特朗普現象突顯民主的迷失 Trump's rise shows how democratic processes can lose their way
While comparisons between Donald Trump and Mussolini or Hitler are overwrought, Mr Trump’s rise does illustrate how democratic processes can lose their way and turn dangerously toxic when there is intense economic frustration and widespread apprehension about the future. This is especially the case when some previously respected leaders scurry to make peace in a new order — yes, Chris Christie, I mean you.
儘管把唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)與墨索里尼(Mussolini)和希特勒(Hitler)進行對比是有些過度緊張了，但是特朗普的崛起確實顯示了，在面臨經濟挫敗和人們普遍畏懼未來的情況下，民主進程會失去方向併產生危險的毒性。特別是在一些之前受人尊敬的領袖在新秩序下匆匆“倒戈”的情況下——沒錯，克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)，我說的就是你。
The possible election of Mr Trump as president is the greatest present threat to the prosperity and security of the US. I have had a strong point of view on each of the last 10 presidential elections, but never before had I feared that what I regarded as the wrong outcome would in the long sweep of history risk grave damage to the American project.
特朗普當選美國總統的可能，是美國的繁榮和安全目前面臨的最大威脅。在過去10屆總統大選中，我每次都有強烈觀點，但是從來沒有像現在這樣擔心，在歷史長河的層面上，我眼中的錯誤結果可能會對整個美國“項目”造成嚴重損害。
The problem is not with Mr Trump’s policies, though they are wacky in the few areas where they are not indecipherable. It is that he is running as modern-day man on horseback — demagogically offering the power of his personality as a magic solution to all problems — and making clear that he is prepared to run roughshod over anything or anyone who stands in his way.
問題不在於特朗普的政策，儘管即使在極少數領域他的政策並非完全不知所云，那些政策也是奇葩的。真正的問題是，他就像是現代的牛仔——以蠱惑人心的方式，把他的張揚個性吹噓爲解決一切問題的神奇妙方——還明確表明，他會碾平一切妨礙他的人和事。
Mr Trump has already flirted with the Ku Klux Klan and disparaged and demeaned the female half of our population. He vowed to kill the families of terrorists, use extreme forms of torture and forbid Muslims from coming into our country. Time and again, he has claimed he will crush those who stand in his way; his promised rewrite of libel laws, permitting the punishment of The New York Times and Washington Post for articles he does not like, will allow him to make good on this threat.
特朗普已然和3K黨(Ku Klux Klan)關係曖昧，並且蔑視及貶低女性。他誓言要追殺恐怖分子的家人，採用極端的酷刑方式，並且禁止穆斯林進入我國。特朗普一再聲稱，他將碾碎那些妨礙他的人；他對於重寫誹謗法律的承諾——允許他因爲《紐約時報》(New York Times)和《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)發表了他不喜歡的文章而懲罰它們——可以讓他兌現這一威脅。
Lyndon Johnson’s celebrated biographer, Robert Caro, has written that while “power doesn’t always corrupt … [it] always reveals.” What will a demagogue with a platform like Mr Trump’s who ascends to the presidency do with control over the National Security Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation and Internal Revenue Service? What commitment will he manifest to the rule of law? Already he has proposed that protesters at his rallies “should have been roughed up”.
林德•約翰遜(Lyndon Johnson)的一流傳記作者羅伯特•卡羅(Robert Caro)曾寫道，儘管“權力並不總是帶來腐敗……但（它）總能暴露本質。”當一個煽動者擁有了與可能成爲美國總統的特朗普一樣的平臺，控制了國家安全局(NSA)、聯邦調查局(FBI)和國稅局(IRS)，他會做什麼？他會對法治展示什麼承諾？特朗普已經提議，在他的集會上出現的抗議者“應該吃點苦頭”。
Nothing in the way Richard Nixon campaigned gave him a mandate for keeping an enemies list or engaging in dirty tricks. If he is elected, Donald Trump may think he has such a mandate. What is the basis for doubting that it will be used?
當年理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)在競選時也沒有要求獲得把政敵列入黑名單或採用骯髒伎倆的授權。如果特朗普當選，他可能會認爲自己有這樣的授權。有什麼理由懷疑他不會動用這種授權嗎？
To be sure there are precedents for Mr Trump in American politics — such as Joe McCarthy, George Wallace, and Huey Long. Just as Mr Trump does, each mined the all-too rich veins of prejudice, paranoia and excess populism that lie beneath American soil. Yet even at their highest points of popularity, none of these figures looked like plausible future presidents. One shudders to think what President Huey Long would have done during the Depression, what President Joe McCarthy would have done at the height of the cold war, or what President George Wallace would have done at the end of the turbulent 1960s.
沒錯，美國政治舞臺上出現過特朗普這樣的先例——比如約瑟夫•麥卡錫(Joseph McCarthy)、喬治•華萊士(George Wallace)和休伊•朗(Huey Long)。就像特朗普一樣，他們都挖掘了美國社會表層之下隱藏的偏見、偏執和過度民粹。不過，即使在人氣最高的時候，他們中也沒有任何一人看起來有成爲美國總統的可能。即使是想一下休伊•朗總統在“大蕭條”時的可能做法、約瑟夫•麥卡錫總統會在冷戰時可能推行的政策、或者喬治•華萊士會在動盪的1960年代末可能採取的舉動，都會讓人不寒而慄。
My Harvard colleague, Niall Ferguson, suggests that William Jennings Bryan is the right precursor for Mr Trump. This comparison seems unfair to Bryan who was a progressive populist but not a thug, as evidenced by the fact that he ended up as Secretary of State in the Wilson Administration. Trump’s election would threaten our democracy. I doubt that democracy would have been threatened if Bryan had beaten McKinley.
我在哈佛大學(Harvard)的同事尼爾•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)提出，威廉•詹寧斯•布賴恩(William Jennings Bryan)是特朗普的前身。對於布賴恩來說，這樣的對比似乎是不公平的——他是一位進步的民粹主義者，但不是暴徒，他最終成爲威爾遜政府的國務卿，就說明了這一點。特朗普當選將威脅我們的民主體制。當年如果布賴恩打敗了威廉•麥金萊(William McKinley)，民主會受到威脅嗎？我對此感到懷疑。
Robert Kagan and others have suggested that Trump is the culmination of trends under way for decades in the Republican party. I am no friend of the Tea Party or of the way in which Congress has obstructed President Barack Obama. But the suggestion that Mr Trump is on the same continuum as George W. Bush or even the Republican congressional leadership seems to me to be quite unfair.
羅伯特•卡根(Robert Kagan)等人認爲，特朗普是共和黨數十年來種種趨勢的巔峯。我對茶黨(Tea Party)沒什麼好感，也不喜歡國會阻撓巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統的方式。但是，一些人認爲特朗普是喬治•W•布什(George W. Bush)、甚至共和黨國會領袖的延續，我認爲這種看法似乎相當不公平。
Even the possibility of Trump becoming president is dangerous. The economy is already growing at a sub-2 per cent rate in substantial part because of a lack of confidence in a weak world economy. A growing sense that a protectionist demagogue could soon become president of the United States would surely introduce great uncertainty at home and abroad. The resulting increase in risk premiums might well be enough to tip a fragile US economy into recession. A concern that the US was becoming protectionists and isolationist could easily undermine confidence in many emerging markets and set off a financial crisis.
即使是特朗普成爲總統的可能性都是非常危險的。美國經濟增速已經低於2%（在很大程度上是由於人們對低迷的世界經濟缺乏信心）。如果人們日益認爲煽動保護主義的人有望很快成爲美國總統，這無疑會在國內外引發極大的不確定性。由此帶來的風險溢價很可能足以將脆弱的美國經濟推入衰退。對於美國將付諸保護主義和孤立主義的擔憂，很容易損害人們對很多新興市場的信心，觸發一場金融危機。
The geopolitical consequences of Donald Trump’s rise may be even more serious. The rest of the world is incredulous and appalled by the possibility of a Trump presidency and has started quietly rethinking its approach to the US accordingly. The US and China are struggling over influence in Asia. It is hard to imagine something better for China than the US moving to adopt a policy of “truculent isolationism”. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a central element in our rebalancing toward Asia, could collapse. Japan would have to take self-defence, rather than reliance on American security guarantees, more seriously. And others in Asia would inevitably tilt from a more erratic America towards a relatively steady China.
特朗普當選總統帶來的地緣政治後果可能更爲嚴重。世界其他地區對特朗普成爲美國總統的可能性感到難以置信並且不寒而慄，並已據此開始悄悄反思其對美國的姿態。美國和中國正在爭奪在亞洲的影響力。對於中國來說，很難想到有什麼比美國轉而採取“好鬥的孤立主義”政策更好的局面了。美國重返亞洲的核心元素《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)可能就此坍塌。日本可能不得不更認真地考慮自衛措施，而不再依賴於美國提供的安全保障。亞洲其他國家會不可避免地由更爲反覆無常的美國轉向相對穩定的中國。
Mr Trump’s rise goes beyond his demagogic appeal. It is a reflection of the political psychology of frustration – people see him as responding to their fears about the modern world order, an outsider fighting for those who have been left behind. If we are to move past Trumpism, it will be essential to develop convincing responses to economic slowdown.
特朗普的崛起不僅是因爲他蠱惑人心的感染力。它反映出政治上的沮喪心理——人們認爲他迴應了他們對當今世界秩序的恐懼，認爲他是一個爲那些被拋棄的人出頭的局外人。如果我們要超越“特朗普主義”，就必須找出應對經濟放緩的可行辦法。
The US has always been governed by the authority of ideas, rather than the idea of authority. Nothing is more important than to be clear to all Americans that the tradition of vigorous political debate and compromise will continue. The sooner Donald Trump is relegated to the margins of our national life, the better off we and the world will be.
美國一貫受到思想權威（而非權威思想）的治理。相比讓所有美國人明白活躍政治辯論和妥協的傳統將會繼續，沒什麼其他事情更重要。唐納德•特朗普越快被排擠到國家生活舞臺的邊緣，對美國乃至整個世界就越有利。
