經濟廣角:中國消費者的需求究竟有多大?

【英文原文】

QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER CHINA'S CONSUMER POWER
nyone scanning recent business headlines in China would not recognise the country where people supposedly save and never spend. In September, China Mobile's customer base crossed the half-billion mark – a powerful symbol of the awesome size of the nation's consumer market.

China has also become the biggest vehicle market in the world this year. Car sales expanded by 78 per cent last month from a year ago. Over the National Day holiday in early October, retailers reported a rush for large flat-screen televisions.

Throughout the biggest external crisis to hit the Chinese economy in at least a decade, one of the most surprising features has been the apparent strength of consumer demand. The headline figure for retail sales has increased in real terms by 16.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2009 – at least two percentage points faster than last year before the crisis.

With Beijing insisting it wants to shift its economic model towards greater domestic demand, and with many foreign governments urging China to rely less on exports, consumer spending is central to the post-crisis fate of both the Chinese and global economies.

The buoyant retail figures raise three questions. Is the increase real? Is it sustainable? And does it reflect a genuine rebalancing of the economy away from investment and exports?

While officials trumpeted the latest jump in retail sales yesterday, economists are sceptical of the figures. One problem is that official National Bureau of Statistics data include some government purchases, which are bound to have surged this year due to aggressive stimulus spending.

Government economists have played down the idea of booming consumer demand. A central bank report in August said urban residents' “impressions” about their incomes were at the lowest level since 1999. Meanwhile, Xu Xianchun, a vice-commissioner of the statistics bureau, published an article saying real consumption growth was well below the headline rate.

Even if the growth rate has been exaggerated, there is plenty of evidence from specific industries of stronger consumer demand, especially in rural areas.

“Rural residents have much more income than they did when I opened this store in 2003,” says Ge Zhongqiang, who runs an electronics shop in Xinba, a village in Jiangsu province. “They are spending a lot more on home appliances.”

Some people doubt whether rising demand can be sustained, pointing to several one-off incentives. Rural people have been offered subsidies to buy “white goods”, and taxes on small cars have been cut. JD Power, the auto consultancy, thinks the car-sale growth rate will fall sharply to 2-3 per cent next year.

Less temporary forces are at work, however. In recent years, the government has raised spending on health and education in the countryside, and is starting to introduce rural pensions.

Urban demand, meanwhile, is being boosted as millions move into the $4,000-$6,000 income bracket and shift from spending only on essentials to being able to afford more expensive items such as cars.

Chinese officials say such consumer demand is helping to rebalance the economy away from exports. They point to the fact that the current account surplus as a proportion of gross domestic product is likely to be much lower this year.

However, the latest data show that public investment has been the driving force behind the recent rebound. Yasheng Huang, an expert on China's economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says that before the government's stimulus spending, consumption accounted for only about 33 per cent of GDP, the lowest among the world's leading economies.

By increasing social spending, the leadership has started to repair some of the damage from the 1990s, when rural incomes barely grew. “But there is far too much emphasis on social transfers and not enough on the economic liberalisation that will really raise incomes,” says Prof Huang. And, he adds, China has still to get over its “investment fetish”.

【中文譯文】

一眼近期中國商業新聞的頭條，人們會認不出這個國家，因爲中國人理應是隻會儲蓄、從不消費的。9月份，中國移動(China Mobile)用戶數突破5億大關，這是一個強有力的象徵，凸顯中國消費者市場令人敬畏的巨大規模。

今年，中國還已成爲全球最大的汽車市場。上月汽車銷量比去年同期增加78%。據零售商介紹，在10月初的國慶黃金週，顧客曾踊躍購買大屏幕平板電視機。

在至少10年來最大外部危機衝擊中國經濟的整個期間，最令人意外的現象之一是，中國的消費者需求明顯保持強勁。在2009年頭三個季度，整體零售額按實值計算增長了16.5%，比去年危機爆發之前至少高出兩個百分點。

目前中國政府堅稱，它希望把經濟增長模式轉向更大的國內需求，而許多外國政府也敦促中國減輕對出口的依賴。在此之際，對中國乃至全球經濟在危機過後的命運來說，消費者支出都是十分關鍵的。

高漲的零售數據帶來三個問題。這種增長是真實的嗎？它能夠持續嗎？它是否反應了真正的經濟平衡調整，即減輕對投資和出口的依賴？

儘管官員們昨日對零售數據再次攀升大肆宣揚，但經濟學家們對相關數據表示懷疑。問題之一是，中國國家統計局(National Bureau of Statistics)的官方數據中，包括一些政府部門的採購，由於大力度的刺激支出，這方面的採購今年肯定會激增。

若干政府經濟學家對消費者需求旺盛的說法予以淡化。8月份中國央行在一份報告中表示，城市居民對自己收入的“感受”處於1999年以來的最低水平。與此同時，國家統計局副局長許憲春撰文指出，實際消費增長遠低於整體增長率。

即使增長率被誇大，但仍有來自特定行業的充分證據表明，消費者需求更強了，尤其是在農村地區。

“與我2003年開設這家店的時候相比，農村居民的收入現在要高得多，”在江蘇省新壩村開有一家電子產品商店的葛忠強（音譯）表示。“他們在家用電器上的支出增加了很多。”

對於需求上升能否持續，有些人表示懷疑。他們指出，政府出臺了多項一次性的鼓勵消費措施，包括向農村居民提供補貼，鼓勵他們購買“白色家電”，以及減免小排量汽車的購置稅。汽車業諮詢公司JD Power認爲，明年中國汽車銷量增幅將大幅降至2%到3%。

不過，更爲持久的力量也在發揮作用。近年來，中國政府增加了在農村地區的醫療和教育支出，並且正開始建立農村養老金制度。

與此同時，隨着數以百萬計的城市居民進入4000至6000美元的收入檔次，隨着他們的消費習慣從只買必需品轉向購買汽車等比較昂貴的物品，中國城市的消費者需求正得到提振。

中國官員表示，這種消費者需求正幫助中國經濟進行調整，減輕對出口的依賴。他們指出這樣一個事實，即中國今年經常賬戶盈餘佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例，很可能會大幅降低。

不過，最新數據顯示，公共投資是近期反彈的主要推動力量。美國麻省理工學院(MIT)的中國經濟專家黃亞生(Yasheng Huang)表示，在政府刺激支出出臺之前，消費僅佔中國GDP的約33%，在全球主要經濟體中是最低的。

中國領導層通過增加社會性支出，已開始修復上世紀90年代留下的一些損害，當時，農村收入幾乎沒有增長。“但是，對社會性轉移的注重太大了，而對真正能夠提高收入的經濟自由化不夠重視，”黃亞生表示。還有，他補充說，中國仍必須擺脫“投資迷戀”。