科技前沿:四面楚歌 蘋果日子將更加難過

Being in fourth place in the world’s hottest technology market turns out not to be a winning proposition. But is third much better? And might even second place become a less comfortable spot to be in?

事實證明，在全球最火熱的科技市場名列第四不算站穩腳跟。然而，難道第三名就會好得多？有沒有可能連第二名也會變得不那麼舒服？

Those are the inevitable questions prompted by the news this week that BlackBerry is ready to throw in the towel. As with all giant markets, it is tempting to think there is room for several players, some of them thriving on small market shares with niche strategies.

以上是最近黑莓(BlackBerry)準備認輸的新聞傳出後不可避免會引發的疑問。與所有規模巨大的市場一樣，人們會忍不住認爲市場有足夠空間容納多個玩家，其中一些藉助小衆戰略和很小的市場份額，發展得欣欣向榮。

But the competitiveness of technology ecosystems depends on their relative, not absolute, scale. Some 80 per cent of handsets shipped in the second quarter ran on Android, according to the latest figures from IDC. Even if many of those are low-end devices and incompatibility between them continues to make life hard for developers, the Android ecosystem is starting to exert a powerful pull.

然而科技生態系統的競爭力取決於相對而不是絕對規模。根據IDC的最新數據，二季度出貨的手機中大約80%安裝的是安卓(Android)系統。就算這些手機中許多隻是低端手機，手機之間的不兼容性繼續令開發者頭疼，但安卓的生態系統已開始產生強大吸引力。

It doesn’t matter, for instance, that BlackBerry is still selling as many handsets as Apple did when it launched the App Store – a time when Apple was the focus of the entire mobile development world. Mindshare among consumers and developers is all. On that measure, BlackBerry lost a long time ago.

比如說，黑莓現在手機銷售量仍然和蘋果(Apple)剛推出應用商店(App Store)時（當時蘋果是整個移動開發世界關注的焦點）一樣，但是這根本不重要。在消費者和開發者的意識中佔據的“品牌影響力份額”纔是一切。以這個標準衡量，黑莓早就輸了。

Like the cartoon Road Runner going off the edge of a cliff, the Canadian company has been spinning its legs without visible means of support for some time. Its subscriber base peaked less than a year ago, but its competitiveness had eroded long before that.

正如動畫《嗶嗶鳥和大笨狼》中大笨狼懷爾跑出懸崖的樣子，這家加拿大公司在沒有任何可見支撐的情況下雙腿打轉有一段時間了。其用戶在不到一年前達到頂峯並開始下跌，而其競爭力很久前就已遭到侵蝕。

With BlackBerry ready to fold, do things get any better for those who are left? Microsoft may draw some comfort from seeing off a rival, but Windows Phone still has less than 4 per cent of the market. Much as mobile operators would like to see an alternative to Android and Apple’s iOS, the success of a third mobile ecosystem is not ordained.

黑莓打算翻牌認輸了，那些剩下的競爭者日子會好過點麼？少了一個對手，微軟(Microsoft)可能會得到些許寬慰，但是Windows Phone的市場佔有率仍然低於4%。儘管移動運營商也許很願意看到在安卓和蘋果(Apple)公司的iOS之外還有另一個選擇，然而這第三個移動生態系統的成功是沒有保障的。

The more intriguing question, though, surrounds the iPhone. Apple’s market share has fallen to around 13 per cent. It has been at more or less this level before, in the down quarters before the launch of new iPhones. But in relative terms, Android has never looked stronger.

不過，還有一個更耐人尋味的問題，這個問題是有關iPhone的。蘋果的市場份額已經下跌至13%左右。在發佈新款iPhone前的銷售低迷季度，蘋果的份額也曾或多或少處於這個水平。然而相對來說，安卓看起來從未像今天這樣強大。

On almost every measure that counts, the company that invented the touchscreen smartphone either already has been – or soon will be – consigned to the number two position. It happened in hardware sales first: having first overtaken Apple nearly two years ago, Samsung shipped more than twice as many handsets as its US rival in the most recent quarter, according to IDC.

在幾乎每個重要的指標上，發明了觸摸屏智能手機的蘋果要麼已經屈居第二，要麼即將讓出頭把交椅。這種情況首先發生在硬件銷售方面：根據IDC的數據，在差不多兩年前超過蘋果之後，三星最近一季度手機出貨量超過其美國競爭對手的兩倍。

It is now happening in apps. As we reported two months ago, Apple is on the verge of giving up its lead in app downloads. The average Android customer may use fewer apps, but there are a lot more of them and that is starting to turn the heads of developers.

同樣的故事如今正在應用領域上演。正如我們兩個月前所報道的，蘋果即將丟掉其在應用下載量方面的頭號排名。雖然安卓顧客一般使用的應用數量可能要少一些，但是安卓用戶人數多得多，這一點正開始令開發者轉向。

The next significant bragging right that Apple is in danger of losing is its leading share of smartphone industry profits. Apple almost certainly still leads Samsung in this department. The profit margin on the iPhone comfortably exceeds its margin on other products. But unless the expected launch of a new, lower-priced iPhone can stop the rot, Apple will probably be overwhelmed in the profit stakes by the sheer volumes of its arch-rival, as growth shifts to more price sensitive markets.

下一個蘋果原本引以爲豪，現在卻可能丟失的重要陣地是其在智能手機行業居領先地位的利潤份額。在這方面，蘋果幾乎肯定仍勝過三星一籌。蘋果在iPhone上的利潤率毫無懸念地超出了其在其他產品上的利潤率。但是，除非預期將要發佈的新型低價iPhone阻止顧客流失，隨着增長重心轉向更爲價格敏感的市場，蘋果在利潤份額上很可能被其勁敵的龐大出貨量打敗。

There is one important measure on which Apple still has an edge: the money that app developers and content producers earn on its mobile platform. That still makes the iOS a powerful draw for developers and guarantees Apple the all-important premium experiences that have kept buyers coming back for more when upgrade time comes around. If the revamped iOS7 interface is a hit with users and Apple continues to create a richer and more profitable environment for developers, then the core propositions on which the iPhone empire was built will remain in place.

蘋果還有一項重要的指標仍處於領先地位：應用開發者和內容供應商在其移動平臺上的盈利。這一點令iOS對開發者仍然極具吸引力，並且是蘋果至關重要的出色用戶體驗的保障，正是這種出色體驗使得客戶在蘋果產品升級換代時再度掏錢購買。如果煥然一新的iOS 7界面能夠一炮打響，而蘋果繼續爲開發者建立一個功能更豐富、更易於盈利的環境，那麼蘋果賴以打造iPhone帝國的核心競爭力將依然存在。

But volume matters. And when it comes to the numbers, Android’s momentum is now impossible to ignore.

然而，出貨量十分重要。而就數量而言，安卓的發展勢頭無法忽視。

This has left Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, in a difficult position. If he can’t convince iOS developers that he will build a bigger marketplace for them, their attention will continue to drift to Android. But the lower-priced iPhone needed to expand the iOS universe will dilute overall profit margins and may even cannibalise sales of the high-end devices.

這令蘋果首席執行官蒂姆•庫克(Tim Cook)陷入棘手處境。如果他無法說服iOS開發者相信他將爲他們打造一個更大的市場，他們的注意力將繼續轉向安卓。然而擴展iOS生態系統所需的低價iPhone會稀釋整體利潤率，甚至可能蠶食高端產品的銷售。

Logic suggests that Wall Street should get over its fixation on Apple’s slipping profit margin. Grabbing a bigger share of the overall profits is what matters now. A business model in transition, though, is guaranteed to unnerve investors. With activist investor Carl Icahn also now breathing down his neck, Mr Cook’s job is not about to get any easier.

按照邏輯，華爾街應該克服對蘋果不斷下滑的利潤率的迷戀。目前，重要的是爭奪更大份額的總體利潤。有維權投資者卡爾•伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)這樣的人時刻盯着，庫克的工作不會輕鬆。