英国退欧,特朗普以及无能的一代

I didn’t want Brexit, but I assumed the Brexiters had a plan. I didn’t think Donald Trump had a plan, but I assumed the Republicans did. They didn’t. Whether you like these people or not, the question is: why are they incompetent?

我不希望英国退欧，但我曾假定退欧派胸有成竹。我不认为唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有什么打算，但我以为共和党心中有数。结果他们都没有。无论你是否喜欢这些人，问题是：他们为什么如此无能？

It seems that the Brexiters really thought the EU would just bow to their demands; that they never imagined the Irish border might be a problem. Even now, the cabinet still hasn’t discussed what sort of Brexit it wants. Last week’s deal with the EU may leave the UK tracking Irish regulations for ever (or as Brexiters call it, “freedom”).

退欧派似乎真的以为欧盟会屈服于他们的要求；他们似乎也从没想过爱尔兰边境可能成为麻烦。即使现在，英国内阁仍然没有讨论出它想要的退欧方案。上上周英国与欧盟签署的“离婚协议”可能会让英国永远跟踪爱尔兰的监管制度（而退欧派称之为“自由”）。

In the US, when Republicans finally got their chance to abolish Obamacare, it turned out they had spent seven years not preparing an alternative. Much of their tax bill got handwritten overnight by lobbyists. And Russiagate’s key characteristic is amateurism. Mike Flynn and others didn’t declare obvious contacts with foreign officials, assuming nobody would notice. Trump appeared to incriminate himself by tweeting that he knew Flynn broke the law, but then his lawyer said he’d written the tweet. Richard Nixon’s downfall was not his crime but his cover-up; this time there’s hardly any cover-up. The only comparable folly in recent US-UK history is the Iraq war. So what explains this incompetence?

在美国，当共和党终于有机会废除奥巴马医改(Obamacare)时，事实却显示他们过去七年一直没有准备替代方案。他们税改法案的大部分是游说者们连夜写出来的。而“通俄门”的关键特征是业余。迈克尔?弗林(Michael Flynn)和其他人并没有声明自己与外国官员的明显接触，以为没人会注意到。特朗普发推文称他知道弗林触犯了法律，似乎使自己牵连其中，但随后他的律师说是自己写的这条推文。理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)下台不是因为他的罪行，而是他试图掩盖罪行；而这一次几乎没有任何遮掩。美英近期历史中唯一能与此相提并论的蠢事是伊拉克战争。那么如何解释这种无能呢？

It’s useful here to recall the contrast — often drawn in the US in the 1990s — between the “greatest generation” who fought the second world war, and the baby boomers. From the 1940s until the 1990s, most politicians in both countries were men who had fought a world war. That experience shaped them. Harold Macmillan, British prime minister from 1957 to 1963, had been wounded five times in the first world war. Once, after being hit in the knee and pelvis, he lay in a shell hole for 12 hours, medicating himself with morphine, playing dead when Germans came near, and reading Aeschylus in the original Greek, writes Richard Davenport-Hines in An English Affair.

这里有必要回忆一下参加过二战的“最伟大的一代”和婴儿潮一代之间的对比，这是上世纪90年代在美国经常做的对比。从上世纪40年代到90年代，英美两国多数政客都是曾参加过世界大战的男性。这段经历塑造了他们。在1957年至1963年期间担任英国首相的哈罗德?麦克米伦(Harold Macmillan)在一战中五次负伤。根据理查德?达文波特-海因斯(Richard Davenport-Hines)在《英国事件》(An English Affair)所写，麦克米伦曾经有一次膝盖和盆骨被击中，在炮弹坑里躺了12个小时，期间他给自己使用吗啡，当德国人靠近时装死，读埃斯库罗斯（Aeschylus，埃斯库罗斯是古希腊悲剧诗人——编者注）的希腊语原版著作。

Macmillan reflected much later that posh officers such as himself, leading working-class troops, “learnt for the first time how to?.?.?.?feel at home with a whole class with whom we could not have come into contact in any other way”. In addition, he was responsible for their lives. No wonder he never afterwards shook the “inside feeling that something awful and unknown was about to happen”. As prime minister, writes Davenport-Hines, he sometimes spent weekends hiding in bed.

麦克米伦在很久后表示，像他本人这样领导工人阶级队伍的出身上流社会的军官，“第一次学到了如何……与我们本来绝不可能接触到的一整个阶级自在相处”。此外，他还要对他们的生命负责。难怪他之后再也没能摆脱掉“一些可怕和未知的事情即将发生的内心感受”。达文波特-海因斯写道，当首相时，有时他整个周末都躲在床上。

You could tell similar stories about Clement Attlee (badly wounded in Iraq in the first world war, prime minister 1945-1951), John F Kennedy and George HW Bush. In 1975, 81 per cent of US senators were military veterans, says the Pew Research Center. Experience of war doesn’t guarantee seriousness (see Flynn) but it helps.

你可以讲出关于克莱门特?艾德礼(Clement Attlee)、约翰?F?肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)以及老布什(George HW Bush)的类似故事。艾德礼1945年至1951年担任英国首相，一战时他在伊拉克身受重伤。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)表示，1975年美国参议员中81%的人都是退伍老兵。参战经历并不一定确保他们严谨尽责（参照弗林），但确实有帮助。

Other 20th-century leaders of these countries — Lyndon B Johnson, Bill Clinton, John Major — had a different visceral experience: poverty. They too knew in their bones that government mattered.

英美两国其他的20世纪领导人——林登?B?约翰逊(Lyndon B. Johnson)、比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)、约翰?梅杰(John Major)——则有另一种不同的深切经历：贫穷。他们也打骨子里清楚地知道政府的重要性。

But both countries have now fallen into the hands of well-off baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964 — the luckiest members of the luckiest generation in history. These people had no formative experiences, only TV shows. They never expected anything awful or unknown to happen. They went into politics mostly for kicks. The paradigmatic shift was from George HW Bush (born 1924) to his son (born 1946). Like Trump, Bush Jr spent much of his early presidency on vacation. Then 9/11 jolted him into frenzied activity: the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

但是两国如今落到了条件优渥的婴儿潮一代（1946年至1964年之间出生）的政客手中，他们是历史上最幸运的一代人中最幸运的成员。这些人没有形成其责任感的成长经历，影响他们的只有电视节目。他们从不会预想可怕或未知的事情会发生。他们从政主要是追求刺激。典型转变是从老布什（1924年出生）到他的儿子小布什（1946年出生）。和特朗普一样，小布什总统任期初期的大量时间都在度假。之后的9?11事件使他陷入疯狂行动中：阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争。

It’s often said that today’s politicians have no experience outside politics, but they do. Bush Jr ran a baseball club, Boris Johnson wrote funny columns, and Trump played a successful businessman on television. Along the way they learnt a skill their predecessors mostly lacked: performing on mass media.

人们常说，如今的政客除了政治外没有任何经验，但其实他们有。小布什经营过棒球俱乐部，鲍里斯?约翰逊(Boris Johnson)写过有趣的专栏，特朗普在电视上扮演过成功商人。他们在这一路上学到了前辈通常缺乏的技巧：在大众媒体上表演。

Then came Populism, which validated amateurism. No need for “experts” — anyone could do the job. Thoughtful people who couldn’t bellow simplifications on TV drifted out of politics.

之后民粹主义崛起，让业余变得名正言顺。不需要“专家”——任何人都可以胜任。做不到在电视上大声喊出简单口号的有识之士，退出了政治圈。

Populism polarised. So the new governments selected people for their loyalty to the cause. Theresa May, as prime minister, had to give the “three Brexiteers”, Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox, jobs for which nothing in their experience had prepared them. Days after Trump’s election, his daughter Ivanka seized control of a transition meeting, praised Flynn’s “amazing loyalty”, and asked him, “General, what job do you want?” This month in Alabama’s senate race, Trump endorsed another loyalist: alleged paedophile Roy Moore.

民粹主义呈现两极化。因此，新政府选人是根据他们的忠诚。英国首相特里萨?梅(Theresa May)不得不让约翰逊、戴维?戴维斯(David Davis)和亚姆?福克斯(Liam Fox)“退欧三剑客”担任他们没有任何经验的职位。在特朗普当选后几天，他的女儿伊万卡(Ivanka)就掌握了对过渡团队的控制，称赞弗林“不可思议的忠诚”，并且问他“将军，你想要什么职位？”本月在阿拉巴马州参议员竞选中，特朗普为另一名效忠者背书：涉嫌恋童癖的罗伊?摩尔(Roy Moore)。

So we’re left with an insouciant, inexperienced political class of mostly ageing white men. Thankfully, that will soon change. Everyone raised under baby-boomer rule has learnt that awful and unknown things can happen anytime. Brexit and Trump have mobilised a generation of young people, taught them that government matters, and shown that not screwing up is a lofty goal. Unprecedented numbers of US women — most of them born post boom — are now seeking election at every political level. In the Senate, there are about 10 times more female candidates than in 2014. They will have a generation’s worth of mess to clean up.

所以我们现在面对着这群大多由年迈的白人男性组成的漫不经心、缺乏经验的政治阶层。谢天谢地，这种情况很快就会改变。所有在婴儿潮一代领导人统治下成长起来的人们都知道，可怕和未知的事情随时可能发生。英国退欧和特朗普激发了年轻的一代，让他们明白政府很重要，向他们展示了不搞砸事情是一个远大的目标。如今在各个政治层面上寻求参选的美国女性达到了前所未有的人数，她们大多数人出生在婴儿潮之后。在参议院，女性候选人的数量是2014年的10倍左右。他们将要清理一代人的烂摊子。