中國要在朝鮮和美國間做出艱難抉擇

Although Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last month described the U.S. and North Korea as two accelerating trains that are set for a "head-on collision," as of Wednesday, there are no indications that a U.S. military strike against Pyongyang is imminent.

President Donald Trump, however, has insisted he will no longer adhere to his predecessor's policy of "strategic patience" toward North Korea. This suggests the administration is willing to consider the possibility of military action to prevent the North from developing a nuclear tipped intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. mainland.

Amid this U.S. and North Korea standoff, it remains unclear whether China would respond with force to U.S. military action against the reclusive regime.

Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS organization in Honolulu, said he doubts China would take action: "The Chinese aren't going to war over a very ungrateful friend," given that the North Koreans have "insulted and undermined Chinese national interests over the last couple of years."
But some analysts say as long as any U.S. attack against North Korea aligns with China's interests, Beijing will accept the U.S. action.儘管中國外長王毅上個月形容美國和朝鮮是兩列不斷加速，做好了迎頭相撞準備的列車，但是截至星期三，沒有跡象表明美國針對平壤的軍事打擊迫在眉睫。

不過，川普總統堅稱，他不再遵循其前任制定的針對朝鮮的“戰略忍耐”政策，這表明川普政府願意考慮採取軍事行動，阻止朝鮮開發出攜帶核彈頭、能夠打擊美國本土的洲際彈道導彈。

面對美國和朝鮮的對峙局面，目前仍不清楚中國是否會以武力迴應美國對與世隔絕的朝鮮政權採取軍事行動。

設在夏威夷的美國智庫戰略與國際研究中心太平洋論壇主席拉爾夫·科薩表示，他對中國會採取行動表示懷疑。他說：“鑑於朝鮮在過去幾年裏羞辱並損害中國的國家利益，中國不會爲一個非常忘恩負義的朋友兩肋插刀。”

其他一些分析人士表示，只要美國打擊朝鮮符合中國利益，北京將接受美國的行動。