南海問題尖銳爭端 中美皆應保持冷靜

In the past 18 months, China has been enthusiastically dredging sand from the bottom of the South China Sea and building artificial islands in disputed waters. During that period, according to Ashton Carter, US secretary of defence, Beijing has reclaimed more land than all the other claimants put together over the history of the dispute. True, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan have all built islands to bolster their territorial claims. Yet Beijing’s actions dwarf those efforts in both speed and scale.

過去18個月，中國一直在南中國海爭議水域熱火朝天地抽沙建造人工島。根據美國國防部長阿什頓•卡特(Ashton Carter)的說法，這一時期中國填海造地的面積，超過了其他所有聲索國自有爭端以來造島面積的總和。越南、菲律賓、馬來西亞和臺灣確實都曾人工造島，以支持它們的領土主張。然而，與中國政府的行爲相比，它們的舉動不論在速度上還是規模上都相形見絀。

The exercise is being carried out in a state of secrecy. No one knows quite what China is up to nor what it hopes to achieve. The lack of transparency is unnerving given China’s territorial ambitions. With little or no basis in international law, it lays claim to virtually all of the South China Sea, asserting ownership of everything within a nine-dash line hugging the coast of the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. One theory is that Beijing wants to build a runway in order to enforce an air defence identification zone over the entire sea. Beijing should desist from such an unnecessary provocation.

中國政府的這一舉動，是在一種祕密狀態下進行的。沒有人確切知道中國計劃做什麼，希望達成什麼目的。考慮到中國的領土野心，這種缺乏透明度的狀況令人緊張。中國聲稱對緊貼菲律賓、馬來西亞和越南海岸線的所謂“九段線”內的所有水域擁有主權，這塊水域實質上涵蓋了幾乎整個南中國海。這一聲明基本上沒有或者說完全沒有國際法依據。有一種看法認爲，中國政府想要修建一座簡易機場，以便在整個南中國海上空劃設一個防空識別區。中國政府應該停止這種沒有必要的挑釁行爲。

In the run-up to this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, a regional security summit held in Singapore, Washington has begun to push back. This month, it flew a P-8 Poseidon aircraft — with a CNN television crew on board — over one of China’s new islands, eliciting a sharp warning from the Chinese navy. The US says it has detected artillery pieces and has reserved the right to sail warships within 12 miles of the newly created islands. This weekend, Mr Carter made it clear the US would “fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” and said China’s act of “turning an underwater rock into an airfield” in no way conferred sovereign rights. Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo responded that Beijing’s actions were “justified, legitimate and reasonable” and were intended to provide “international public services”. His words will bring little comfort to the Asian nations that feel threatened by China’s behaviour.

週末在新加坡舉行地區防務峯會“香格里拉對話”(Shangri-La Dialogue)之前，美國政府就已經對中國這一行爲施加了壓力。本月美國曾派出一架P-8A海神反潛機(P-8 Poseidon)，載着美國有線新聞網(CNN)的一個電視節目攝製組，飛越中國一個新造島嶼的上空，結果到中國海軍嚴厲警告。美國表示，已經偵測到大炮等軍事設施，並保留派遣軍艦航行至新造島嶼12海里以內的權利。週末，卡特更明確地表示，美國將“在國際法許可的範圍內飛行、航行及執行任務”，並表示中國“將水下礁石變成機場”的行爲根本不能使其獲得主權。中國海軍上將孫建國則迴應稱，中國政府的舉措“合理、合法、合情”，目的是提供“國際公益服務”。對於那些因中國所爲而感覺受到威脅的亞洲國家來說，孫建國的說法不會起到什麼安慰作用。

In the short term, both China and the US need to ratchet down tensions. All nations, including China, should give thought to Mr Carter’s call for a moratorium on new island construction. The atmosphere would then be more conducive to conclude a code of conduct that could prevent accidents and unnecessary provocations in future. China should also spell out exactly what its nine-dash claim means and explain what it hopes to achieve through island construction. It should reiterate its commitment to freedom of navigation. For its part, the US should stop grandstanding via the television cameras and should think hard before it sails warships past Chinese-built islands. The danger is that Beijing will feel obliged to respond in kind.

從短期來看，中美都需要做出緩和緊張局勢的動作。各方應考慮卡特關於暫停建設新島嶼的呼籲，包括中國在內。屆時氣氛將更有利於締結一項行爲準則，以在未來防止突發事件和不必要的挑釁。中國也應闡明九段線聲明的含義，並解釋中方希望通過島嶼建設達成什麼目的。中國還應重申對航行自由原則的承諾。美國則應停止在電視上譁衆取寵，對於派軍艦駛近中國新建島嶼的事情應三思。美方這類舉動可能招致危險，因爲北京方面將感到有必要作出迴應。

In the longer run, there is a more fundamental issue at stake. China’s actions are nothing less than the beginning of a challenge to US dominance in the Pacific. Given its economic might, that is hardly surprising, nor need it be threatening. Most countries in the region want to strike a balance between the ambitions of a rising China and the comfort of US presence. At the moment, the two countries are on a slow, but unmistakable collision course. The trick will be to bind both China and the US into a wider, regional security framework that establishes rules of the road — and of the sea and the air. Such rules will have to have widespread support, including from the two most powerful Pacific powers themselves. The status quo is probably unsustainable. Yet it will not be in the region’s interests simply to replace the Pax Americana with a Pax Sinica.

從長遠來看，這件事關係到一個更根本的問題。中國的行動僅僅是挑戰美國在太平洋主導地位的開端。鑑於中國的經濟實力，這點不足爲奇，也不需要認爲是個威脅。該地區的大多數國家都希望，在崛起的中國的雄心與美國存在的安慰感之間能夠達到一種平衡。中美兩國目前正處於緩慢的、但明顯會衝突的路線上。解決之道是將中美兩國捆綁到一個更廣泛的地區安全架構中，制定海陸空的國際交通規則。這些規則必須得到廣泛支持，包括兩個最強大的太平洋大國本身。現狀可能是無法持續的。然而以“中國治下的和平”(Pax Sinica)簡單地取代“美國治下的和平”(Pax Americana)並不符合地區利益。