美聯儲宣佈停止債券購買計劃大綱

WASHINGTON — In a series of sweeping campaigns to revive the American economy, the Federal Reserve has spent much of the last six years purchasing trillions of dollars of bonds. Now it is done.

華盛頓——在一系列推動美國經濟復甦的大手筆動作中，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)過去六年中的大量時間，都用在了購買價值數萬億美元的債券上。如今，它要收手了。

The Fed said on Wednesday that the economy no longer needed quite so much help. It is the third time since 2008 the Fed has announced such a Move, but this time officials and analysts say the decision is more likely to stick, marking an important milestone in the nation’s painfully slow recovery from the Great Recession.

美聯儲在週三表示，美國經濟不再需要這麼多幫助了。這是美聯儲自2008年以來第三次做出類似表態，但這一次，官員和分析人士稱，這一決策更有可能實施下去。在美國從大衰退(Great Recession)中緩慢復甦的痛苦過程中，這將是一座重要的里程碑。

The central bank still plans to keep short-term interest rates near zero for a “considerable time,” it said in a statement after a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee. And it said it would replace maturing bonds to keep its holdings at about $4.5 trillion.

作爲美國的中央銀行，美聯儲在一份聲明中表示，仍計劃在“相當一段時間裏”，將短期利率維持在接近零的水平。在發佈該聲明前，美聯儲負責決策的委員會舉行了一次爲期兩天的會議。美聯儲還表示將置換即將到期的債券，從而將債券持有量保持在大約4.5萬億美元（約合27.5萬億元人民幣）的水平。

The bond-buying campaign has helped to fuel one of the longest bull markets in American history. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has increased by 131 percent since the Fed started its first round of purchases in November 2008. The campaign has also helped to suppress borrowing costs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has declined from 2.96 percent to 2.32 percent over the same period, even as economic conditions have improved.

採購債券的行動幫助刺激了美國曆史上持續時間最長的牛市之一。自美聯儲2008年11月開始第一輪購買行動以來，標準普爾500股票指數(Standard & Poor’s 500)上漲了131%。購買行動也幫助抑制了借貸成本。在同一時期，十年期基準國債的收益率從2.96%降至2.32%，儘管經濟狀況已有所改善。

The impact on the rest of the economy is much harder to assess. The Fed, and its supporters, say the purchases have held down the cost of mortgage loans and corporate debt, contributing to faster job growth. Other economists dismiss the purchases as inconsequential. And some say the Fed has exacerbated economic inequalities by helping to boost financial markets while the rest of the economy languishes.

評估這些操作對整體經濟的影響，則要難得多。美聯儲及其支持者稱，債券購買壓低了抵押貸款的成本和企業債務，也推動就業實現了更快的增長。但其他一些經濟學家則認爲，債券購買的作用無關緊要。此外，還有一些人表示，美聯儲在其他經濟領域低迷之際，幫助刺激金融市場的作法，加劇了經濟不平等。

The dire predictions of the Fed’s critics, however, have clearly failed to materialize. Some Fed officials and economists warned that the bond purchases, often referred to by experts as quantitative easing, or QE, would devalue the dollar and drive up inflation. So far the opposite has happened.

但顯然，指責美聯儲的人士做出的可怕預測並未成爲現實。一些美聯儲官員和經濟學家曾警告，通常被專家稱作“量化寬鬆”（quantitative easing，簡稱QE）的債券購買行動，會導致美元貶值，擡高通貨膨脹水平。但迄今爲止，事實卻正相反。

The American economy has outperformed other developed parts of the world, helping to strengthen the dollar, while inflation has remained so sluggish that the greater worry is now whether prices are rising too slowly.

美國經濟的表現超越了世界其他發達國家，幫助美元走強，而通脹水平依然很低，以至於現在更令人擔憂的問題是，物價的上漲是否太慢了。

Kim Schoenholtz, a professor of economics at New York University, said the Fed’s bond purchases were particularly effective and important in stabilizing the financial system and stimulating the broader economy in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. But he said the impact of the purchases had diminished as conditions improved, and that it now made sense to end the program.

紐約大學(New York University)經濟學教授基姆·舍恩霍爾茨(Kim Schoenholtz)表示，在金融危機剛結束後，美聯儲購買債券的行動，對於穩定金融體系和刺激整體經濟特別有效。但他表示隨着情況的好轉，債券購買的效果減弱了，並稱現在結束該計劃是合理的。

“I applaud the Fed’s willingness to be aggressive especially early on in the crisis and it has made sense for the Fed to run a very accommodative policy,” Mr. Schoenholtz said. “But we should not be surprised that monetary policy has diminishing returns.”

“我要稱讚美聯儲，它願意大膽行動，特別是在危機早期，而且美聯儲實行非常寬鬆的政策是合理的，”舍恩霍爾茨說。“但貨幣政策產生的回報正在減少，這一點我們不應該感到驚訝。”

Mr. Schoenholtz added that the Fed’s quick and strong response helped to explain why the Fed was nearer to achieving its economic objectives than the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan, both of which are now battling to avoid deflation. On Monday, the E.C.B. disclosed the first purchases in a planned campaign to buy private-sector assets, a kind of entry-level quantitative easing. But the amount the central bank bought, just 1.7 billion euros worth, was considered a drop in the bucket by analysts, and fueled speculation the E.C.B. will soon be forced to take larger steps.

舍恩霍爾茨接着表示，迅速而有力的應對，有助於解釋爲何與歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)和日本銀行(Bank of Japan)相比，美聯儲距離實現經濟目標更爲接近。週一，歐洲央行公佈了首批購買私營部門資產的計劃，相當於初級的量化寬鬆。但歐洲央行購買的資產僅價值17億歐元（約合130億元人民幣），分析人士認爲只是滄海一粟，此舉也加劇了外界的猜測，認爲歐洲央行很快就會被迫採取更大規模的舉措。

House Republicans regard the bond purchases as a form of reckless meddling, and they have passed legislation to constrain the Fed’s flexibility during future downturns. “I’m afraid the long-term legacy of the policy will reflect the harm it has done to our nation’s seniors, savers, and all Americans faced with greater uncertainty and the possibility of a QE-induced bubble,” Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican, said Wednesday.

共和黨衆議員認爲美聯儲的購債行動是一種草率的干預，他們已經通過了法案，限制美聯儲在未來經濟下行時採取行動的靈活性。德克薩斯州共和黨衆議員蘭迪·諾伊格鮑爾(Randy Neugebauer)週三說，“我擔心，該政策的長期影響在於，它對老年人、儲蓄者和所有面臨較大不確定性的美國人所造成的傷害，以及可能由量化寬鬆引發的泡沫。”

Others, meanwhile, say the economy remains weak, the purchases remain an effective medicine, and the Fed is retreating prematurely. Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, cast the sole dissenting vote Wednesday, arguing inflation was rising too slowly to stop buying bonds.

但與此同時，另外一些人卻表示，目前的經濟仍然乏力，債券購買仍然是一劑良藥，美聯儲的撤出爲時過早。明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)行長納拉亞納·柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)週三投了唯一的反對票。他主張，通脹水平仍然過低，因此不應該停止購買債券。

The Fed started buying bonds for the first time in modern times because it had run out of other options. Under Ben S. Bernanke, then the Fed’s chairman, the central bank cut its benchmark short-term interest rate to zero in December 2008, maxing out its primary means of influencing economic conditions. Mr. Bernanke had argued years earlier that central banks could further reduce borrowing costs by purchasing long-term bonds. The idea was that reducing the supply would force investors to accept lower interest rates from borrowers.

美聯儲在現代歷史上首次開始債券購買，是因爲它當時已經別無選擇。2008年12月，在時任美聯儲主席本·S·伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)的領導下，這家央行將短期基準利率降到了零，把它所擁有的影響經濟環境的最主要手段用到了極限。幾年前，伯南克曾表示，央行應該通過購買長期債券，進一步降低借貸成本。這背後的想法是，通過減少供應，使投資者不得不接受讓借款者支付較低的利率。

Under Mr. Bernanke and then under his successor, Janet L. Yellen, the Fed proceeded to expand its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to $4.5 trillion from less than $1 trillion.

在伯南克及其繼任者珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)的領導下，美聯儲不斷增持國債和抵押貸款擔保證券，從不到1萬億美元，增加到了4.5萬億美元。

Looking back on the results earlier this year, Mr. Bernanke, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution, quipped, “Well, the problem with Q.E. is it works in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory.”

回顧今年早些時候的經濟數據，目前在布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)擔任研究員的伯南克不無諷刺地說，“嗯，量化寬鬆的問題在於，它在實際應用中行得通，在理論上卻行不通。”

The tapering of bond purchases has not shaken the conviction of investors that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates before the middle of next year.

逐漸減少購債規模並沒有動搖投資者的一個想法，即美聯儲不太可能在明年中期之前提高利率。

Barbara J. Cummings, director of fixed income at Boston Private Wealth Management, said the low rates highlighted the relative impotence of Fed policy. “I really believe that rates will continue to stay low because I think that there are other factors that are larger than what the Fed was doing,” she said, citing concerns about Europe that are driving flows of money into Treasuries.

波士頓私人財富管理公司(Boston Private Wealth Management)固定收益總監芭芭拉·J·康明斯(Barbara J. Cummings)說，低利率顯示出，美聯儲政策效果較爲有限。她說，“我相信利率將繼續保持在低位，因爲我認爲還有其他比美聯儲的政策更重要的因素。”她提到，在對歐洲經濟的擔憂之下，投資者將資金用於購買美國國債。

The Fed has not ruled a resumption of bond purchases. But the progress of the economic recovery makes that seem increasingly unlikely. Through September, employers this year have added an average of 227,000 jobs a month, and the unemployment rate has fallen faster than expected, to 5.9 percent. The Fed upgraded its appraisal of labor market conditions in its statement Wednesday, saying that “underutilization of labor market resources is gradually diminishing.” The Fed also sought to downplay the concerns about the slow pace of inflation, saying that the likelihood of persistently low inflation has actually diminished since earlier this year.

美聯儲並沒有排除在未來恢復債券購買，不過經濟復甦的進展讓出現這種情況的可能性越來越小。今年截至9月，平均每月新增22.7萬個就業崗位，失業率的下降速度超出預期，已降至5.9%。在週三的聲明中，美聯儲對勞動力市場狀況給出了更高的評價，稱“勞動力市場資源未充分利用的狀況正逐步緩解”。美聯儲還尋求弱化人們對通脹水平過低的擔憂，稱從今年早些時候開始，通脹長期處在低位的可能性已經降低。

When the Fed first hinted that this day was coming in the summer of 2013, investors panicked and markets convulsed. But the Fed avoided a repeat by loudly announcing a schedule for the retreat and then adhering to it with absolute fidelity. Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, said that he hoped the Fed would emulate the clarity of its retreat from bond-buying as it moved toward raising interest rates. “I do think this has been a success story,” he said. “I’m hoping that when the time comes to raise interest rates that they’ll do an equally clear job of foreshadowing that.”

2013年夏天，美聯儲首次暗示將減少購債時，投資者陷入恐慌，市場出現震盪。但美聯儲公開宣佈了退出的時間表，並且嚴格恪守該計劃，從而避免了市場波動的重演。北方信託(Northern Trust)首席經濟師卡爾·R·坦嫩鮑姆(Carl R. Tannenbaum)說，他希望美聯儲在採取行動提高利率之時，可以像退出債券購買計劃那樣步驟清晰。“我認爲這是一個成功的例子，”他說。“我希望他們在提高利率時，也同樣能給出清晰的計劃。”

But a voice from the past, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, warned Wednesday in New York that the next phase of the Fed’s retreat would not unfold so smoothly. Asked whether the Fed could avoid turmoil, Mr. Greenspan responded, “I don’t think it’s possible.”

但一個來自過去的聲音——前美聯儲主席艾倫·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)——週三在紐約警告說，美聯儲退出計劃的下一階段，不會進行得那麼順利。在被問到美聯儲能否避免市場動盪時，格林斯潘回答說，“我認爲那不可能。”