石油將長期保持供應過剩 Clean energy growth set to prolong crude glut

The oil market will remain oversupplied until the end of the decade as the push for cleaner fuels and greater efficiency offsets lower prices, the world’s leading Energy forecaster has said.

全球頂尖能源預測機構國際能源署(IEA)表示，推動人們使用更清潔燃料以及提高能效的舉措，抵消了油價降低對石油消費的提振作用，因此石油市場供應過剩的局面將持續到2010年代末。

In its annual outlook the International Energy Agency said oil demand would rise less than 1 per cent a year until 2020, not fast enough to mop up a glut that has driven prices to multi lows.

在年度《世界能源展望》中，國際能源署表示，直到2020年，石油需求年增速將一直低於1%，這樣的速度不足以消除導致油價跌至多年低點的石油供應過剩。

The slowdown in oil demand growth follows a near 15-year surge in consumption, driven by the rapid industrialisation of China and other emerging market economies.

在這輪石油需求增長放緩之前，受中國及其他新興市場經濟體快速工業化的帶動，石油消費量曾出現將近15年的大幅增長。

But Beijing is moving away from dirtier fuels to less energy-intensive growth as it heads towards a more consumer-led economy. “We are approaching the end of the single largest demand growth story in energy history,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, told the Financial Times.

不過，在中國經濟向消費拉動型轉型之際，中國正在減少對污染較大的燃料的使用，轉向能源密集度較低的增長模式。國際能源署署長法提赫比羅爾(Fatih Birol)向英國《金融時報》表示：“能源史上規模最大的一輪需求增長正接近尾聲。”

“Demand is not as strong as we have seen in the past as a result of efficiency [and climate] policies [globally],” he added, saying the growth in renewables would further restrict demand for oil.

他補充說：“受（全球）關於提高能效（和氣候問題）的政策影響，需求不像我們過去看到的那樣強勁。”他還表示可再生能源的增長會進一步抑制石油的需求。

The IEA does not expect crude oil to reach $80 a barrel until 2020 under its “central scenario”, as excess supplies are slowly soaked up. After 2020 demand growth was expected to grind almost to a halt, increasing just 5 per cent over the following 20 years, the IEA said.

國際能源署預測了多種可能情景，按照其“核心情景”，原油供應過剩將被緩慢消化，原油價格要到2020年纔會漲到每桶80美元。國際能源署表示，2020年後，需求增長預計會幾近停頓，在之後的20年裏將僅增長5%。

Demand is not forecast to hit 103.5m b/d until 2040 — from the current 94.5m b/d. Growth would be “moderated” by a return to higher prices, efforts to phase out subsidies and the switch to alternative fuels — especially in developed markets, the report added. “Collectively, the US, EU and Japan will see their oil demand drop by about 10m b/d by 2040.”

預計直到2040年，石油需求才會從現在的每天9450萬桶增長到每天1.035億桶。該報告補充說，油價回升、各國逐步取消補貼、以及各國（尤其是發達國家）改用替代燃料，將“平抑”需求的增長。“到2040年時，歐美和日本的石油日需求將合計下滑約1000萬桶。”

Pledges made in advance of the Paris climate talks in December, Mr Birol said, would be a further catalyst for moves towards a low-carbon, more energy-efficient future.

比羅爾表示，12月份巴黎氣候會議前各國做出的承諾，將進一步推動各項舉措的出臺，這些舉措將推動人類走向低碳、高能效的未來。

Saudi officials warned this week that investment cuts and oil prices at about $50 for a prolonged time would have a “substantial and long-lasting” impact on supplies — a case the IEA also made in an alternative “scenario”.

沙特官員本週警告說，投資的削減及油價長期處於每桶50美元左右，將對石油供應產生“巨大而持久”的影響——國際能源署在另一種“情景”中也闡述了這一可能性。

Forecasting long-term oil prices is difficult, however. Two years ago the IEA said that although the rise of US shale oil would “shake” the energy world, a period of oversupply did not await.

不過，預測油價的長期變化十分困難。兩年前，國際能源署曾表示，儘管美國頁岩油的崛起會“震撼”能源界，但世界並不會在一段時期內面臨石油供應過剩。