金價突破關鍵技術位200日移動均線

The precious metal has kicked off 2014 on a hot streak and recently jumped above a key technical indicator that bolsters the case for continued gains ahead.

黃金重新受到青睞。2014年伊始黃金需求火爆，金價最近已經突破了一項關鍵技術指標，這意味着金價未來還將繼續上漲。

Front-month gold futures on Friday jumped back above the 200-day moving average, a line that many chart watchers use as a guide to predicting long-term trends. The last time gold traded above its 200-day moving average was Feb. 11, 2013.

上週五近月交割的黃金期貨重返200日移動均線上方，許多技術指標觀察人士利用該均線判斷金價的長期走勢。上次金價處在200日移動均線上方是在2013年2月11日。

The latest streak marked only the fourth time since 1979 in which gold traded below the 200-day moving average for more than a year, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The other instances took place in the first half of 1998, October 1989 and August 1982.

據Bespoke Investment Group的數據，此前是金價自1979年以來僅第四次持續一年以上位於200日移動均線下方。其他三次分別發生在1998年的上半年，1989年10月和1982年8月。

'Gold has been acting well all year, and the fact that it has now moved above its 200-day is another good sign,' Bespoke says. 'The action around the 200-DMA over the next several days should give an indication whether this brief flirtation above will become a more permanent trend.'

Bespoke稱，黃金全年表現都不錯，現在突破200日移動均線是另一個向好跡象，未來幾天金價在200日移動均線附近的表現應會表明這次短暫突破該均線是否會變成一種長期趨勢。

The most actively traded gold contract for April delivery rose Tuesday for a 10th straight session, recently trading up 0.4% at $1,324, the highest level since Oct. 31. Stronger-than-expected data from China continued to defy expectations that the world's largest consumer of the precious metal is seeing an economic slowdown, which is giving a boost to gold prices.

週四交投最活躍的四月交割黃金期貨連續第10個交易日上漲，最近上漲0.4%至每盎司1,324美元，爲10月31日以來的最高水平。中國公佈的經濟數據強於預期，讓有關中國這一全球最大黃金消費國經濟增長正在放緩的預期不斷落空，這爲金價提供了支撐。

China attracted $10.76 billion of foreign direct investment in January--up 16.1% on year, the country's Ministry of Commerce said. Those numbers come on the heels of trade data released last week that showed an unexpected surge in both imports and exports, yet another sign of health in an economy that was predicted to slow after decades of rampant growth.

中國商務部公佈，中國1月份吸引外商直接投資107.6億美元，同比增長16.1%。而上週公佈的貿易數據顯示，中國進出口均意外飆升，也表明中國經濟非常健康。外界此前紛紛預計，在經歷了幾十年的快速增長後，中國經濟即將放緩。

Although investors often view Chinese data as prone to distortion, the upbeat reports have been enough to further fuel a rally that has seen the precious metal rise nearly 10% since the beginning of the year.

儘管投資者經常認爲中國的數據存在水分，但這些樂觀的數據足以繼續刺激金價上漲。金價自年初以來已經上漲了將近10%。

The rally has been driven by investor concerns that a flagging U.S. recovery may slow the pace at which the Federal Reserve rolls back its stimulus program. Gold is often used as a hedge against economic uncertainty and weakness in the dollar, which has been hurt by the Fed's bond buying policy.

推動金價上漲的原因是，投資者擔憂美國經濟復甦乏力或許會令美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱：美聯儲)放慢削減刺激計劃的步伐。黃金通常被用作對衝經濟波動和美元疲軟的工具，而美聯儲的債券購買計劃對美元匯率構成打壓。

Still, gold has a long way to go from recapturing recent losses incurred in recent years. Gold dropped 28% in 2013, its first drop in 13 years. The yellow metal remains down 30% from its record settle high of $1,888.70 reached in August 2011.

但若想收回最近今年丟失的陣地，黃金還有很長的路要走。金價2013年下跌28%，爲13年來首次下跌。目前金價距離2011年8月觸及的紀錄高位每盎司1,888.70美元仍低30%。

Despite the recent rally in gold and silver prices, some investors remain hesitant to get overly bullish on the precious metals.

儘管黃金和白銀價格最近上漲，一些投資者仍不願過度看漲黃金。

'While we are in no rush to buy either, we cannot ignore the technical improvement made in recent weeks,' said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners.

MKM Partners首席市場技術分析師Jonathan Krinsky稱，雖然我們並不急於買入黃金，但也不能忽視最近幾周金價技術面的改善。