特朗普的中国战略:贸易战还是竞赛?

Donald Trump has revealed a national security strategy with a heavy emphasis on what his administration portrays as an existential economic competition with China.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)公布了自己的国家安全战略，其中重点强调了其领导的政府描绘的与中国之间关乎存亡的经济竞争。

In a speech launching it on Monday the US president also made clear he had only one outcome in mind. “We are declaring that America is in the game and America is going to win,” he said.

在周一发布上述战略的演讲中，美国总统还明确表示，他只牢记一个结果。他说：“我们宣布美国加入了这场竞赛，美国将赢得胜利。”

Parse the clues in the new strategy, however, and it looks like the recipe for a potentially damaging trade war between the world’s two largest economies, rather than a game. Yet also in there are messages meant to assuage the concerns of those who fear that Mr Trump is out to blow up the international order.

然而，分析这一新战略中的种种暗示可以得出，它似乎将给世界最大两个经济体带来一场具有潜在破坏性的贸易战，而非一场竞赛。但这一新战略中也存在一些信号，意在缓解担心特朗普将破坏国际秩序的人士的担忧。

Here come the tariffs?.?.?.

关税来了……

For most of the past year the Trump administration has been promising more tough action on trade than it has been able to deliver as the president’s campaign promises have quickly confronted real world complexities and consequences.

过去一年大部分时间，随着总统的竞选承诺迅速遭遇现实世界的种种复杂性和后果，特朗普政府虽然一直承诺在贸易问题上采取更多强硬行动，实际上却没能做到。

But that may be about to change. One of the key promises the new document makes is to deliver tougher enforcement of trade violations by economic rivals such as China, which amounts to code for applying punitive tariffs.

但上述情况或许即将改变。这份新文件作出的关键承诺之一，是将对中国等经济竞争对手的贸易违规行为采取更严格的强制措施，相当于暗示要征收惩罚性关税。

In the pipeline and facing deadlines in the coming weeks are a half dozen different ways in which the Trump administration could apply new tariffs on goods from China and other rivals.

正在准备中且在未来几周面临截止期限的是六项不同的调查，特朗普政府或将借此对来自中国等竞争对手的商品征收额外关税。

Trade experts in Washington believe the conclusion of an investigation into China’s intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer policies is near.

华盛顿的贸易专家认为，对中国的知识产权盗窃和强制技术转让政策的调查已经接近尾声。

Facing deadlines in January are two separate national security investigations into imports of aluminium and steel that are expected to result in a mix of new tariffs and quotas.

将于明年1月截止的分别针对铝和钢材进口的两项国家安全调查，预计将导致新的关税和配额组合惩罚。

Also looming are presidential decisions on special “safeguard” investigations into imports of solar cells from China and washing machines made by South Korea’s LG and Samsung. A separate probe of imports of aluminium sheeting from China is getting under way and seems destined to lead to tariffs with the US commerce department having taken the rare step of bringing the complaint — making it plaintiff, prosecutor and judge all in one.

对从中国进口的太阳能电池和韩国LG、三星(Samsung)制造的洗衣机进行的特别“安全保障”调查，也即将迎来美国总统的决定。另一项针对从中国进口铝板的调查正在进行中，而且似乎注定将导致提高关税，原因是美国商务部此次罕见地亲自提起诉讼——使其集原告、检察官和法官三重身份于一身。

Brace yourself for more scrutiny of Chinese investment and the new IP wars

准备好迎接更多针对中国投资的审查和新的知识产权战争

The new document places a large emphasis on the importance of US intellectual property and introduces the idea of a “national security innovation base” comprised of everything from academia to tech companies.

新文件着重强调了美国知识产权的重要性，并引入“国家安全创新基础”的理念——从学术界到科技公司无所不包。

“The genius of creative Americans, and the free system that enables them, is critical to American security and prosperity,” it declares.

文件宣称：“具有创造性的美国人的天赋以及造就他们的自由制度，对美国的安全与繁荣至关重要。”

One way it proposes to protect that innovation base is strengthening the role of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or Cfius. The Trump administration has endorsed proposed bipartisan legislation that would expand the remit of Cfius, an inter-agency committee that reviews US acquisitions by foreign investors for potential national security threats, to overseas joint ventures involving US companies. Entering such joint ventures has long been part of doing business in China for many US companies that also are often forced to hand over important technologies to their local partners.

为保护其创新基础，美国提出了一项举措，即强化美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)的作用。特朗普政府已经支持两党的立法提案，该法案将扩大美国外国投资委员会的职权范围至涉及美国公司的海外合资企业，该委员会是一个机构间委员会，目前负责审查外国投资者在美国的收购行为是否会威胁到美国的国家安全。长久以来，很多美国公司都是通过设立合资企业在中国做生意，也时常被迫将重要的技术转移给当地的合作伙伴。

Among the other measures floated in the new strategy document is restrictions on foreign students from “designated countries” who study science, engineering or other technology-related fields in the US. The goal: “To reduce economic theft by non-traditional intelligence collectors.”

新战略文件中提出的其他举措还包括对来自“特定国家”、在美国学习科学、工程或其他技术领域学科的海外学生施加限制。目标是：“减少非传统情报收集者实施的经济盗窃。”

Trump may be out to reform the multilateral system rather than blow it up

特朗普也许是想改革多边体系，而不是要搞砸它

One of the biggest fears among policymakers that Mr Trump has helped unleash since he arrived on the global scene is that he is out to blow up the multilateral system that has helped preserve a relative economic peace for the past 70 years. Yet what emerged on Monday may offer some comfort.

自从特朗普进入全球视野以来，给政策制定者们带来的最大担忧之一，就是他执意要摧毁过去70年来维持着一种相对经济和平的多边体系。然而周一的这份战略文件可能会令人们稍感安慰。

It is unclear how much standing one should give a policy document when it comes from a White House led by a notoriously erratic and instinctual president. But the new national security strategy at least foresees a role for the multilateral system, albeit one reformed to better serve the US.

目前还不清楚，对于一份由一个出了名地反复无常、靠直觉行事的总统领导的白宫撰写的政策文件，人们应该给予多少支持。但这份新的国家安全战略至少预想了多边体系的作用，尽管其设想的是一个改革后更好地为美国服务的多边体系。

“That economic system continues to serve our interests,” the authors of the new strategy write. “But it must be reformed to help American workers prosper, protect our innovation, and reflect the principles upon which that system was founded. Trading partners and international institutions can do more to address trade imbalances and adhere to and enforce the rules of the order.”

“这一经济体系继续服务于我们的利益，”新战略的制定者们这样写道。“但它必须经过改革，以造福于美国的工人们，保护我们的创新成果，并体现作为该体系基础的原则。贸易伙伴与国际机构可以采取更多行动来解决贸易不平衡问题，遵守并执行秩序规则。”

They also call for the US to pursue its economic battles against countries such as China with the help of allies. “The US will engage industrialised democracies and other like-minded states to defend against the economic aggression, in all its forms, that threatens our common prosperity and security,” administration officials declare.

他们还呼吁美国联合其盟友与中国等国家打经济战。“美国将与工业化的民主国家及其他志同道合的国家联合起来，抵抗一切威胁到我们共同繁荣与安全的经济侵略，”美国的政府官员们声称。

The first sign of that strategy emerged on the sidelines of a World Trade Organisation meeting last week when the US, EU and Japan announced they would work together on issues related to industrial overcapacity and forced technology transfers.

在上周世界贸易组织(WTO)的一次会议上，这一战略初现端倪，美国、欧盟(EU)和日本在会议间隙宣称，他们将共同应对与工业产能过剩及强制性技术转移相关的一系列问题。

The question now is how long any such alliance will last, and if it will weather what increasingly looks like a brewing trade war.

现在的问题是，这种结盟会维持多久，以及这能否抵御一场看起来蓄势待发的贸易战。