數量VS檔次 汽車銷售大戰的路線之爭

“Writing is easy,” the sports columnist Red Smith once said. “You just open a vein and bleed.”

體育專欄作者瑞德o史密斯曾說過：“寫作並不難，只需掏心挖肺地對待讀者即可。”

The same might be said of the car business. It’s easy: You just design and build great cars.

汽車行業可能也有類似的表述。這不是件難事：只需要設計並造出好車就行。

Of course, it isn’t that simple. As the recent misfortunes of General Motors GM 0.19% and Ford Motor F -0.30% demonstrate, something as straightforward as installing foolproof ignition switches or accurately calculating fuel economy can elude the most experienced of automakers.

當然，事情並沒有這麼簡單。通用汽車（General Motors）和福特汽車（Ford Motor）最近的負面新聞表明，最爲老道的汽車製造商也會在傻瓜式點火開關的安裝或燃油經濟性計算精確性上面栽跟頭。

When it comes to marketing cars, there is an emerging debate that can most succinctly be described as mass vs. class.

在汽車營銷領域，一場爭論正在如火如荼地進行當中，簡而言之就是：車型數量與檔次之爭。

On the mass side is analyst John Murphy, author of the long-running “Car Wars” study for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Murphy is a fan of new models, the more the merrier. He has consistently demonstrated that market share is directly related to the number of new models a company introduces and the speed with which it refreshes them. While he concedes the importance of mix, pricing, execution, distribution, and brand power, he argues that the more rapidly product lines are expanded and refreshed, the more rapidly sales will grow. “Our measures of replacement rate and showroom age are the major driver of market share gains and losses,” he writes. “Successful new products drive higher market share.”

分析師約翰o墨菲是“數量”派，他是美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）長期調查《汽車之戰》（Car Wars）的作者。墨菲鍾愛新車型，而且車型越多越好。在他的不懈努力之下，他所得出的結論是，市場佔有率與製造商推出新車型的數量和速度有直接關係。在承認搭配、定價、執行、銷售和品牌影響力的重要性的同時，他還認爲，生產線擴張、更新的速度越快，銷售業績的增長也就越快。他寫道：“更新率和展廳年限指標是企業獲得/失去市場份額的主要原因。成功的新產品會帶來更高的市場份額。”

Leading the arguments for the class side is longtime marketing consultant and self-styled industry curmudgeon Peter De Lorenzo. De Lorenzo, who is based in Detroit, leads the AutoExtremist blog, calls himself “a purveyor of the bare-knuckled, unvarnished, high-octane truth,” and has been a rigorous defender of brand integrity. “How a brand is perceived can make or break a car company, regardless of how long and illustrious a run that brand has enjoyed up until any given point in time,” he wrote in June.

“檔次”派陣營的主要人物則是資深營銷顧問、自稱行業異類的皮特o德o羅倫索。德o羅倫索常駐底特律，是博客“汽車極端分子”的博主。他稱自己是一位“非常規、樸實無華、最熱門事實的提供者”，而且一直是品牌誠信的忠實擁躉。他在6月的博文中寫道：“人們對品牌的看法能造就、也能毀掉一家汽車公司，無論這個品牌在此前任何一段時間內擁有多麼悠久或輝煌的歷史。”

De Lorenzo has been a persistent critic of luxury brands that use new models to grow volume. He believes they are compromising their identity by using their brand for vehicles that have no connection to heritage and history. “They believe that if they cover every niche in the market–both real and imagined–it will ensure their survival and profitability,” he contends. “But it doesn’t work,” he writes. “There are painful ramifications that come with their actions.”

德o羅倫索一直都在批評豪華汽車品牌使用新車型來提升銷量的做法。他認爲，這種做法會有損品牌形象，因爲品牌被用在了與其傳承和歷史毫無關聯的車型身上。他指出：“這些廠商認爲，如果公司能照顧到每一個細分市場（有的是真實存在的，有的是公司想象出來的），他們的生存和利潤就有了保障。但這是行不通的，而且這種舉措會帶來痛苦的後果。”

One of the unique strengths of “Car Wars” is its distillation of competitive intelligence, press clippings, speculation, and rumor analysis into a rigorous analysis of future product trends. In the most recent edition covering the years 2015 to 2018, Murphy identifies by model name and segment, every redesign and new model coming to the U.S. market. He sees a surge of new crossovers vehicles bearing the badges of luxury manufacturers that previously concentrated on sedans, coupes, and sports cars–among them Audi, BMW, Jaguar, and Bentley–and writes approvingly about the positive impact on sales. “If the numerous new German Lux CUVs are well received in the market,” he writes, “there may be some upside risk” in the market share of European OEMs.

《汽車之戰》的一個獨特優勢在於，它將競爭情報、新聞簡報、觀察評論和傳聞分析進行過濾加工，然後整合成爲未來產品趨勢的嚴密分析。在最近一期涵蓋2015-2018年趨勢的調查中，墨菲按照車型名稱和類別分別列出了進入美國市場的每一個重新設計的車型和新車型。他發現了新跨界車型的崛起，而這些車型出身於過去專注於轎車、轎跑和跑車的業界豪門，例如奧迪、寶馬、捷豹和賓利，而且他還以讚許的口吻提到了這個趨勢對於銷售的積極影響。他寫道：“如果大量的新型德系豪華CUV（混合型多用途車）在市場上得以熱銷，那麼歐洲OEM（原始設備製造商）廠商的市場份額可能會面臨一些上行風險。”

Such product line extensions into unfamiliar segments by long-established brands induce a state of near apoplexy in De Lorenzo. Brandishing no research but effectively flexing his instinct from years in the business, he argues that automakers–particularly those with a racing heritage–should stick to making cars and leave crossovers and SUVs to the likes of Jeep and Land Rover. He gets especially vitriolic in discussing the strategies of the fast-rising German luxury makers, which seem to keep adding more body styles–BMW Active Tourer anyone?– aimed at freshening up their product lines and adding incremental volume:

知名品牌這種將產品線擴展到陌生領域的做法幾乎讓德o羅倫索感到抓狂。德o羅倫索並不會拿什麼調查來說事，而是有效地藉助多年來形成的行業直覺。他指出，汽車製造商，尤其是那些擁有賽車傳承的製造商，應該致力於製造轎車，同時將跨界車型和SUV交給吉普和路虎這樣的生產廠家。討論迅速崛起的德國豪華車製造商的決策時，他會變得尤爲刻薄，因爲這種討論似乎總是圍繞增加車型的種類——寶馬Active Tourer車型，有人要嗎？——它們的目的在於更新產品線，從而增加銷量：

o “[Audi] seems to be falling victim to the disease that’s infecting all of the German brands of late, the dreaded being all things to all people daze that leads these manufacturers to drop their guard and make mistakes.”

“（奧迪）似乎患上了最近所有德國品牌無一倖免的傳染病，這是一種面面俱到的可怕打法，它讓消費者眼花繚亂，而且也讓這些製造商放鬆了警惕，開始犯錯誤。”

o “Almost everything that made BMW a BMW has been lost in translation.”

“似乎BMW的一切精髓都已在車型大戰中消失殆盡。”

o “When [Mercedes-Benz is] off, well, they can stink up the joint like no other. Daimler is forced to stretch out its model lineup because it’s trying to fight a brutally competitive auto world without the resources of the other auto manufacturer conglomerates.”

“當（梅賽德斯-奔馳）遭遇滑鐵盧時，它的東施效顰能力較其他品牌有過之而無不及。戴姆勒被迫擴充車型數量，因爲它沒有其它汽車製造巨頭的所擁有的資源作爲依靠，而且還得硬着頭皮去在這個競爭異常激烈的汽車產業中尋求自己的一席之地。”

Murphy and De Lorenzo agree on some things. In the latest “Car Wars,” Murphy singles out Ford and Honda for their speedy replacement of existing models, and predicts that each will gain half a point of market share over the next three years. De Lorenzo likes both companies too. But he worries that if Ford “allows itself to get complacent, its prospects will be less than stellar,” and wonders about Honda, “will it stumble again and lose its way?”

墨菲和德o羅倫索並不是在所有的觀點上都格格不入。在最新一期的《汽車之戰》中，墨菲單獨例舉了福特和本田，介紹了他們快速更換現有車型的舉措。而且他還預測，在未來的三年中，這兩家的市場份額都會增長0.5個百分點。德o羅倫索也很喜歡這兩家公司。但是他擔心，如果福特“放任自己不思進取，它的前景並不會太好。”同時他也爲本田感到擔憂，“它會再次摔倒而變得一蹶不振嗎？”

Who is the winner in this faceoff? The Car Wars analysis has a lot to recommend it. With statistics on new models going back to 1987, it possesses unusual depth. It is even-handed, and if it occasionally misses some fine points, it projects a reasonably accurate view of a company’s relative position in the market compared to its competitors. But Car Wars may be of less value going forward. As foreign automakers fill out their product lines and as all manufactures achieve more consistency in their product renewal cycles, there will be fewer big shifts in market share.

在這場對峙中，誰會成爲贏家？《汽車之戰》的分析有很多都值得稱道。調查涵蓋了1987年的新車型的數據，深度非比尋常。這項調查十分公正，就算偶爾會遺漏一些細節之處，但它以合理的方式準確地展現了公司相對於競爭對手的市場位置。但是從長遠來看，《汽車之戰》調查的價值可能會縮水。因爲隨着外國汽車製造商生產線擴充的完成，以及各大製造商的更新週期變得更爲一致，市場份額的波動將會更小。

De Lorenzo plays favorites and rarely lets the facts get in the way of a good argument. German luxury car makers are enjoying record years, and despite some grumbling about the quality of lower-priced models and unconventional body styles, they appear to be holding on to their existing customers at the same time as they attract new ones. Passionate though he is, De Lorenzo can shift gears. At one time a ferocious opponent of Porsche’s diversification away from sports cars into SUVs and four-doors, he now praises the company for being “relentlessly focused” and “peerless” in its execution.

德o羅倫索打的是喜好牌，而且很少讓事實成爲其有力觀點的障礙。近幾年，德國豪華車製造商的銷售業績接連創下歷史新高，儘管人們對他們的低價車型和非傳統車型的質量仍存在一些抱怨，但這些製造商不僅留住了現有的客戶，還吸引到了新客戶。雖然德o羅倫索是一個狂熱分子，但他也有可能會反其道而行之。曾幾何時，他曾強烈地抨擊保時捷的多元化舉措，即從跑車轉向SUV（）和四門轎跑領域，然而如今，他卻對這家公司“不懈的關注”和“無與倫比”的執行表示讚許。

And in the end, it is execution more than anything else that determines success or the lack of it. Look at Tata, owner of both Jaguar and Land Rover. Jaguar concentrated on sedans and coupes for its entire life and nearly expired. Now the first Jaguar crossover, the XQ, is due in 2017. Land Rover, on the other hand, has stayed focused on SUVs and thrived. Even its Sport model is expedition-capable and there are no signs of an active tourer on the horizon.

最後，在所有的要素中，執行纔是決定成敗的決定性因素。我們不妨看看捷豹和路虎的母公司塔塔。捷豹始終專注於轎車和轎跑，差點破產。如今，捷豹的第一款跨界車型XQ將於2017年面世。另一方面，路虎一直專注於做SUV，並因此而興盛起來。即使路虎的跑車車型都具有越野能力，而且它目前也並不打算推出類似於active tourer這樣的車型。