama of the situation.
但總體而言，人們感覺，俄羅斯人並不完全清楚局勢的戲劇化程度。
This was no great revolution, no storming of the palace.
這並非偉大革命，沒有出現衝擊宮殿的場面。
The upheaval was to come later as the economy stalled, the rouble plummeted and the old order collapsed.
劇變是後來纔出現的：經濟停滯、盧布匯率暴跌、舊秩序瓦解。
On the streets of Moscow, the development of the market economy played out in raw fashion.
在莫斯科街道上，市場經濟的發展赤裸裸地展現出來。
Makeshift kiosks selling everything from alcohol to household appliances popped up everywhere.
臨時售貨亭如雨後春筍般出現在各地，售賣從酒到家用電器的各種商品。
A more pitiful sight were the clusters of individuals, often elderly, selling bric-a-brac heirlooms, homemade produce or even pets — anything to make a little bit of money.
一種更可憐的景象是一羣人（往往是老人）售賣傳家寶、自種農產品甚至寵物，任何能換取一點點錢的東西。
Taxis were replaced by a proto-Uber system of kerbside deals struck with private citizens.
出租車被類似優步(Uber)、由私人運營並可以講價的路邊交易體系取代。
Behind closed doors the commanding heights of the economy were carved up and parcelled out to a new caste of well-connected robber barons.
在幕後，俄羅斯國民經濟的重要資產被瓜分，落到了背景深厚的新一代強盜大亨手裏。
I was reminded of those days by the recent interview with Mr Gorbachev in which he blamed the west for the downfall of the Soviet Union.
最近對戈爾巴喬夫的一次採訪讓我想起了那些日子，在採訪中，他批評西方是蘇聯解體的原因。
He likened this to a coup, saying he had acted as he did in order to prevent civil war.
他將其比作一場政變，他說，他所做的是爲了阻止內戰爆發。
The bitterness was still evident a quarter-century later.
25年後，這種耿耿於懷的情緒仍顯而易見。
For those of us not bearing the brunt of defeat and upheaval, the end of the Soviet Union almost seemed the logical finale of a remarkable run of events in which the post-1945 world was turned on its head: the fall of the Berlin Wall, the disintegration of the former Communist bloc, the move towards the end of apartheid.
對於未曾嚥下失敗和劇變苦果的我們而言，蘇聯解體幾乎像是一系列引人注目事件的合乎邏輯的大結局，其間1945年後的世界完全顛倒：柏林牆倒塌、共產黨國家陣營的瓦解、種族隔離政策行將終結。
What followed was a period of opening up, during which, in Europe at least, the direction of travel seemed to be all one way — towards liberalisation, globalisation.
接下來是一段開放時期，其間（至少在歐洲）發展方向似乎只有一個：自由化、全球化。
A moment of happiness, excitement and opportunity, especially for those lucky to be young.
這是一個洋溢着快樂、激動和機遇的時刻，特別是對於那些幸運的年輕人而言。
Now, to put it mildly, things look a little different — and not just in the accumulation of grey hairs.
如今，說得委婉點，情況看上去有點不同，而且不僅是大家都多了幾根白髮。
Brexit, Donald Trump’s US election victory and the rise in populism all point to a great backlash, the damping of those spirits unleashed a quarter of a century ago.
英國退歐、唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統以及民粹主義的崛起都指向一種嚴重反彈，25年前迸發出的精神被當頭澆了一瓢涼水。
Along the way, the glory of Russia appears to have been restored.
在此過程中，俄羅斯貌似再現輝煌。
Its president, Vladimir Putin, stands as one of the few victors in a year of breathtaking upheaval.
在發生了一個又一個驚心動魄的劇變的過去一年中，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)顯然是爲數不多的勝者之一。
From Aleppo to allegations of the hacking of the US election, the sense that Moscow has reclaimed the global power and relevance that it enjoyed during Soviet times is palpable.
從阿勒頗到利用黑客干擾美國大選的指控，人們明顯感覺到，俄羅斯已奪回其在蘇聯時代享受的全球實力和相關性。
Against that, Barack Obama, the US president, has been marginalised.
相比之下，美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)被邊緣化。
You might be forgiven for thinking that if any system is reeling from change, its stunned politicians struggling to keep up or busy clearing their desks, it is the western one.
你或許有理由認爲，如果說有一個制度在艱難應對變化，其政界人士在震驚之下竭力跟上新現實或者忙着收拾辦公桌，那便是西方的制度。
Perhaps.
或許吧。
Yet for all the confidence emanating from the Kremlin, the Russian system is not as secure as it seems.
然而，儘管克里姆林宮信心滿滿，但俄羅斯的體制並不像看上去那麼安穩。
Yes, its politics and economics may be a world away from the free-for-all of the 1990s but acute tensions remain, as does the dire need for reform.
沒錯，該國的政治和經濟可能與上世紀90年代的自由放任不可同日而語，但嚴峻的緊張仍然存在，改革的迫切需要仍然存在。
The foreign policy victories bring with them problems with no easy solution.
外交政策勝利本身也帶來了一些不容易解決的問題。
And if there is one thing we learnt 25 years ago it is that, for all the appearances of permanence, systems can change, sometimes with bone-shuddering speed.
如果說我們在25年前學到了什麼教訓的話，那就是，儘管表面看似永恆，但制度可能會發生變化，有時速度快得讓我們的骨頭顫抖。
