“中國軍事介入阿富汗”謎團加深

A mystery over recent sightings of Chinese military vehicles patrolling inside Afghanistan deepened last week as Beijing denied its troops were in Afghanistan but confirmed it was undertaking “joint counter-terrorism operations” with Kabul.

近期，有人看到中國軍車在阿富汗境內巡邏。上週，此事引發的謎團有所加深——中國否認其軍隊在阿富汗境內，但證實了中國正與阿富汗執行“聯合反恐行動”。

The disclosure comes as China steps up its involvement with its western neighbour amid a gradual withdrawal by US forces from the war-ravaged country.

上述消息傳來之際，隨着美國軍隊逐漸撤出飽受戰爭蹂躪的阿富汗，中國開始加大對這個西部鄰國的介入力度。

Ren Guoqiang, a spokesman for the Peoples Liberation Army, was asked about reports of Chinese troops inside Afghanistan at a defence ministry press conference on Thursday. He flatly denied any military involvement but said that “the law enforcement authorities of the two sides have conducted joint law enforcement operations in border areas to fight against terrorism”, according to an official transcript of the remarks made available Friday.

在上週四舉行的中國國防部記者會上，國防部新聞發言人任國強被問及有關中國軍隊出現在阿富汗境內的報道。根據上週五公佈的官方文字實錄，任國強斷然否認了任何軍事介入，但他表示，“中阿兩國執法部門確實根據雙方的執法合作協議在邊境地區開展了聯合執法行動，目的是共同打擊恐怖主義”。

“The report that the Chinese military patrolled in Afghanistan is false,” he said. An effort Friday to clarify whether there were any Chinese non-military patrols on the Afghan side of the border was met with the same response.

“有的外國媒體報道中國軍隊車輛進入阿富汗境內巡邏，這與事實不符，”他說。上週五，記者要求澄清在中阿邊境的阿富汗一側是否有中國非軍事力量參與巡邏時，得到了相同的回答。

Col Ren was referring to a number of eyewitness reports and photos appearing to show Chinese military vehicles patrolling inside Afghanistan in recent months.

任國強上校針對的是一些目擊者的說法，以及似乎顯示最近幾個月阿富汗境內有中國軍用車輛在巡邏的照片。

The first photos were published on November 3, when Wion, an Indian news website, reported the presence of Chinese military vehicles in the Wakhan corridor, a mountainous strip of land between the Pamir and Karakoram mountain ranges that extends all the way to the border with China.

第一張照片發表於去年11月3日，當時印度新聞網站Wion報道稱，中國軍用車輛出現在帕米爾高原和喀喇崑崙山脈之間的山谷地帶——瓦罕(Wakhan)走廊。該走廊一直延伸至中阿邊界。

In February, the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a think-tank, published a report citing “overwhelming evidence” including statements of diplomats, as well as an unnamed Chinese official, that Chinese troops were patrolling inside Afghanistan, though the article also cited a denial by Sediq Sediqi, a spokesman for Afghanistan’s ministry of internal affairs.

2月，智庫Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst發表了一份援引“壓倒性證據”的報告，其中包括一些外交官和一位未具名中國官員的說法，稱中國軍隊在阿富汗境內巡邏。不過，這篇文章也引用了阿富汗內政部發言人塞迪克?塞迪奇(Sediq Sediqi)的否認說法。

Justin Bronk, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that a denial by Beijing that the Chinese military was involved might not rule out a military-style operation by police. “Clearly in a place like Afghanistan, law enforcement and military patrols are rather blurred terms” he said.

位於倫敦的英國皇家聯合軍種研究院(Royal United Services Institute)的分析師賈斯廷?布朗克(Justin Bronk)說，北京方面對於中國軍隊介入的否認，可能並不排除使用警力展開軍事性行動的可能性。“很顯然，在像阿富汗這種地方，執法和軍事巡邏這兩個說法之間的界限相當模糊，”他說。

He said published photos of the alleged patrols showed two types of Chinese vehicles — the Dongfeng EQ 2050, similar to the US Humvee, and the Norinco VP 11, a mine resistant vehicle. Both are military vehicles, said Mr Bronk, but could be used in a law enforcement capacity.

布朗克表示，公佈的所謂巡邏照片顯示了兩種中國車輛——類似於美國軍用悍馬(Humvee)的東風猛士EQ2050越野車以及北方工業公司(Norinco)的VP 11防雷越野車。他說，兩者都是軍用車輛，但可以用於執法行動。

If an agreement on joint patrolling exists, it would not the first such arrangement of extraterritorial law enforcement that China has with a border state. Since December 2011, China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand have completed dozens of joint police patrols on the Mekong river, aiming to crack down on crime in the region. Those patrols follow the brutal murder of 13 Chinese sailors on a stretch of the Mekong by suspected drug smugglers in Oct 2011.

如果存在關於聯合巡邏的協議，那麼這不是中國首次與鄰國達成的境外執法安排。自2011年12月以來，中國、老撾、緬甸和泰國已在湄公河地區完成了數十次聯合警察巡邏，旨在打擊該地區的犯罪活動。在巡邏之前的2011年10月，涉嫌走私毒品者在湄公河地區殘忍地殺害了13名中國船員。

The motivations for China to deepen its involvement in Afghanistan are several. Beijing fears contagion from Islamic extremism, while Chinese companies also hold key mining and hydrocarbons concessions across Afghanistan.

中國更深介入阿富汗事務的動機有很多個。北京方面害怕伊斯蘭極端主義勢力的蔓延，而中國企業也在阿富汗境內擁有關鍵的採礦和碳氫化合物特許經營權。

“China's main focus is counter-terrorism,” said Andrew Small, an expert on China at the German Marshall Fund. He added that the Turkistan Islamic Party, a separatist organisation that China has linked to terror attacks, was believed to have its headquarters in Badakhshan, the Afghan province neighbouring China.

“中國的主要焦點是反恐怖主義，”德國馬歇爾基金會(German Marshall Fund)中國問題專家安德魯?斯莫爾(Andrew Small)表示。他接着說，中國認定分裂主義組織突厥斯坦伊斯蘭黨（Turkistan Islamic Party，又稱“東突厥斯坦伊斯蘭運動”，中文簡稱：東伊運）跟恐怖襲擊有關聯，據信該組織的總部設在阿富汗與中國相鄰的省份巴達赫尚省(Badakhshan)。

Often accused of being a “free rider” that benefits from the security provided by US forces in Afghanistan, China has also been forced to respond to the likelihood of an eventual US withdrawal from the country.

中國的動機還包括應對美國最終撤出阿富汗的可能性。人們常常指責中國是駐阿美軍提供的安全保護的“免費搭車者”。

“It’s impossible to see what China is doing outside the context of the US drawdown, which forced China, reluctantly, to face up to the fact that it will have to take on greater responsibility for security in its western periphery,” said Mr Small.

“如果去掉美國撤軍的背景，就不可能理解中國在做什麼。美國撤軍迫使中國不情願地面對一個事實，即它必須對西部周邊的安全承擔更大責任，”斯莫爾說。

In 2014 former US President Barack Obama announced that US forces would leave Afghanistan by the end of his term in office, though due to the worsening security environment 8,400 have stayed on since a partial drawdown was completed in December.

2014年，時任美國總統的巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)宣佈，美國駐軍將在他任期結束前撤離阿富汗。不過，由於安全環境的惡化，去年12月完成部分撤軍以後，有8400人一直未撤走。