攪局者小米 雷軍崛起撼動世界

You can tell a lot about the state of the tech industry by looking at the company that’s currently scaring the crap out of everybody. A decade ago, it was Google . More recently, Facebook became the 800-pound gorilla in social media and photo sharing. This year, the heavy is one that was unknown in the US until a year or so ago: Xiaomi.

要想深入瞭解科技業的現狀，只需要看看那家讓所有人都嚇得發抖的頂尖公司即可。10年前是谷歌公司。近幾年則是社交媒體和照片分享領域的巨無霸Facebook公司。而今年的重量級選手，卻是一家直到一年多前還不爲美國人所知的中國公司：小米。

Out of countless smartphone makers that have emerged to build on the Android mobile operating system, Xiaomi has not only broken apart from the herd, it’s quickly given other smartphone manufacturers a run for their money. Xiaomi’s share of the global smartphone market rose to 5.3% in late 2014 from 2.1% a year earlier, according to Statista.

在全球無數家基於安卓系統打造的智能手機廠商中，小米不僅殺出重圍，而且讓其他廠商感受到了極大的競爭壓力。根據德國統計公司Statista提供的數據，在全球智能手機市場上，小米佔據的份額已從2013年的2.1%升至2014年年末的5.3%。

A big reason for Xiaomi’s sudden success is that it designs its own hardware as well as the firmware that rides on top of Android’s open-source software. Xiaomi’s MIUI interface evokes the speed and sleekness of an iPhone or a high-end Samsung phone, but often retails for half the price. Most Android phone sellers, by contrast, rely on similar design templates offered by third-party manufacturers like Foxconn.

小米飛速成功的一大原因是，它是基於安卓開源軟件設計自己的硬件及固件的。小米MIUI系統運行起來平滑流暢，完全可與iPhone或三星的高端手機媲美，但售價卻常常僅是後者的一半。相比之下，絕大多數安卓手機廠商只依賴富士康公司這類第三方代工商提供的相似設計模板。

Xiaomi’s simple strategy of high-quality gadgets at lower prices is threatening the business models of some of the biggest names in technology, including:

小米這一簡單的優質低價戰略，已威脅到了幾家業界大佬的商業模式，比如：

Samsung.In China, where the bulk of Xiaomi’s phones have been sold to date, the company’s market share has risen to 15% from 5% a year earlier. Samsung’s, meanwhile, has fallen to 12% from 19%. According to IDC, Samsung’s smartphone shipments in China declined by 22% in 2014, while Xiaomi’s surged 187%.

三星公司。中國是小米手機銷售的主要市場，該公司的市場份額已從一年前的5%升至目前的15%。而三星的份額則從19%降至12%。IDC公司的數據顯示，三星智能手機2014年的出貨量已下降22%，而小米卻暴增187%。

Samsung has been a big presence in other emerging economies, but Xiaomi announced in January that it would be pushing aggressively into Brazil, Russia and other emerging markets. After launching in India in July, Xiaomi already has a 4% market share. And the company raised $1.1 billion in December, proceeds that could go to building manufacturing and marketing presences in new countries.

在其他新興經濟體，三星的市場地位一直如日中天，但今年1月小米宣佈，該公司將大舉進入巴西、俄羅斯和其他新興市場。在去年7月進入印度後，小米目前已擁有4%的市場份額。此外去年12月，小米成功募得11億美元，這筆錢將用於在新興市場建廠和營銷。

Apple has emerged as the predominant smartphone company at the high end of the market. So with Xiaomi offering stylish phones at lower prices, Samsung may find itself pinched between iPhones and low-cost commodity Android phones. Now Xiaomi is gunning for another core Samsung market: TV sets. In November, Xiaomi paid$200 million for Midea Group, a maker of consumer electronics, and said it would spend $1 billion to build out its TV ecosystem.

蘋果早已是智能機高端市場的霸主。所以，隨着小米推出價格低廉的時尚手機，三星可能會受到iPhone和低價安卓機的雙重擠壓，可謂腹背受敵。現在，小米又把火力對準了三星另一個核心市場：電視。去年11月，小米付給家電廠商美的集團2億美元，並稱其將斥資10億美元打造自己的電視生態系統。

GoPro.Xiaomi is also planning on launching a site to sell its goods in the US. But for various reasons like the complex subsidies US carriers pay to offset sticker prices, Xiaomi won’t sell smartphones here but instead will sell its fitness tracker, headphones and other accessories.

GoPro公司。小米還計劃推出一個網站在美國銷售自己的產品。但出於多種原因，比如美國運營商常常向客戶支付複雜的補貼，從而能夠抵消一些昂貴手機的零售價，小米不會在美銷售智能機，而是打算銷售它的健身追蹤器、耳機和其他配件。

Earlier this month, Xiaomi said it would also start selling the Yi Camera, a 1080p high-definition action camera that sounds a lot like the best-selling Hero sold by GoPro. Only the Yi will sell for $64, or about half the price of the Hero. The Yi even improves on the Hero with a 16-megapixel camera shooting 60 frames a second. So again, high-end quality at half the price.

本月初，小米宣佈將開始發售小蟻運動相機，這是一款1080p高清運動相機，聽起來很像是GoPro最暢銷的Hero相機。只不過小蟻相機僅售64美元，約爲Hero售價的一半。此外，小蟻運動相機還在Hero的基礎上大幅改進，搭載了一個1600萬像素的鏡頭，每秒可拍攝60張照片。這顯然又是一個高端低價產品。

GoPro’s brand is much stronger in the US than Xiaomi’s. If that changes, GoPro faces a tough choice between slashing the Hero’s price or watching its market share erode. GoPro’s stock has already lost 39% this year amid concerns about whether it can maintain its torrid growth pace. The bigger the splash that Xiaomi’s camera makes in the US, the more those concerns will grow.

GoPro的品牌在美國要比小米強勢得多。如果不是這樣，GoPro就將面臨一個艱難選擇，要麼將Hero的售價腰斬，要麼眼睜睜看着自己的市場份額遭到侵蝕。今年GoPro公司的股價已下跌39%，就因爲投資者擔心它是否還能保持高速增長。小米相機在美國掀起的波瀾越大，投資者就會越發擔憂。

Google.As a thriving smartphone company built on Android, you’d think Xiaomi’s success would be a positive for Google, which still makes the vast bulk of its revenue from online ads. But Google’s services and mobile apps are either blocked or hamstrung in China, so local companies like Alibaba and Baidu have long since learned to work on Android phones without Google’s API.

谷歌公司。作爲一家建立在安卓系統之上，發展迅猛的智能手機公司，大家可能會認爲，小米的成功對谷歌這家大部分收入仍來自在線廣告的公司大有好處。但是，谷歌的服務和移動應用在中國不是被屏蔽就是被禁止，所以阿里巴巴和百度這樣的本土企業很早就學會在沒有谷歌應用的安卓手機上開展業務了。

Google has never had a strong footprint in China. What isn’t clear is what role Google apps will play on Xiaomi’s phones sold outside of China. On the one hand, Google takes a hard line on companies that use Android without its services. On the other, Xiaomi VP (and former Googler) Hugo Barra indicated last week that Xiaomi may not export to new markets the app store it uses for its Chinese customers.

谷歌在中國一直就沒怎麼風生水起過。目前尚不清楚的是，在小米賣到國外市場的手機上，谷歌應用將扮演什麼角色。一方面，谷歌對那些使用安卓手機卻不用自己服務的公司態度強硬。另一方面，小米公司的副總裁（也是前谷歌高管）雨果o巴拉上週稱，小米可能不會把目前中國用戶使用的應用商店出口到新興市場。

Apple.Given the popularity of the iPhone 6 in China and across the globe, Apple seems to be immune for now to any threat posed by Xiaomi. But glance a few years down the road and it’s not hard to imagine the Chinese manufacturer competing with the best products offered by the reigning king of Silicon Valley.

蘋果公司。鑑於iPhone 6在中國和全球的熱銷，蘋果眼下似乎絲毫不會被小米撼動。但是展望未來幾年，不難想象這家中國廠商將很快與硅谷王者打造的最佳產品一較高下。

Xiaomi’s MIUI is several years younger than Apple’s iOS. But despite Apple’s early lead, Xiaomi has quickly created an interface that is not only drawing more comparisons with the look and feel of iOS, it’s designed to be used on a wide array of devices from phones to tablets to wearables.

小米的MIUI系統要比蘋果的iOS晚推出幾年。儘管蘋果享有先發地位，但小米迅速地打造了一套外觀和使用體驗都能和iOS媲美的系統，還讓它應用於手機、平板和可穿戴設備等產品。

Xiaomi’s expansion trajectory also looks a lot like Apples: a smart TV console that streams digital content, a fitness tracker that could easily mature into a smartwatch, headphones that offer stylish looks and gold-colored metal. There were even reports this week of a Xiaomi electric car–spurious, to be sure, but it fits the idea that the most innovative companies are interested in the car market.

小米產品的擴張軌跡也和蘋果十分類似：一臺可播放流媒體數字內容的智能電視終端，一款能很容易開發爲智能手錶的健身追蹤器，以及一款外形時尚的金色頭戴式耳機。甚至本週還有傳言稱小米要推出電動汽車——這當然純屬謠傳， 不過這種說法也符合大家普遍認同的一個看法，即最富創新性的公司都盯上了汽車市場。

Apple’s earlier iPhones suffered phases when their features weren’t terribly distinctive from other top phones on the market. If that happens again, and Mi’s user experience comes closer to that of the iPhone, Xiaomi could steal some of Appple’s market share. In the meantime, the two emerging rivals have already taken to throwing shade on each other.

蘋果早期推出的iPhone也曾經歷過低谷，因爲當時它的功能與市面上其他高端手機並無顯著差異。如果這種歷史重演，小米的使用體驗更接近iPhone，小米就會奪去蘋果的一部分市場份額。目前這兩個對手已經開始相互抨擊挑刺了。

Xiaomi is sure to face speed bumps as it races forward, like the patent suitsit’s already facing in India. Competitors may use patent litigation to slow Xiaomi’s global expansion, but then again, a company worth $45 billion and planning an IPO can easily raise enough cash to buy a substantial patent portfolio of its own. Beyond that, it’s hard to see what will slow Xiaomi’s steady march ahead.

在迅速發展的進程中，小米一定也會碰上障礙，比如該公司已經在印度遭遇了專利官司。各路對手可能會用專利訴訟來拖慢小米全球擴張的腳步，但對這樣一家市值高達450億美元，而且正在籌劃上市的企業來說，要籌得足夠資金收購一大堆屬於自己的專利是輕而易舉的事情。除此之外，還很難看到有什麼障礙能阻擋小米堅實而有力的步伐。