[科技前沿]4G熱潮：看一眼現實吧

4G hype: Time for a reality check
By Stephanie N. Mehta

Wireless carriers tout a new wave of wireless technology but it will be years before Most consumers benefit — and before carriers make money.

Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Verizon (VZ) and Vodafone (VOD), last week announced it had completed data "calls" using its flavor of so-called 4G technology, a new generation of radio upgrades that promises to improve the throughput and capacity of wireless phone networks.

Rival Sprint Nextel (S) immediately responded with a flurry of news releases touting its 4G network, which uses a competing technical standard. In proclaiming its ability to deliver peak downlink speeds of 10 Mbps, one release gushed: "At these speeds, Sprint 4G breathes new life into wireless Internet."

Um, wasn't that what 3G was supposed to do?

Okay, that was a little harsh. But some analysts say the wireless carriers and their suppliers are hyping 4G technologies way before the services –and devices–are ready for prime time.

Indeed, many carriers globally still are building out their third-generation networks, and are only now starting to see returns on their investments, which included substantial payments for additional spectrum licenses.

3G all over again?

"Yay, Verizon made a test call on LTE," deadpans Jane Zweig, CEO of the Shosteck Group, a telecommunications consulting firm. LTE stands for Long Term Evolution, and it is the technology Verizon and many other incumbent phone operators are using to transition to yet another generation of broadband networks.

Zweig, whose firm has predicted that global wireless giant Vodafone won't make a return on its 3G investment (including spectrum) until 2013, sees 4G as a replay of 3G: a long, painful slog that will take many years to get up and running–and many more after that to produce financial gains for the carriers.

"Let's replay 3G," she says. "Where are the devices? What is it that people are going to do? How much is the build out going cost? What's the resturn on investment. Is this a vendor dream or a carrier's nightmare?"

The carriers' 3G experience in the U.S. and abroad certainly offer clues as to how long it will take for 4G to become pervasive (and useful) to consumers.

When carriers started rolling out 3G systems in the early part of the decade–Japan's NTT DoCoMo (DCM) in 2001 became the first operator of a 3G network; Verizon followed two years later as the first major carrier in the U.S. to offer 3G–there was a lot of excitement (ample press releases, white papers and briefings by breathless executives) but not a lot for consumers to do with the network.

Some road warriors procured wireless data cards to hook their laptops up to the new network, but the first wave of 3G phones didn't offer much of a multimedia experience.

If you build it…

A few executives at U.S. wireless operators admitted at the time that 3G mainly allowed them to handle high volumes of voice calls at peak times. Not exactly what the futuristic data network was intended for.

Along came Apple's (AAPL) iPhone: More than five years after 3G launched in the U.S. consumers finally had a device that showed them the power of mobile broadband networks. (Ironically the first iPhone ran on AT&Ts (T) less robust EDGE network, sometimes referred to as a 2.5G network.)

Other 3G devices started hitting stores, and today there's a real consumer case for 3G: almost a decade after carriers pledged billions of dollars to acquire wireless spectrum and build out networks. And, still, as Zweig and other analysts point out, 3G coverage in the U.S. remains spotty and service problems persist.

Will 4G help? Many operators (and the vendors that hope to sell them expensive new gear) are already touting 4G as the solution to issues of data overload they are now facing as consumers spend a growing amount of time downloading applications and doing heavy-duty computing on their mobile devices.

But as with 3G, fully formed 4G systems–the networks, the devices, the applications–are years away. Telecom executives like to quote the 1989 movie Field of Dreams: "If you build it, they will come." They'll come, alright, just not any time soon.

無線運營商極力吹捧新一代無線科技的浪潮，但是消費者要等到多年以後纔會從中受益，並且很多年後運營商纔會從中盈利。

上週， Verizon和沃達豐（Vodafone）的合資企業Verizon無線（Verizon Wireless）宣佈已經運用其特色的4G技術完成了數據“呼叫”。所謂4G技術，是指新一代無線電技術的升級，可以提高無線電話網絡的傳輸率和容量。

其勁敵斯普林特公司（Sprint Nextel）立即發佈了一系列新聞進行迴應，宣揚其4G網絡運用了極具競爭力的技術標準，下行鏈路速率最高能達到10Mbps。一條新聞稱：“斯普林特的4G技術在如此高速下，爲無線互聯網帶來了新的生機。”

可是，這難道不是3G技術本該做到的嗎？

好吧，這樣說可能有些刺耳。但是一些分析師指出，無線運營商及其供應商正在誇大4G技術的功能，實際上4G服務和設備還沒有成熟。

的確，全世界許多運營商仍然在建立全球第三代通信網絡，而且它們纔剛剛取得投資回報，這些投資還包括爲附加頻譜執照所支付的大額款項。

3G要重新開始嗎？

電信顧問公司肖斯泰克集團（Shosteck Group）首席執行官簡•茨威格（Jane Zweig）面無表情地說：“是啊，Verizon曾對LTE做過測試通話，”LTE即長期演進技術（Long Term Evolution），Verizon和其它一些電話運營商都利用此技術向下一代寬帶網絡過渡。

茨威格的公司預計，世界無線通訊巨頭沃達豐直到2013年纔會在3G投資（包括頻譜）上盈利。茨威格認爲，4G技術只是3G的重演：要經過很多年的努力才起步騰飛，而運營商的盈利則需要更長時間。

她說：“讓我們重新發展3G吧，設備在哪？人們將要做什麼？建立3G網絡的成本是多少？投資的回報又是多少？這究竟是供應商的美夢還是運營商的噩夢？”

根據運營商在美國和其它國家發展3G技術的經驗，4G技術開始流行（併發揮作用）還需要相當長時間。

本世紀初，由於運營商開始推出3G體系，日本NTT DoCoMo於2001年成爲第一家經營3G網絡的公司；Verizon緊隨其後，在2003年成爲美國3G網絡的第一大運營商——這在當時是不小的轟動（高管們馬不停蹄地準備大量的新聞發佈會、白皮書和簡報），但是消費者與3G網絡似乎並沒有什麼關係。

通過無線數據卡，一些開拓者將筆記本電腦與3G技術成功掛鉤，但第一代3G手機的多媒體功能少之又少。

如果你建立了……

當時，美國無線運營商的少數高管承認： 第一代3G手機主要是在高峯期處理大量的語音呼叫，但這並不是未來數據網絡預期的發展方向。

還有蘋果公司（Apple）的 iPhone：在3G登陸美國5年後，一款能夠證明移動寬帶網絡實力的設備終於與消費者見面。【而具諷刺意味的是，美國電話電報公司（AT&T）運營的第一款iPhone在被稱爲2.5G網絡的EDGE網絡的表現並不算好。】

其它3G設備開始在商店發售，如今3G也有了真正的消費案例：運營商擔保了幾十億美元來獲得無線電頻譜，並建立網絡，期間經歷了十年的時間。然而，正如茨威格和其他分析師指出的，3G在美國只是星星點點的覆蓋，且服務方面的問題層出不窮。

4G會有所幫助嗎？許多運營商（以及希望高價售出新設備的供應商）已經在吹捧4G技術能夠解決目前面臨的數據超載問題。目前，消費者使用手機下載應用軟件和進行復雜計算花費的時間都越來越多。

但是像3G技術一樣，形成一個成熟的4G體系——包括網絡，設備及應用——還需要很多年。電信業高管們喜歡引用1989年電影壯志雄心（Field of Dreams）中的一句話：“只要你有勇氣建造，夢想就會實現。”好吧，它們會實現的，只是不會在近期實現。