中國富豪從李嘉誠那裏學什麼

What can Chinese billionaires learn from Li Ka-shing ? Be careful of debt.

中國的億萬富豪們能從李嘉誠那裏學到什麼？答案是，要謹慎看待負債。

In a rare media interview last week, Asia's richest man said property markets in Hong Kong and China both look overheated, and stressed the importance of financial prudence. 'We need to be careful about debt, as if we are treading on thin ice,' Mr. Li told China's Southern Weekend. 'We have been buying less land in Hong Kong and China because prices are so high.'

這位亞洲首富在上週罕見地接受了國內媒體採訪，說香港和中國大陸的房地產市場都有過熱跡象，並強調了審慎理財的重要性。《南方週末》引用李嘉誠的話說：“我一生的原則是不會去賺最後一個銅板。”李嘉誠還表示，“過去兩三年我們買入的項目較少。香港地價高，已看到不健康的趨勢……內地的地價也飛漲，我們也無法成功投得土地……對於債務和貸款問題，非常小心處理，如履薄冰”。

Real estate has been a leading source of wealth creation in both Hong Kong and China, but Hong Kong developers are much more cautious with credit than their mainland peers. The total debt-to-asset ratio of Hong Kong-based developers―at around 30%―is half that of those on the mainland.

不管在香港還是中國大陸，富豪很多來自地產行業。在對待信貸的態度上，香港開發商比他們的內地同行要謹慎得多。總部位於香港的開發商的資產負債率大約在30%，這一水平是內地同類企業的一半。

In China, developers have been growing fast by buying land using borrowed money, building apartments quickly, and sometimes selling them even before they are completed. But the government's efforts to cool the housing market have slowed sales and price growth, putting that model at risk.

在中國大陸，開發商使用借貸資金大量購地，快速建設住房，常常還未完工便開始售房回籠資金。他們憑藉這一模式快速成長。然而政府的購房限令放慢了銷售額的增長速度，使這種快進快出、高槓杆率的經營模式面臨風險。

'Many Chinese companies are borrowing at very high rates and there is no way that they can make this kind of return,' said Antonio Huang, head of Asia structured trade and export finance at Banco Santander SA. As money gets tighter, some will inevitably go bust, he said.

西班牙國家銀行亞洲結構貿易與出口金融主任 Antonio Huang說，中國企業借貸的利率很高，而他們根本不可能達到這麼高的回報。隨着資金收緊，有些企業將不可避免地倒閉。

At Mr. Li's Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., which operates ports, telecommunications and retail businesses, liabilities were 43% of assets as of June 30. Net debt as a percentage of net total capital, the amount by which net assets exceed cash, stood at 20%. By comparison, Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co., controlled by China's richest man, Wang Jianlin, had a total debt-to-asset ratio of 76% as of June 30. Its net-debt-to-net-total capital ratio was 38%.

截至今年6月，李嘉誠旗下經營港口、電訊及零售的和記黃埔有限公司，其資產負債率爲43%，淨負債佔淨資本（總資產減現金）的百分比爲20%。 大陸公司則更激進。拿中國大陸首富王健林掌管的大連萬達商業地產股份有限公司來說，截至6月30日，其總資產負債率達76%，淨債務佔淨資本比爲38%。

Mr. Li's empire can afford to take on more debt. His ports, electricity and telecom businesses have relatively low operational risks, and are hardly affected by economic cycles, because people have to have utilities even in a downturn. The companies also generate a lot of cash, which helps pay down debt quickly.

李嘉誠的生意能負擔起更大規模的債務。港口、電力和電訊業務的經營風險較低，並且幾乎不受經濟週期的影響──經濟不好，電費和電話費還是要付的。這些業務可產生大量資金，能快速縮減負債規模。

Wanda's real-estate business is much more cyclical, because 83% of revenue comes from property sales rather than leasing retail space, which generates a steadier cash flow. The company had negative operating cash flow in the first six months of 2013, requiring it to tap external funding to meet its financial needs and obligations, according to the prospectus of a recent bond offering.

而萬達的房地產業務受經濟週期的影響要大得多，因爲其83%的收入來自房地產銷售，而非現金流更加穩定的租賃業務。根據萬達近期的債券募集說明書，去年上半年和今年上半年，公司的營運現金流均爲負值，需籌集外部資金以滿足其財務需求。

Despite tougher economic conditions at home, Wanda has gone on an overseas shopping spree. This year, it paid $1 billion to build London's tallest hotel, and another $1 billion to buy British yacht maker Sunseeker International. Wanda acquired AMC Entertainment Holdings, a U.S. cinema chain, last year for $2.6 billion. Wanda says its debt ratios aren't high compared with its Chinese peers, and it can sell investment properties to raise money if needed.

國內經濟放緩的大背景下，萬達加快了海外收購的步伐。今年，該公司投資10億美元在倫敦興建當地最高的酒店，並另支付10億美元併購英國聖汐遊艇公司(Sunseeker International)。去年，萬達斥資26億美元收購了美國影院連鎖企業AMC Entertainment Holdings。萬達指出，其債務比例與中國同行相比並不高，且如果需要的話，公司可以出售一些投資性地產來進行融資。

Sifting through Forbes's list of China's rich, one might notice a pattern of high debt ratios at property developers and conglomerates. Overall, China's corporate debt is high by international standards―127% of gross domestic product compared with an average of 70% in other emerging markets, according to Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA . The fortunes of Chinese billionaires are closely tied to their companies, because most are first-generation entrepreneurs with wealth bound up in the businesses they founded.

上了《福布斯》中國富豪榜的很多房地產開發商和綜合性集團都採取了類似的高負債率經營模式。據西班牙對外銀行有限公司(BBVA)稱，如果以國際水平爲標杆進行衡量，中國企業總體上負債水平很高，債務佔國內生產總值(GDP)的127%，而其它新興市場的均值僅爲70%。高槓杆對中國富豪們的私人財富帶來較大風險，因爲他們的大部分財富依然投資於其公司當中。

To mitigate the risks, Chinese billionaires could borrow from the Li Ka-shing playbook. Mr. Li is also on an overseas buying binge, but he has managed to keep debt ratios low. Since the 2008 financial crisis, Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. has spent more than $22 billion on overseas acquisitions, according to Dealogic. But as Mr. Li invests in European utilities, he is considering an initial public offering of his global retail business, A.S. Watson & Co., next year, which some analysts have valued at more than $20 billion.

要降低風險，中國的億萬富翁應當從李嘉誠那裏取經。李嘉誠也大舉進行了海外收購，但他將負債率保持在較低水平上。根據數據公司Dealogic，自2008年金融危機以來，長江基建集團有限公司已投入超過220億美元用於海外收購。在李嘉誠投資於歐洲設施的同時，他正準備讓旗下全球零售企業屈臣氏上市，有分析師估計，籌資金額將高達200億美元。

Not all bets by Mr. Li, often referred to as 'Superman' in Hong Kong because of his business prowess, have done well. Hutchison lost $20 billion over seven years because of investments in a high-speed mobile-phone network. But it has been able to absorb those losses because the conglomerate is diversified and debt levels are low. As more Chinese entrepreneurs join the world's billionaire club―China now ranks only behind the U.S. in the number of dollar billionaires, according to Forbes―they should think about protecting their wealth more than growing it aggressively.

因非凡的商業能力而被香港人尊稱“超人”的李嘉誠，其實也並非在商海中一帆風順。和記黃埔曾因投資於高速移動電話網絡而經歷了長達七年、總計200億美元的虧損。但因爲投資項目的多樣化和低債務水平，公司經受住了這一考驗。隨着越來越多的中國企業家加入到世界億萬富翁俱樂部中（根據《福布斯》，中國億萬美元富翁總數現已僅次於美國），他們應當更多地思考如何保護他們的財富，而不應一味快速擴張。