特朗普顾问淡化美中贸易战可能性
Advisers to president-elect Donald Trump have already begun playing down the prospect of a full-blown US trade war with China.
美国当选总统唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的顾问们已经在着手淡化美中发生全面贸易战的可能性。
Amid concern that a new era of US protectionism would have damaging consequences for the global economy.
人们担心，美国步入新的贸易保护主义时代会对全球经济造成破坏性影响。
Indeed, some analysts wonder whether the tough trade promises made on the campaign trail may take a back seat as Mr Trump focuses on tax cuts and an infrastructure programme designed to boost US growth, the prospect of which has buoyed markets since Tuesday’s election.
事实上，部分分析人士在想，特朗普会不会把竞选过程中作出的强硬贸易承诺放在次要位置上，而集中精力推行减税和旨在促进美国经济增长的基建计划——自上周二美国大选以来，这种可能性对市场起到了提振作用。
There aren’t going to be trade wars, Wilbur Ross, the New York investor and Trump adviser, told US media last week.
特朗普的顾问、纽约投资人士威尔伯.罗斯(Wilbur Ross)上周向美国媒体表示：不会发生贸易战的。
Mr Ross argues that Mr Trump’s widely-quoted campaign threat to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports —
特朗普曾在竞选过程中威胁称，要对从中国进口的商品征收税率为45%的关税。
Seized on by economists as the potential trigger for a trade war with Beijing — has been misunderstood and amounts only to negotiating tactics.
经济学家们抓住这句话不放，称此举可能引发与中国的贸易战。对此，罗斯辩称道，人们误解了特朗普这句被广泛援引的话，它只能算是谈判的战术。
Such a figure would be dependent on a finding that China’s currency, the renminbi, was undervalued by 45 per cent, Mr Ross says.
罗斯表示，这一数字可能是基于一项认为人民币汇率被低估了45%的研究结果。
The International Monetary Fund has called the RMB fairly valued while US officials point out any recent intervention by Beijing in currency markets has been designed to slow a market-driven decline, arguably to the US’s benefit.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)已表示，人民币的估值是合理的。美国官员也指出，中国政府最近对汇市作出的任何干预，都旨在延缓一轮由市场驱动的人民币贬值，这可以说是对美国有益的。
While escalation to a full trade war is in doubt, this does not mean a Trump administration is planning to be soft with China.
虽然升级为全面贸易战的前景存疑，但这并不意味着特朗普政府打算对华采取温和立场。
Mr Trump has promised to direct his Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator within his first 100 days, something the outgoing President Barack Obama avoided doing for fear of provoking Beijing.
特朗普承诺，要在上任百日内指示美国财政部将中国列为汇率操纵国。由于担心激怒北京方面，目前即将卸任的美国总统巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)过去一直没有这么做。
Although such a move would be largely symbolic and carry few immediate trade consequences this would almost certainly incite an aggressive reaction from China, rapidly escalating bilateral tensions, says Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China expert now at Cornell University.
曾任IMF中国部专家、如今在康奈尔大学(Cornell University)任教的埃斯瓦尔.普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示，虽然此类举措在很大程度上将是象征性的、对贸易几乎没有什么即刻影响，但这么做几乎肯定会引发中国的强硬反应，迅速加剧双方之间的紧张态势。
Mr Trump would undoubtedly bring high-profile cases against China at the World Trade Organisation and impose steep anti-dumping tariffs against steel and other Chinese imports, much as the Obama administration has.
特朗普无疑会在世界贸易组织(WTO)对华发起高调的诉讼，对钢材和其他从中国进口的商品征收高额反倾销税——这很像奥巴马政府已经采取的做法。
His 100-day plans calls for his administration to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.
特朗普的百日计划要求其政府甄别出一切对美国劳动者造成不公平影响的外国贸易不当行为，并依据美国及国际法律动用各种手段立刻扫灭这些不当行为。
Mr Trump could also toughen foreign investment rules and the national security-focused review process conducted by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS).
特朗普还可能收紧外国投资规定和由美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)开展的、聚焦于国家安全的审查流程。
China has long complained the current system discriminates against its companies.
长时间来，中国一直抱怨美国现行制度歧视中国企业。
Yet some see Mr Trump embracing congressional calls to broaden CFIUS’s remit to add a net economic benefit test or other strategic considerations in a move that could block more Chinese investments in the US.
不过，有些人认为特朗普会对国会扩大CFIUS职责的呼声采取支持态度。美国国会呼吁在CFIUS的审查流程中增添一项净经济效益考察或者其他战略考量，此举可能会封杀更多的中国对美投资。
But such a step would hit part of the economic relationship growing in the US’s favour.
但这样的举动将对日益有利于美国的经济往来造成部分冲击。
According to a new study by the Rhodium Group, a research firm, cumulative US direct investment in China between 1990 and 2015 reached $228bn.
研究机构荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)的一项新研究显示，1990年至2015年间，美国对华直接投资累计达2280亿美元。
The Chinese equivalent into the US was worth $64bn.
而中国对美的同类投资为640亿美元。
But this year alone Chinese FDI into the US is poised to hit a record $30bn, according to Rhodium, and anything disturbing that would hit American workers.
但荣鼎咨询的数据显示，仅今年一年中国对美的直接投资就将达到创纪录的300亿美元，任何干扰这一趋势的举措都将对美国劳动者造成冲击。
What happens next will depend on who Mr Trump brings into office with him.
至于接下来会发生什么，取决于特朗普会任命谁进入他的政府。
Dan DiMicco, the former chief executive of steel company Nucor and a longtime advocate of a tougher US line on China, is the point person on trade in Mr Trump’s transition team.
在特朗普的过渡班子中，贸易问题的负责人是钢铁企业纽柯(Nucor)前首席执行官、长期鼓吹美国对华采取更强硬立场的丹.迪米科(Dan DiMicco)。
Mr DiMicco, who is a candidate for both Commerce Secretary and US Trade Representative, told the FT on Saturday that any notions of a Trump administration taking a softer post-election line on trade were false rumours.
迪米科既是美国商务部长的候选人，也是美国贸易代表(US Trade Representative)的候选人。上周六，迪米科向英国《金融时报》表示，所有关于大选后上台的特朗普政府会软化其先前贸易立场的说法都是谣言。
Another campaign adviser, economist Peter Navarro, is a well-known China hawk whose 2013 film Death by China was praised by Mr Trump as an important documentary.
特朗普的另一位竞选顾问、经济学家彼得.纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)是著名的对华鹰派，特朗普曾称赞他在2013年制作的影片《致命中国》(Death by China)是一部重要的纪录片。
But Mr Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, who has taken charge of the transition, is a free trader who as governor in Indiana has travelled to China to court investment.
不过，特朗普的竞选搭档、负责过渡工作的迈克.彭斯(Mike Pence)是个主张自由贸易的人。作为印第安纳州州长，彭斯曾赴中国招商引资。
Moreover, there are already signs the Republican trade establishment is entering the fray with a former US Chamber of Commerce lobbyist, Rolf Lundberg, put in charge of the transition’s trade policy implementation.
此外，已有迹象显示共和党贸易建制派正参与进来，前美国商会(US Chamber of Commerce)游说人士罗尔夫.伦德伯格(Rolf Lundberg)就被指派负责过渡班子的贸易政策实施工作。
Given how the financial markets are reacting — which is splendid from a Trump viewpoint — I don’t think Trump’s trade team will want the trade part to spoil the [economic benefits of the] fiscal stimulus part, says Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员加里.赫夫鲍尔(Gary Hufbauer)表示：考虑到金融市场目前的反应——在特朗普看来反应相当不错——我不认为特朗普的贸易团队希望贸易这部分毁掉财政刺激那部分（带来的经济好处）。
Some in China are optimistic.
部分中国人士持乐观态度。
Most American presidential candidates don’t carry out their threats once they become president, says Li Xinchuang, head of the China Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute.
中国冶金工业规划研究院(China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute)院长李新创表示：多数美国总统候选人在当选后都不会把选举时的威胁付诸实施。
Others remain fearful, however.
但也有些人士仍然感到担忧。
In the post-Cold War era, Trump is an unprecedented protectionist, says Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
在后冷战时代，特朗普是个史无前例的贸易保护主义者。
Sooner or later his protectionism and populism will damage Sino-US trade relations.
中国人民大学(Renmin University)国际关系学教授时殷弘表示，他的保护主义和民粹主义迟早会破坏中美贸易关系。
