看中國崛起如何改變亞洲格局
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are criss-crossing America in the last frantic weeks of the presidential election campaign.
在美國總統大選忙亂的最後幾周裏，希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在美國各地穿梭。
But events will not stand still, while America decides.
但局勢不會停止演變等待美國做出決定。
On the other side of the world, the US has just suffered a significant strategic reverse.
在世界的另一端，美國剛剛遭遇了重大的戰略挫折。
That setback is the apparent decision by the Philippines to switch sides in the emerging power struggle between the US and China.
菲律賓似乎決定在美國與中國新展開的權力爭鬥中轉變立場。
On a visit to Beijing last week, Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, announced a separation from the US and a new special relationship between his country and China.
在上週訪問北京期間，菲律賓總統羅德里戈.杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)宣佈與美國分離，並與中國建立新的特殊關係。
In one of the odder diplomatic pronouncements of an odd year, Mr Duterte proclaimed in the Great Hall of the People in the Chinese capital: There are three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia.
杜特爾特在北京的人民大會堂宣稱：我們三國將共抗世界——中國、菲律賓、俄羅斯。
It’s the only way.
這是唯一的道路。
This statement was greeted by warm applause from his audience.
這是在一個反常之年裏更爲反常的外交聲明之一，在場聽衆報以熱烈掌聲。
Mr Duterte has a tendency to shoot his mouth off.
杜特爾特往往會信口開河。
In an appearance soon after taking office, he made headlines by calling US president Barack Obama the son of a whore.
他在就任總統不久的一次公開露面中罵美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)是婊子養的，從而登上了新聞頭條。
But there is more than mere bluster involved in the Duterte pivot.
但杜特爾特的轉變立場不僅僅是說大話。
The Filipino leader has also said that he intends to end military co-operation with the US.
這位菲律賓領導人還表示，他打算停止與美國的軍事合作。
Joint naval patrols in the Pacific will apparently come to a stop, as will joint counter¬terrorism operations on the southern island of Mindanao.
太平洋上的聯合海軍巡邏看來將會取消，菲律賓南部棉蘭老島(Mindanao)上的聯合反恐演習也將告吹。
Some American strategists are worried that the Philippines might even now become a base for the swiftly expanding Chinese navy.
一些美國戰略家擔心，菲律賓甚至可能成爲迅速擴張的中國海軍的基地。
Mrs Clinton, in particular, will understand the significance of all this.
希拉里尤其明白所有這些事件的重大影響。
A central theme of her period at the state department was an effort to bolster America’s position in Asia and the Pacific.
她任職國務卿期間的一大要務是努力提升美國在亞洲和太平洋地區的地位。
It was Mrs Clinton who proclaimed in 2010 that the US has a national interest in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
正是希拉里在2010年宣稱，南中國海上的航行自由攸關美國國家利益。
This statement outraged the Chinese, whose famous nine-dash line on oceanic maps appears to claim that almost all of the South China Sea lies within Beijing’s territorial waters.
這種聲明激怒了中國人，中國在海洋地圖上劃定的著名的九段線似乎表明，南中國海幾乎所有海域都屬於中國的領海範圍。
As Mrs Clinton told Goldman Sachs, in a speech given in 2013 and recently leaked, she is worried that China’s maritime claims will give it a chokehold on sea lanes and also on the countries that border the South China Sea.
正如希拉里向高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示的那樣，她擔心中國的海洋主張將使其能夠扼守海上航線並壓制南中國海周邊國家。希拉里是在2013年發表上述演講的，最近演講內容流傳了出來。
Those concerns have since been further stoked by China’s programme of island building in the disputed waters.
自那以來中國實施了在有爭議海域建造島嶼的項目，這進一步激發了那些擔憂。
The Philippines was at the centre of America’s strategic and legal efforts to loosen China’s potential chokehold over the South China Sea.
美國試圖從戰略和法律層面解除中國對南中國海的潛在遏制，菲律賓處於這種努力的核心。
Some of the tensest disputes in the sea — such as arguments over the ownership of Scarborough Shoal — involve a face-off between China and the Philippines.
一些與南中國海相關的最激烈的爭論——比如圍繞斯卡伯勒淺灘(Scarborough Shoal,中國稱黃巖島——譯者注)主權的爭論——就涉及中國與菲律賓的對峙。
It was Manila that brought a legal challenge against Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, winning a ruling at an international tribunal in July.
正是馬尼拉起訴中國關於南中國海的主張，並在今年7月被一家國際仲裁庭裁定勝訴。
This ruling is crucial to Washington’s argument that its dispute with China is not a crude power struggle but rather an effort, by the US, to protect the international legal order in the interests of all.
這項裁決對華盛頓的以下論點非常重要：美國與中國的爭執不是原始的權力爭鬥，而是美國爲了所有人的利益而努力保護國際法律秩序。
On a purely strategic level, the Philippines is (or was) also vital to America’s efforts to counter the military facilities that China seems to be building on its artificial islands.
在純粹的戰略層面，菲律賓還對美國對抗中國似乎在人造島上建造的軍事設施至關重要，或者說之前是這樣。
Earlier this year, Manila and Washington agreed to increase America’s military presence in five bases on Filipino territory, including an air base on the island of Palawan, very close to the disputed Spratly Islands.
今年早些時候，馬尼拉和華盛頓同意增強美國在菲律賓境內5個美軍基地上的軍事存在，包括在巴拉望島(Palawan)的一個空軍基地，而巴拉望島距離有爭議的斯普拉特利羣島(Spratly Islands,中國稱南沙羣島)非常近。
Those US-Philippine agreements now look likely to be revoked.
那些美菲協議現在看起來可能被取銷。
More broadly, America’s moral case for standing up to China looks much weaker if China’s own neighbours no longer seem so worried by its territorial claims.
更廣泛來說，如果中國自己的鄰國不再那麼擔憂中國的領土主張，美國提出的對抗中國主張在道義上就不太能站得住腳了。
Some American strategists take comfort from Mr Duterte’s obvious eccentricity.
令一些美國戰略家欣慰的是，杜特爾特明顯行爲古怪。
They argue that, in the long run, the Philippines will rediscover its strategic interest in seeking the protection of Uncle Sam.
他們辯稱，長期而言，菲律賓將會再次發現，尋求山姆大叔的保護符合其戰略利益。
But it is also possible that Mr Duterte, for all his wild man antics, is actually part of a larger trend in Southeast Asia.
但還有一種可能是，儘管杜特爾特狂妄而古怪，但他的行爲實際上可能符合東南亞的一種更廣泛的趨勢。
Next year, the Philippines will lead the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
菲律賓明年將領導東盟(ASEAN)。
And this will happen just as two other important US allies in the region — Thailand and Malaysia — have begun to tilt towards China.
而美國在該地區的另兩個重要盟友泰國和馬來西亞開始表現出親華傾向。
The military coup in Thailand in 2014 led to a downturn in relations between Bangkok and Washington, as the Americans called for a swift return to democracy and the Thai generals resisted.
泰國2014年的軍事政變導致曼谷和華盛頓之間的關係惡化，因爲美國人呼籲泰國迅速恢復民主體制，而泰國的將軍們堅決反對。
In 2015, Thailand announced the purchase of Chinese submarines.
2015年，泰國宣佈購買中國潛艇。
Najib Razak, the prime minister of Malaysia, has also looked to Beijing for succour as he has attempted to fend off corruption investigations in the west.
馬來西亞總理納吉布.拉扎克(Najib Razak)也尋求北京方面的幫助，他在努力應對西方對其展開的腐敗調查。
Faced with all these setbacks in Southeast Asia, the US will be on the lookout for some new diplomatic and strategic opportunities.
由於在東南亞面臨這些挫折，美國將會尋找新的外交和戰略機遇。
One country that seems certain to continue to push back against Chinese dominance of the region is Vietnam.
越南看起來肯定會繼續反對中國在亞太地區佔據主導地位。
This month, the USS Frank Cable and the USS John S McCain became the first two American warships to visit the Vietnamese naval base of Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the Vietnam war in 1975.
本月，弗蘭克.凱布爾號(USS Frank Cable)和約翰.S.麥凱恩號(USS John SMcCain)停靠越南金蘭灣(Cam Ranh Bay)海軍基地，這是自1975年越南戰爭結束以來首次訪問該基地的兩艘美國軍艦。
At the height of that war, Cam Ranh Bay served as a crucial base for both the US Navy and Air Force in the fight against North Vietnam.
在越戰打得最激烈的時期，金蘭灣成爲美國海軍和空軍打擊北越的關鍵基地。
It is a historic irony, and a sign of how the rise of China is changing Asia, that Vietnam could yet invite the US military back to Cam Ranh Bay — this time as an ally, not an enemy.
越南邀請美國軍方重回金蘭灣——這次是作爲盟友而非敵人——具有歷史諷刺意義，也表明了中國崛起是如何改變亞洲的。
