對特朗普說不 Trump's well earned trouncing in Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s electorate deserves a vote of thanks. It is too early to declare that the Republican tide has turned — or that Donald Trump’s weaknesses are finally being exposed. They should always have been obvious. But Mr Trump’s defeat to Ted Cruz offers a glimmer of hope that the electorate may finally be awakening to his flaws.

威斯康星州的選民值得感謝。現在就宣告共和黨的潮流已經轉向——或者說唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的弱點終於暴露——還爲時過早。他的弱點應該一直都是顯而易見的。但特朗普敗在特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz)手中讓人心生一線希望：選民對他的種種缺點可能終於醒悟過來。

It would take an improbable series of results in the coming weeks for Mr Cruz to overturn Mr Trump’s delegate lead. Even then, a Cruz nomination would offer Republicans no greater hope of regaining the White House. But Mr Trump is a preposterous candidate. The longer this fissiparous Republican primary goes on, the more voters see what a President Trump would stand for. It is not a pretty sight.

要推翻特朗普在黨代表票數上的領先優勢，克魯茲將需要在未來幾周獲得一連串不太可能的大勝。即使這能做到，提名克魯茲也不會讓共和黨有更大勝算奪回白宮。但特朗普是一個荒謬的候選人。共和黨這場四分五裂的初選拖得越久，選民們就越能看清“特朗普總統”將代表着什麼。那不是一幅衆人樂見的畫面。

As ever, Mr Trump is happily supplying the evidence himself. In the past fortnight his stream of gaffes has become a torrent. By unfavourably contrasting the looks of his wife, Melania Trump, to those of Heidi Cruz, his opponent’s spouse, Mr Trump provoked women to turn out against him in even greater numbers. It also gave Mr Cruz, no Mr Nice Guy, the chance to humanise his message.

與以往一樣，特朗普本人樂於提供證據。過去兩週裏，他一次接一次的失言已經從小溪變成洪流。他把自己的妻子梅拉尼亞•特朗普(Melania Trump)的相貌與對手的配偶海蒂•克魯茲(Heidi Cruz)進行對比，促使更多女性站到他的對立面。這也使本來並非“好好先生”的克魯茲有機會讓自己具有人情味。

Likewise, Mr Trump’s assertion — promptly withdrawn — that women who undergo abortions should be punished sparked outrage even from the most militant opponents of abortion. It added to the impression that Mr Trump is making things up as he goes along. The same applies to his advice that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear deterrents — a comment that elicited unusual rebukes from Tokyo and Seoul. Then he threatened that a Trump-led US would walk away from Nato. And so on.

同樣，特朗普有關墮胎的女性應該受到懲罰的斷言（即便很快被收回）激起民憤，就連最激進的反對墮胎者也表示憤慨。這件事強化了這樣一種印象，即特朗普一直在即興胡扯。他發表的有關日本和韓國應該自行發展核威懾的建議同樣是奇葩——他的“高見”招致東京和首爾不同尋常地作出駁斥。接着特朗普又威脅稱，由他主政的美國將捨棄北約(Nato)。諸如此類。

It is quite possible that Mr Trump will shake off these doubts and go on to win the more important primary that will take place in New York state later this month. A large chunk of the Republican electorate is impervious to Mr Trump’s general election weaknesses. By voting for him, they intend to send a stark message to the Republican establishment.

當然，特朗普很有可能將擺脫這些疑慮，在本月晚些時候贏得更重要的紐約州初選。很大一部分共和黨選民對特朗普在大選中的弱點無動於衷。他們投票給他是要向共和黨體制內階層傳遞一個刺耳的信息。

It is also still likely that Mr Trump will head into the Republican convention in July with the largest share of delegates behind him. But the result in Wisconsin exposed two of Mr Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities. First, Mr Cruz’s campaign is light years ahead of Mr Trump in terms of organisation. This could make a big difference as the contest turns increasingly to a ground game where the ability to garner more delegates will be decisive. The race is turning into a logistical war of attrition that will accentuate Mr Cruz’s strengths.

同樣很有可能的是，在7月共和黨舉行全國代表大會時，特朗普將擁有最大比例的黨代表票支持。但是威斯康星州的初選結果暴露了特朗普的兩大脆弱性。首先，克魯茲的競選團隊在組織方面遙遙領先於特朗普。隨着這場競賽日益變成一場短兵相接的角力（其間爭取更多黨代表票的能力將起到決定性作用），這一點可能帶來很大的不同。目前兩人之間的競賽正在演變成一場比拼後勤實力的消耗戰，這有利於克魯茲發揮自己的強項。

Second, the US media have scented blood. Stung by criticism they have provided Mr Trump with too much free airtime — about $2bn worth according to one estimate — the television networks are keen to make amends. Mr Trump’s celebrity appeal still attracts lots of eyeballs. But TV executives are discovering that his downfall could also make for compelling viewing. Megyn Kelly, the Fox News anchor whom Mr Trump has repeatedly denigrated, has seen her ratings soar. Having lived by the sword, Mr Trump may also die by it.

其次，美國媒體聞到了血腥味。批評人士曾稱，媒體給了特朗普太多免費上鏡時間（有一個估計是這些時間價值約20億美元）。受此刺痛，各大電視網絡都熱衷於作出彌補。特朗普的名人魅力仍然吸引大量眼球。但電視高管們現在發現，他的下坡路也可能提振收視率。特朗普一再詆譭的福克斯新聞(Fox News)主播梅根•凱利(Megyn Kelly)現在收視率飆升。在依靠刀劍聲名鵲起之後，特朗普也可能“死”於刀劍之下。

That, at least, is the hope among Mr Trump’s opponents. The reality is still likely to be messy. In all probability, Republicans will be unable to avoid a contested convention in July.

至少，這是特朗普的對手的期待。現實仍然很可能是亂七八糟的。最有可能的情況是，共和黨將無法避免7月份的“僵局代表大會”(contested convention)。

When Mr Trump burst on to the scene almost a year ago, conventional wisdom dismissed his early poll numbers as a passing fad. It went on far longer than anyone expected. A majority of Republicans continue to oppose Mr Trump’s nomination. It is not too late for others to follow suit.

特朗普在近一年前登上舞臺時，傳統智慧曾對他早期的民調數字不以爲意，稱其爲曇花一現。這朵“曇花”的耐久性遠遠超出任何人的預期。多數共和黨人繼續反對特朗普獲得提名。其他人現在效仿還不算太遲。