美國消費互聯網公司能否在中國做大
Can a US consumer internet company ever make it big in China? That question, which has long dogged Silicon Valley, is starting to take on the urgency of a strategic imperative.
美國的消費互聯網公司能否在中國做大？這個長期困擾硅谷的問題正開始變成一項緊迫的戰略任務。
It isn’t just that China is a juicy target in its own right. There is a risk to ceding ground to emerging Chinese rivals in their booming home market at a time when those companies are taking their first, tentative steps towards going global. US companies, themselves accustomed to using dominance of a massive domestic market as a launch pad to take on the world, should understand what’s at stake.
中國市場本身並非一個誘人的目標。風險在於，美國公司的市場份額可能被中國蓬勃發展的國內市場上的新興本土競爭對手奪走，後者剛開始邁出走向全球的嘗試性步伐。美國公司本身習慣於利用巨大國內市場的主導地位作爲走向世界的跳板，他們應理解其中的利害。
Uber and Airbnb, the yin and yang of the sharing economy, are the latest to try their luck. The ride-hailing app that likes to batter down doors is in a pitched battle with a Chinese local competitor backed by two of those aspiring global players, Tencent and Alibaba. Airbnb, which prefers a less confrontational approach, this week lined upsome influential allies as it seeks its own way in.
打車應用優步(Uber)和空中食宿(Airbnb)是共享經濟的“陰陽”兩面，它們是最新兩家想碰碰運氣的公司。喜歡直接破門而入的Uber正與中國一家本土競爭對手較勁，後者得到中國兩家志向遠大的全球競爭者騰訊(Tencent)和阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的支持。而喜歡採用對抗性不那麼強的策略的Airbnb最近拉到一些頗具影響力的盟友，希望用自己的方式進軍中國。
“Localisation” figures prominently in both companies’ game plans. Having the right management and local backers and supporters certainly helps. Knowing when to adapt a successful global formula will also be key. The failure in China of eBay, which was outflanked by Alibaba’s free listings for buyers and its introduction of a payment service to reduce fraud risks, is still a case study in how an adaptable local rival can come out on top.
這兩家公司的通盤計劃都把“本地化”放在突出位置。具備合適的管理層和本地後臺及支持者，肯定會有所幫助。知道何時修改全球成功方程式也很關鍵。eBay在中國的失利，仍是說明適應性強的本地競爭對手能夠勝出的典型案例。阿里巴巴讓買家免費展示商品，並引入支付服務以降低欺詐風險，這些都比eBay高明一些。
Uber and Airbnb at least have one advantage over companies like Google and Yahoo, which failed before them: they aren’t directly involved in the online media and communications businesses, making them less obviously targets of an authoritarian state.
Uber和Airbnb至少具備一個相對於谷歌(Google)和雅虎(Yahoo)等公司的優勢，後兩者已在中國折戟：Uber和Airbnb不直接涉足在線媒體和通信業務，這讓它們不那麼容易成爲威權政府瞄準的目標。
But any successful internet business is to some extent a challenge to the status quo. China’s latest gesture towards online control — to station police officers physically inside internet companies — is an indication of the outsized influence that the successful internet companies can have, whatever corner of the market they are in.
然而，任何成功的互聯網公司在一定程度上都是對現狀的挑戰。中國控制網絡的最新姿態（警察進駐互聯網公司辦公地點）表明，成功的互聯網公司可能會具備過大的影響力，無論它們處於哪個市場縫隙。
One reason is the amount and range of the data they hold. Amassing a giant database about the movements of a nation’s citizens is a key asset. And that is likely to be only a starting point, as the winning platforms reach into more areas of online (and, increasingly, offline) life.
一個原因是它們持有的數據的規模和範圍。有關一國公民活動的巨大數據庫是一項關鍵資產。隨着各個勝出的平臺把觸角伸入更多在線（以及越來越多的線下）生活領域，這可能還只是一個開始。
Holding the data locally might give authorities greater confidence that they can tap into it when they need: Uber has data centres for its operations inside China. But there is still a question about whether a foreign company could ever be trusted to be as compliant as a local competitor.
在本土保管這些數據，可能會讓當局更有信心認爲，他們能夠在需要時利用這些數據：Uber在華業務設有境內數據中心。但仍有一個問題：能否相信一家外國公司像本土競爭對手那樣依從？
Another factor that weighs on foreign players is the way that competition tends to evolve in internet markets. Many turn into winner-takes-all affairs, with the companies that come out on top ending up as centres of power in their own right.
另一個不利於外國公司的因素是互聯網市場的競爭演變方式。很多競爭搞到最後成了“贏者通吃”，拔得頭籌的公司變成實力中心。
The immodest ambitions of a company like Uber highlight what is at stake. It aspires to become an essential part of the infrastructure of any big city, not only supplying personal transport but also handling logistics. Local governments in China may resist foreign control of something so essential, even if Uber promises to help solve some of the problems caused by swelling personal car ownership for China’s polluted and traffic-clogged cities.
Uber這種懷有巨大雄心的公司突顯了其中的風險。它渴望成爲所有大城市不可或缺的基礎設施的一部分，不僅提供個人交通，還要染指物流。中國地方政府可能反對外國公司控制如此關鍵的基礎設施，即便Uber承諾幫助中國污染嚴重且交通擁堵的城市解決私人汽車保有量增加所帶來的一些問題。
A key question now will be how far the latest US aspirants are prepared to go to become truly “local” to overcome reservations like these. Uber’s funding arrangements for China are the most intriguing. It already has Chinese investors and is now trying to close a funding round for a separate Chinese unit, bringing outside investors directly into the business.
現在的一個關鍵問題在於，最新一批有志進軍中國市場的美國公司，準備在多大程度上變得真正“本地化”，以消除中國方面的疑慮。Uber在中國的融資安排最耐人尋味。該公司已擁有中方投資者，現在正試圖爲另一家在華公司搞定一輪融資，讓外部投資者直接投資Uber的這塊在華業務。
An Uber spokesperson says the company is also contemplating a local initial public offering, some time in the future, for its Chinese arm, though there are no plans for a one at the moment.
Uber發言人表示，該公司還在考慮未來將其在華業務在中國國內上市，儘管目前還沒有這方面的計劃。
Given its huge need for capital and the particularly cut-throat nature of the Chinese taxi app wars, local investors will be useful. A structure like this would also give Uber more flexibility to adapt later — for instance by bringing in local partners or even, if forced, to reduce its stake in the Chinese venture.
鑑於巨大的資本需求以及中國打車應用大戰尤爲激烈，引入本土投資者將是有幫助的。這種結構還將賦予Uber更大靈活性，便於以後調整，例如引入本土合作伙伴，或者甚至（在被迫的情況下）減持在華業務的股權。
But for any US internet company, staying in the driving seat will be a priority. Yahoo’s decision to fold its struggling Chinese business into Alibaba a decade ago turned into one of the most successful internet investments ever made. But now, as it gets ready to spin out what’s left of that minority stake, Yahoo’s diminished role is all too obvious. That is a fate its successors will be working hard to avoid.
但對於任何一家美國互聯網公司而言，保持控制權將是優先任務。雅虎10年前決定將其步履維艱的中國業務併入阿里巴巴，而那個決定結果成爲史上最成功的互聯網投資之一。但如今，在雅虎準備脫手這部分少數股權的剩餘股權之際，雅虎的地位下降表露無遺。這是後來者要努力避免的命運。
