世界沒有能免遭恐襲的避風港
Paris might have been Berlin, London or Rome. Europe has something of the feel of a continent under siege. On its eastern edge, governments have been overwhelmed by the numbers arriving from Syria, Afghanistan and many troubled points beyond. The Paris atrocity, the murderous work of the self-styled Islamic State, has seen Syria’s brutal civil war transferred almost casually to the heart of one of Europe’s great cities.
受到攻擊的城市原本可能不是巴黎，而是柏林、倫敦或羅馬。歐洲有一種整體遭到圍攻的感覺。在歐洲東面，來自敘利亞、阿富汗和許多其他受難地區的難民的巨大數量，令各國政府不堪重負。從發生在巴黎的暴行——即自封的“伊斯蘭國”(Islamic State)所犯下的殺人事件——可以看到，敘利亞的殘酷內戰幾乎在不經意間，就已轉移至歐洲最大城市之一的核心地帶。
The refugees making their way across the Balkans to Germany and Sweden are running from violent sectarian chaos. The murders in Paris show once again how easily this violence can reach deep into the European continent. After this year’s attacks on Charlie Hebdo and a Jewish supermarket perhaps the latest crimes should not have been a surprise. The sense of shock this weekend is no less for that.
而穿過巴爾幹半島前往德國和瑞典的難民，在逃離充滿暴力的派系紛爭。巴黎發生的多起殺戮，再次證明這種暴力向歐洲大陸縱深擴散有多麼容易。在今年《查理週刊》(Charlie Hebdo)和一家猶太超市遭遇襲擊後，對於這場最新的罪行，人們不應感到意外。然而上週末所造成的衝擊絲毫不會因此減少。
Most likely, there will be more such moments. The hard fact is that we live in an age of systemic disorder. As we might have learned from New York, Madrid, London and Mumbai there is no hiding place from upheavals elsewhere. In much of the Middle East the state system bequeathed a century ago by Europe’s departing imperial powers has broken down. In this part of the world, terrible shootings and bombings such as those in Paris have become almost a commonplace. Globalisation, identity politics and technology have provided the transmission mechanisms to spread the terror across borders and continents.
最有可能的情形是，還會出現更多這樣的時刻。一個讓人不得不承認的事實是，我們生活在一個系統性動盪的時代。正如我們可能已經從紐約、馬德里、倫敦和孟買的恐怖事件中學到的，在其他地方也沒有能夠免受動盪影響的避風港。在中東大部分地區，一個世紀以前歐洲帝國勢力離開時留下的政府體制已分崩離析。在世界的這個角落，類似巴黎恐怖襲擊那樣的可怕槍擊案和爆炸事件，幾乎已成爲一種常見現象。全球化、身份政治以及技術進步，已經爲恐怖的跨境和跨洲擴散提供了傳播機制。
French president Hollande called the murders an act of war. They were certainly that. But this is not a war as we usually would understand it. Isis has seized territory in Iraq and Syria, but its potency lies in the fact that it is as much an idea and ideology as organisation. In Europe it wants to provoke an anti-Islamic backlash that will feed it with more recruits from indigenous Muslims. These latest murders, Isis said, were retribution for French bombing of their fighters in Iraq and Syria. That was part of it, but no one in Europe should imagine they could exempt themselves by washing their hands of the Middle East.
法國總統弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)稱這輪殺戮是一種戰爭行爲。它們無疑是戰爭行爲，不過這不是我們通常理解的戰爭。ISIS在伊拉克和敘利亞控制了大片土地，然而它的威力卻依賴於這樣一個事實：它既是一個組織，也是一種思想和意識形態。在歐洲，它希望激發一種反伊斯蘭的反彈，這會把更多歐洲本土穆斯林變成它的新成員。ISIS表示，最新這輪殺戮，是法國轟炸伊拉克和敘利亞的ISIS戰士所應得的報應。這確實是其中部分原因。不過，歐洲不應該有人以爲，通過置身中東事外，他們就可以讓自己免遭恐怖襲擊。
The immediate demand is for answers and action. Could the plot have been uncovered; did the intelligence services miss something; how important was the complicity of French citizens mentioned by Mr Hollande? At least one of the killers carried a Syrian passport. Were others radicalised in France before being trained for this atrocity in the jihadis war against Syria’s Bashar Al Assad? Is it time for France to reset the balance between personal liberty and collective security? What about the promises after Charlie Hebdo to offer a better future to France’s Muslims?
眼下，我們亟待回答多個問題並行動起來。這次恐怖襲擊的陰謀原本有可能被發現麼？情報機構是不是漏掉了什麼？奧朗德提到的法國公民的合謀有多重要？在這些殺手中，至少有一人持有敘利亞護照。其他人是在法國轉向激進主義，再在針對敘利亞巴沙爾阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)的聖戰中，爲這次暴行受訓的麼？法國是不是該重新尋找個人自由與集體安全之間的平衡點了？對於在《查理週刊》事件後提出的爲法國穆斯林提供更美好未來的承諾，人們該如何對待？
One impulse — sensibly forsworn by Mr Hollande — will say it is time for Europe to throw up the barricades. Leave it to regional powers to fight it out. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, after all, have given life to Isis by incorporating the Syrian civil war into the struggle for dominance between Sunnis and Shia. Let them suffer the consequences. As for Russia, well Vladimir Putin has already paid for its intervention with the downing over Egypt — almost certainly the work of an Isis-affiliated group — of a Russian civilian jet carrying more than 200 tourists.
一種衝動的觀點認爲（奧朗德已經明智地誓言放棄這種觀點），歐洲是時候建立起屏障了。把這個問題留給該地區的大國去解決。畢竟是沙特阿拉伯、土耳其以及伊朗把敘利亞內戰納入遜尼派和什葉派的統治權之爭，才催生了ISIS。讓他們自食苦果吧。至於俄羅斯，弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)已經爲其介入付出了代價，俄羅斯一架載有逾200名遊客的客機在埃及墜落——幾乎可以肯定這是ISIS附屬組織的傑作。
In this respect, the Paris attacks are a gift to Europe’s xenophobes. The risk is that the far right, already prospering by peddling anti-Muslim identity politics, succeed in drawing false connections between migration and terror. The us-versus-them politics of parties such France’s far-right National Front makes the scantiest of distinction between violent jihadis and peaceful Islam. In this twisted mindset every Muslim refugee is a potential terrorist. What should frighten Europeans is that the National Front’s Marine Le Pen is seen as a credible candidate in the contest for the French presidency in 2017.
從這個角度看，巴黎恐襲是歐洲排外情緒的產物。危險在於，已經靠兜售反穆斯林的身份政治而壯大的極右翼勢力，成功地將移民和恐怖主義建立了錯誤關聯。諸如法國極右翼政黨國民陣線(National Front)等黨派“我們是我們、他們是他們”的政治主張，對暴力的聖戰分子與平和的伊斯蘭教徒完全不加區分。在這種扭曲的心態下，每一個穆斯林難民都成了潛在的恐怖分子。國民陣線的馬琳勒龐(Marine Le Pen)竟然被視爲法國2017年總統大選的可靠候選人，這才應該令歐洲人感到恐懼。
An opposing response will say that it is time to “double-up”. By permitting Isis to hold territory, the west has given it the opportunity to turn a local organisation into a global ideology. Isis can now claim the allegiance of tens of thousands of so-called foreign fighters — many if not most of them from Europe — and affiliates reaching across the Middle East and Maghreb to the Sahel. I was at a security conference in Beijing last month. Top of the agenda? The boost provided by Isis to Islamist extremism across Asia.
一種相反的觀點認爲，是時候“雙倍加倉”了。允許ISIS保持領地，西方賦予了該組織從地方組織轉變爲全球性意識形態的機會。ISIS如今可以宣稱有成千上萬所謂的外國戰士對其效忠，而這些外國戰士中，來自歐洲的戰士就算不是佔大多數，也着實不少，同時其附屬組織已觸及整個中東、馬格里布（Maghreb，馬格里布是歷史上對北非地區阿爾及利亞、摩洛哥和突尼斯的統稱——譯者注）到薩赫勒（Sahel，非洲撒哈拉沙漠和蘇丹草原地區之間一條橫跨多個國家的地帶——譯者注）地區。我上個月在北京參加了一次安全會議。會議的首要議題？就是ISIS對遍佈亞洲的伊斯蘭極端主義的推動。
The case for a more ruthless assault on Isis is a powerful one. Destruction of its strongholds in Iraq and Syria will not wipe it out — just as al-Qaeda survived the US march into Afghanistan — but you have to start somewhere. This time, though, the west must remember what it forgot after the attacks of September 11 2001. There are no military solutions.
支持對ISIS予以更無情打擊的理由很充分。摧毀其在伊拉克和敘利亞的強大據點並不會將其消滅——就像基地組織(al-Qaeda)在美國進軍阿富汗後仍然得以存活一樣——但是你必須從某處下手。不過，這一次西方國家必須記住其在2001年9月11日恐怖襲擊後所忘記的事情。軍事手段解決不了問題。
Ending the Syrian civil war, and thus depriving Isis of its organising mission, requires a political agreement. Most probably it will be an ugly one. Almost certainly, it will require western leaders to retreat from past rhetoric. But Europeans will feel safer in their cities only when there is a settlement of sorts in Iraq and Syria.
結束敘利亞內戰、並以此使ISIS失去組織使命，需要一份政治協議。只不過這極可能是一份難堪的協議。幾乎可以肯定，這將需要西方領導人放棄過去的言論。但是，只有當伊拉克和敘利亞的問題得以解決時，歐洲人才會在自己的城市裏感覺更安全。
