李嘉誠出其不意 爲何此時收購機隊

At last an answer to a question that has long puzzled bankers: what deals can you bring a billionaire with a penchant for infrastructure but who seemingly already has everything?

你能給一位對基礎設施有濃厚興趣、但似乎已擁有一切的億萬富豪帶來何種交易？這個問題困擾了銀行家們很長時間，現在，它終於有了答案。

Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Holdings revealed this week that it is in talks to buy a $5bn fleet of 100 aircraft being sold by Awas, a European lessor owned by Terra Firma, the private equity group.

本週，李嘉誠(Li Ka-shing)的長江實業(Cheung Kong Holdings)披露，該公司正在進行談判，擬收購Awas出售的一支價值50億美元的機隊，該機隊有100架飛機。Awas是私人股本集團泰豐資本(Terra Firma)擁有的一家歐洲租賃公司。

Discussions are at an early stage and other bidders are anticipated, but a successful deal would see aircraft leasing join an empire that already spans ports, telecoms, property, waste disposal, oil, water and electricity – plus pharmacies, supermarkets and other interests.

談判正處於初期階段，預計會有其他競購方加入。若長江實業收購成功，這個業務已然涵蓋港口、電信、地產、垃圾處理、石油、水務與電力、製藥、超市和其他權益的商業帝國中，將出現飛機租賃業務的身影。

Mr Li’s legendary investment skills have made him Asia’s richest man but the aircraft leasing market has already enjoyed a multiyear boom, which hardly fits a reputation for buying low and selling high.

李嘉誠憑藉傳奇般的投資本領成爲亞洲首富，但飛機租賃市場已經歷多年的繁榮，此時出手收購與李嘉誠“低買高賣”的盛名不符。

“A lot of smart money got in a long time ago,” says Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group, a US industry consultancy. “However, from an asset standpoint, it’s ideal. Buy the right aircraft and they are always in demand – and the assets are extremely mobile.”

“精明的投資者早就在這個市場大舉投資了，”美國工業諮詢公司蒂爾集團(Teal Group)分析師理查德•阿布拉菲亞(Richard Aboulafia)表示，“不過，從資產角度看，這是一筆理想的交易。買入合適的飛機，這些飛機始終有不小的需求——而且這些資產很容易移到別處。”

While Asia has one of the fastest-growing aircraft fleets as travel around the region expands, some analysts have queried the short-term profitability of leasing given the region’s huge order book for new aircraft. Should expansion fall short of target there is the risk of a glut of aircraft for hire.

隨着亞洲旅行人次不斷增長，該地區擁有了全球發展最快的機隊之一，但有些分析師懷疑，鑑於該地區新飛機訂單量巨大，飛機租賃業務的短期盈利可能會出問題。如果增長達不到預期，就存在可租用飛機供應過剩的風險。

Still, Mr Li is a long-term investor with a preference for infrastructure in countries with stable regulatory and common law systems. Adding a business with operations that can be relocated if one region experiences problems could complement that.

不過，李嘉誠是一位長線投資者，偏愛在擁有穩定監管制度和普通法系的國家投資基礎設施。增添一項若某地區出問題便可移到別處運營的業務，能對其主要業務構成補充。

Once a scale game where large fleets ensured steady returns, aircraft leasing has undergone a structural change since the financial crisis.

飛機租賃業務一度是由規模決定的業務，擁有大型機隊可確保穩定的回報，但自本次金融危機以來，這項業務已經歷了一次結構變革。

As fuel costs soared and financing dried up, troubled fleet owners including AIG and Royal Bank of Scotland were forced to divest. Success now tends to be based on having newer, fuel-efficient aircraft and access to cheap funding.

隨着燃油價格飛漲和融資枯竭，包括美國國際集團(AIG)和蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)在內，一些處境艱難的機隊所有者被迫剝離飛機租賃業務。如今，這項業務的成功通常取決於擁有更新、更省燃油的飛機，以及能夠融得廉價資金。

The aircraft being sold by Awas are two years old or less and Mr Li is unlikely to struggle to find finance in Hong Kong.

Awas所售飛機的機齡爲兩年或兩年以下，而李嘉誠在香港應該也不難找到資金。

His infrastructure assets are held through Cheung Kong Infrastructure, Hutchison Whampoa and CKH – the holding company through which the others are controlled.

李嘉誠的基礎設施資產是通過長江基建(Cheung Kong Infrastructure)、和記黃埔(Hutchison Whampoa)和長江實業持有的。長江實業是一家控股公司，李嘉誠通過它來控制長江基建與和記黃埔。

The three combined carry $20.5bn in net debt – 3.3 times their earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the past 12 months, according to S&P Capital IQ.

標普資本智商(S&P Capital IQ)的數據顯示，這三家公司的淨債務合計爲205億美元，是它們過去12個月息稅折舊及攤銷前盈利(EBITDA)的3.3倍。

While CKH is unrated, Hutchison and CKI both have stable, A-minus ratings from Standard & Poor’s.

標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)對和記黃埔和長江基建都給出了穩定的A-評級。長江實業未被評級。

Moreover, analysts say, Hong Kong’s currency peg with the US dollar could give Mr Li an edge over mainland Chinese lessors also thought to be interested in the Awas portfolio.

另外分析師表示，港元盯住美元的聯繫匯率制或許讓李嘉誠相對於中國內地的租賃公司擁有了一種優勢。中國內地的租賃公司也被認爲對Awas的資產組合感興趣。

“Everyone knows more or less what the most attractive assets are and what they’d like to invest in. That means if you can lower your cost of funds relative to others – and in US dollars – you will win more deals,” says Brendan McHenry, a senior risk analyst at Ascend, an industry consultancy.

“大家都或多或少知道最有吸引力的資產是什麼，知道自己願意投資什麼。這意味着，如果你的融資成本能低於別人——並且融來的資金爲美元——你就能贏得更多的交易，”工業諮詢公司Ascend的高級風險分析師布倫丹•麥克亨利(Brendan McHenry)表示。

Banks have been queueing up to offer aircraft financing, creating the most competitive environment for lenders since the crisis and a boom in would-be lessors.

銀行一直在排着隊等待提供飛機融資，由此造就了本次危機以來對銀行來說競爭最激烈的環境，並導致想從事飛機租賃業務的人大幅增加。

“The way someone looks at a deal is similar to looking at a bond – you have agreed cash flows with a counterparty of a given credit rating, then you have residual value to factor in,” says Mr McHenry.

麥克亨利表示：“人們看待交易的方式與看待債券相似——你與某個擁有特定信用評級的交易對手在現金流上達成一致，然後你要把殘值計算進來。”

CKH did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But Mr Li’s ability to hold for the long term has been ably demonstrated by his investments in European mobile networks, which are only now paying off after years of heavy investment. Aircraft leasing could well suit a patient dealmaker.

長江實業沒有立即迴應記者的置評請求。但李嘉誠有能力長期持有資產，這一點在他對歐洲移動網絡的投資中得到充分體現——在多年大舉投資後，這塊業務直到現在纔開始產生回報。飛機租賃業務可能很適合一位有耐心的交易人。