中國啓動存款保險 將風險引入銀行業

HONG KONG — When the United States started insuring customer deposits, the government wanted to instill faith in the country’s financial system, which had been broken by a string of bank runs and failures during the Great Depression.

香港——美國開始爲儲戶的存款提供保障時，政府是希望向該國的金融體系注入信心，大蕭條時期一系列銀行擠兌和倒閉的事件破壞了人們對金融業的信心。

China wants to do the opposite.

中國想要的則恰恰相反。

With the introduction of deposit insurance on Friday, Beijing is looking to shake the public’s faith, namely the long-held belief that the government will bail out troubled banks. In short, China is trying to introduce risk into the system.

北京週五開始實行存款保險制度，希望以此動搖公衆的信心——也就是儲戶長期以來認爲政府會對陷入困境的銀行施以援手的念頭。簡而言之，中國試圖將風險引入金融體系。

As China moves to restructure its state-run economy, such banking reform is considered critical. To help bolster consumer demand and wean itself off growth fueled by cheap credit, China needs banks to take a more market-driven approach. That means making smarter loans to companies and individuals — and accepting the consequences when they don’t work out.

隨着中國採取行動調整國有經濟結構，外界認爲此類銀行改革十分關鍵。爲了幫助增強消費需求，擺脫由廉價信貸推動的增長模式，中國需要讓銀行採取更加市場化的路線。這意味着向公司和個人提供更多貸款，並接受不良貸款帶來的後果。

“The reality in China was that the deposits of the proletariat have always been de facto backed up by the central government,” said Jim Antos, a banking analyst in Hong Kong at Mizuho Securities Asia. Formal deposit insurance is “the first step in a process where maybe we can have some way to deal with the resolution of financial problems in banks in China, something like a bank failure.”

“中國過去的現實是，無產階級的儲蓄實際上一直受到中央政府的擔保，”瑞穗證券亞洲公司(Mizuho Securities Asia)駐香港的銀行分析師吉姆·安託斯(Jim Antos)說。推行正式的存款保險制度是“整個過程的第一步，我們在這個過程中，或許可以找到一些應對中國銀行業的財務問題的方法，比如銀行倒閉問題。”

Since China started opening its economy in the late 1970s, Beijing has played the role of financial arbitrator and ultimate guarantor. It has used banks to promote industries and companies deemed important to the state, propping them up in times of trouble.

自中國在上世紀70年代末開始開放經濟以來，北京扮演了金融仲裁員和最終擔保人的角色。北京通過銀行，推動那些被認爲對國家非常重要的產業和企業的發展，在它們遭遇困境的時候爲它們提供支持。

When Hainan Development Bank collapsed in 1998, China’s central bank made sure no depositors incurred losses, by transferring their accounts at full value to the much larger Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. During a bank run last year at a rural lender in the eastern province of Jiangsu, the central bank delivered cash by the truckload and local politicians went on television to reassure people their savings were safe.

1998年海南發展銀行倒閉時，中國央行確保儲戶免遭損失，將他們的賬戶存款按全部價值轉存到了規模大得多的中國工商銀行。去年，東部省份江蘇省農村地區的一家銀行發生擠兌時，央行運送了幾卡車現金，當地官員在電視上安撫民心，稱存款是安全的。

Now, the government is signaling a willingness to pull away, at least selectively. On April 21, for example, China’s huge domestic bond market experienced its first default by a state-owned company, and analysts expect more to follow.

如今，政府放出放任不管的信號，至少是有選擇地放任不管。例如，4月21日，中國規模巨大的國內債券市場經歷了國企的首次違約，分析人士預期未來會出現更多類似的情況。

The banking sector sits at the center of the overhaul effort. For years, China’s banks have paid ordinary savers generally low rates on their deposits and lent those funds to state-run companies, which have been known for making wasteful investments. Allowing market forces to play a bigger role in this process is intended to push banks to more accurately price risk when lending.

銀行業處於改革的中心。多年來，中國的銀行爲普通儲戶提供普遍較低的利率，然後將這些資金貸給國有企業，國企則以開展金額巨大卻浪費的投資而著稱。允許市場力量在這個過程中發揮更大作用，是爲了使銀行在發放貸款時，在定價中更準確地評估風險。

Deposit insurance is just the first step — and a relatively easy one. The government also plans to remove the caps on interest rates that banks pay on those deposits, which officials have signaled could happen as soon as this year.

存款保險只是第一步——也是相對簡單的步驟。政府還計劃解除銀行的存款利率上限，官員們表示最快可能會在今年解除。

Combined, these two measures will force Chinese banks to reorient their thinking and take into account market dynamics. Without the implicit backing of the government, banks will have to pay more attention to the creditworthiness of borrowers, rather than simply favoring loans to state-owned enterprises.

這兩大舉措將會迫使中國銀行調整思維，考慮市場動態。沒有了政府的絕對支持，銀行就需要更關注債務人的信譽，而不只是傾向於向國企提供貸款。

They will also have to compete for customer deposits by paying higher interest rates to savers. China’s leaders hope that consumers, with extra money in their accounts, will increase their spending; Beijing sees consumer demand as a main driver of the country’s future economic growth.

它們還需要通過向儲戶提供更高的利率來爭奪儲戶的存款。中國的領導人希望有額外存款的消費者會擴大支出；北京方面認爲消費者的需求是推動中國未來經濟增長的主要動力。

The challenges are significant, for banks and the economy. China has been considering more liberal interest rates since the mid-1980s, and the introduction of deposit insurance since at least 1993. Policy makers have hesitated in part because similar financial reforms have set off crises in other markets.

銀行和中國經濟面臨着巨大挑戰。中國從上世紀80年代中期開始考慮擴大利率自由度，至少從1993年就開始考慮推出存款保險制度。但決策者之所以一直猶豫不決，部分是因爲類似的金融改革曾在其他市場引發過危機。

Officials at China’s central bank have closely studied the situation in the United States in the 1980s, when government deregulation of interest rates contributed to what became known as the savings and loan crisis. Banks and other lending institutions became locked in competitive increases in deposit rates, which drove them to make increasingly risky, high-interest loans. By the mid-1990s, nearly 3,000 United States financial institutions had failed.

中國央行的官員對美國上世紀80年代的情況進行了仔細研究。當時，政府對利率放鬆監管，在一定程度上引發了隨後所謂的儲貸危機。銀行和其他借貸機構都陷入了一種無法擺脫的處境，即需要競相提高存款利率，這又迫使它們發放風險和利率更高的貸款。到上世紀90年代中期，美國共有近3000家金融機構倒閉。

Chinese regulators are hoping to avoid a repeat of the American experience. To help keep banks in check, China’s deposit insurance plan will require the banks to pay a two-part premium: a fixed minimum rate, plus an adjustable rate based on the riskiness of their lending practices.

中國的監管機構希望避免重蹈美國的覆轍。爲了約束銀行，中國的存款保險制度要求銀行支付的保費會由兩部分組成：一部分是固定的最低費率，另一部分則根據其信貸操作的風險程度調節。

“Banks are on notice if they raise rates and then engage in what the regulators regard as riskier lending, they will have to pay higher insurance premiums,” said Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who has studied China’s financial system for decades. “This it is hoped will deter such risky behavior and thus head off a competitive race to raise rates when the cap on deposit rates is lifted.”

“如果銀行提高利率，之後發放在監管機構看來風險較高的貸款，銀行就會受到警告，它們就需要繳納較高的保費，”彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員尼古拉斯·拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)表示。“希望能憑藉這種手段來避免這種危險行爲，從而在存款利率的上限解除時，阻止爭相提高利率的行爲。”拉迪已經研究中國金融體系達數十年。

For the banks, the insurance premiums represent an additional expense that could crimp their profit margins. China’s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said the base premium would be set at only 0.01 percent to 0.02 percent of deposits at the onset, a level he described as “much lower than the initial rates in the majority of countries when they introduced deposit insurance,” according to transcripts of interviews published this week in the Chinese press.

對於銀行而言，保費是一個額外費用，可能會壓縮它們的利潤空間。中國央行行長周小川曾表示，基礎保費最初將只被設定在存款金額的0.01%到0.02%。根據中國媒體本週發表的採訪記錄，他說這個水平“遠低於絕大多數國家存保起步時的水平以及現行水平”。

So far, regulators have declined to say at what level they will set the adjustable, risk-based premiums. “It’s like with car insurance,” Mr. Zhou said in the interviews. “Drivers who get in accidents pay higher premiums, those that don’t pay lower ones. This helps create a positive incentive to reduce risk.”

截至目前，監管機構還拒絕透露基於風險的可調保費將設定在何種水平。“類似車險，”周小川在採訪中說。“如同司機交保費：事故多的司機保費高，不出事的司機保費低，這樣更能實現正向激勵，從而降低風險。”

Ordinary Chinese, too, will have to digest the new risk in the banking system. Under the insurance plan, only the first 500,000 renminbi, or roughly $80,000, in any given account will be insured.

普通中國人也必須消化銀行體系中的新風險。根據保險計劃，一個賬戶中存款保險的最高償付限額是50萬元人民幣。

Officials say this will effectively cover 99.6 percent of all depositors. But analysts point out that the amount of deposits covered will be much lower — some estimate that only around 50 percent of deposits by value will be insured, because some very wealthy individuals park large sums in their accounts.

官員稱，這實際上能使99.6%的各類儲戶得到全額保障，但分析師指出，受到保障的存款金額將會少很多。有人估計，從金額上看，只有大約50%的存款能獲得保險，因爲一些非常富有的人會在儲蓄賬戶裏存很多錢。

Changing public perceptions about the risk of bank deposits could have implications for another huge part of the system: shadow financing, or off-balance-sheet fund-raising.

讓公衆改變對銀行存款風險的認識，金融體系的另一個巨大部分或許也會受到影響，即影子融資，或表外融資。

In recent years, trust companies and other loosely regulated institutions in China have issued billions of dollars in loans, relying on funds raised by selling short-term, high-interest wealth management products. It is a murky market where levels of risk, including of default, are difficult to quantify. But ordinary investors regard the risk of such products as comparable to savings deposits, since they are often marketed by banks.

近年來，中國的信託公司和其他監管較爲寬鬆的機構依靠出售短期、高利率的理財產品來籌集資金，發放了數十億美元的貸款。這是一個混亂的市場，違約等風險的嚴重程度都難以量化。但普通投資者認爲，這些產品的風險與儲蓄類似，因爲它們通常由銀行銷售。

Analysts say that could change with the introduction of deposit insurance, potentially pulling money out of riskier investment products and putting it back into the official banking system. That could be a good thing in the long term, even if it leads to more defaults in the near term.

分析師表示，在引入存款保險後，這種局面就會改變，可能會把資金從風險較高的投資產品中抽出，再把這些錢放回官方銀行體系。長期來看，這可能是件好事，即使它近期會導致更多債務違約。

“Households will likely keep some resources in higher-return, higher-risk instruments, but they will properly recognize the risks involved,” said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former China-based official at the United States Treasury Department and the World Bank.

華盛頓布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)高級研究員、美國財政部(Treasury Department)和世界銀行(World Bank)前駐中國官員杜大偉(David Dollar)說，“家庭可能會將資金保留在在一些高收益、高風險的工具當中，但他們或許會意識到其中的風險。”

“The government can then allow some defaults and bankruptcies, which they have done recently,” Mr. Dollar added. “This is a normal part of a market economy and should not be alarming.”

“政府隨後可能會允許一些違約及破產事件發生，它們最近就是這麼做的，”杜大偉說。“這是市場經濟的正常組成部分，不應成爲一種令人擔心的情況。”