供應過剩將導致油價繼續下挫

The oil market “could drown in oversupply” as a rise in Iranian output offsets production cuts elsewhere, threatening a further price collapse, the world’s leading Energy forecaster has said.

全球頂尖能源預測機構國際能源署(IEA)表示，石油市場“可能會被供應過剩淹沒”，伊朗石油產量的增加將抵消掉其他國家減產的影響，這可能導致油價進一步下挫。

In a stark assessment of the challenges facing the global oil industry, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday of an overhang of at least 1m barrels a day for a third consecutive year in 2016.

週二，IEA在這份對全球石油業面臨的挑戰進行的嚴峻評估中警告稱，今年供應過剩的規模將連續第三年達到每日至少100萬桶。

Production outside the Opec cartel would decline this year, the IEA said. But that would be offset by slower demand growth and higher production from Iran now that sanctions linked to its nuclear programme had been lifted.

IEA表示，石油輸出國組織（Opec，簡稱：歐佩克）以外國家的石油產量今年將下滑。但石油需求放緩以及伊朗產量增加將抵消掉這一下滑。伊朗受到的與核計劃有關的制裁現在已被解除。

“Unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,” the wealthy nations’ energy watchdog said in its closely watched monthly oil market report.

IEA在其受到密切關注的月度石油市場報告中表示：“除非情況發生變化，否則石油市場可能會被供應過剩淹沒。”

It said if Iran — a powerful member of the producers’ group — moved quickly to offer its oil under attractive terms and its Opec peers such as Saudi Arabia refused to “stay on the sidelines”, prices could lurch lower.

IEA表示，如果伊朗（歐佩克的強大成員國之一）迅速採取行動、以有吸引力的條件供應石油，而沙特等其他歐佩克成員國拒絕“離場觀望”，油價可能會繼續下跌。

Oil prices have tumbled almost 75 per cent in 18 months as the largest producer countries have refused to give ground, with supplies and inventories ballooning to near-record levels.

油價已在18個月內下跌了近75%，原因是大型產油國拒絕讓出市場份額，石油供應和庫存急劇增加、逼近歷史高點。

Global oil stocks rose by 1bn barrels in 2015 from the year before and the IEA has forecast a further increase of 285m barrels over the course of 2016.

2015年的全球石油庫存較上一年的水平增加了10億桶。IEA預測，2016年全年，石油庫存還會再增加2.85億桶。

Overall the IEA expects demand growth to moderate from almost 1.7m b/d in 2015 to 1.2m b/d this year.

IEA預測，總體而言，石油需求增幅將從2015年的每日近170萬桶降至今年的每日120萬桶。